If Judge Merchan were to hold Trump in criminal contempt for continued violation of the gag order and were to order him to be held in prison, would that help or hurt Trump’s chances at re-election?
Help his chance of being re-elected.
Hurt his chance of being re-elected.
Have no effect on his chance of being re-elected.
0voters
As many times as Trump has violated the order already, I think that Trump is daring Merchan to put him in jail. I can think of only 2 reasons that he would do that. First, to make Merchan back down and give Trump the “upper hand” (in MAGA world). Second, because Trump feels that more people would view the trial as politically motivated and thus help him get re-elected. It could very well be both.
I’m pretty sure it would hurt him. Even among his diehard ranks of enthusiasts, it’s got to dampen support for him by at least a tiny bit. Among centrists and independents, it would hurt him more.
I don’t think the after-trial outbursts were to influence voters for the most part. I think the main purpose was to rile up his Trumpettes to the point that the jurors would have a very real fear of ruling against him.
Placing Trump in jail may not go as intended, Trump may be celebrating the air play on this and the spin he will put on it. Or it may go the other way, Trump has avoided much of the consequences of everything. Even stuff he lost he has not paid, but made other people pay, and it may show him in a weak state.
Short of Jesus descending from heaven and coming out against Trump, nothing will dissuade his hardcore followers. But I think these trials have made Trump appear weaker to some of his supporters and especially his first criminal trial. Trump is constanting whining about how unfair the trial is, he’s complaining about the cold, his follower can’t be bothered to show up to support him, he can’t stay awake, he removes posts when the judge tells him, admitted to reporters that he understands the gag order doens’t prevent him from testifying, and I suspect he will no longer push against the gag order for fear of spending time behind bars. Going to jail for contempt will only make him look weaker. He’s not untouchable. He’s not in control.
The only idiots that would be impressed that Trump got locked up are already Trump voters.
“Trump the criminal” is an image that will influence the non-maga voters that Trump can’t win without. And Trump incarcerated, even for a few hours, will have an adverse effect on the impression those voters have about Trump.
Trump has such a small margin for error in order to win that he can’t fuck nuthin up.
On the one hand, being jailed could help feed the persecution narrative and media frenzy that goes along with it. That could help him.
On the other hand, being jailed would prove that he’s not invincible, that laws do apply to him, that he’s not some sort of superman. That would work against him.
One thing I do know: he is helped every time he gets away with spitting in the face of the courts, prosecutors, and the justice department. Every time he gets away with it, it reinforces the perception that he can’t be touched and he’s done nothing wrong. It makes it harder for the next judge to be the first to serve up a dish of reality. So it needs to happen.
I voted for “no effect”, though I sincerely hope I’m wrong. The central issue here is that by now pretty much everyone knows what Trump is, yet the poll numbers haven’t changed. Whether it’s the grip of the “R” label or the cultism that propelled Hitler and similar demagogues into power, or some combination of the two, I have no idea.
Right; elections are decided by the median voter. Trump being jailed might make his frothing-at-the-mouth supporters froth even harder, but they still only have one vote each, and so there’s not much gains possible from them. But for the middle, who vote for him just because they’re low information and don’t realize just how bad he is, jail time will penetrate their low-information bubbles.
I’m not convinced that would dissuade them: “That can’t possibly be Jesus. The real Jesus supports Trump. It must be the anti-Christ.”
I have no idea if being jailed would help or hurt his campaign. I do know if he is jailed they need to follow all the procedures used for anyone in that position. If a cavity search is standard, then some poor guard is going to have to look up his anus. If wearing an orange jumpsuit is standard, he needs to put the damn jumpsuit on.
I know the pre-lockup procedures are designed to protect the prisoner, guards, and other prisoners. But let’s face it, they also exist to drive home the message that the prisoner has no power in this situation. That’s a message Trump sorely needs to hear.
I voted “No effect…” because I do not accept the narrative being spit-out by the Right that his legal troubles are making him stronger. I call BS on all that - it’s just a trope to make people scared of prosecuting him, and his followers more in-line - it’s only making him stronger among the rabid and no one else . Like the whole “…it may get violent if I lose…” BS - keep pressing the judge’s buttons, Donny-boy!
It is very hard to know. But this sounds reasonable, so I just changed my vote from no-effect to hurt.
I do have one more reason to vote that it will hurt, but most here will not like it. Shaking up a race in an unpredictable way, is slightly more positive for the underdog, and I think Biden is an underdog.
This is my thought too. It bursts the bubble and tells the world yes, he can be put in jail for his crimes.
I think Trump’s fans already think this but I don’t feel like there are a lot of fence-sitters on the idea that the government is out to get him. Trump calls the Biden administration a “Gestapo” regime but I think most reasonable (emphasis on reasonable here) people understand that if Trump was in the hands of an actual Gestapo regime he wouldn’t be on the news every day bitching about it.
Will he be disallowed from bringing his face makeup to jail with him? Because that could cost him a lot of fans when they see him leaving jail looking like an ashen-faced old man.
I’ve wondered about that as well. Plus, his hair. If he’s in the jug for an overnight, then released around 8 for court at 9.30 or so, would he have time to get dolled up?
Or would he show up in court as he is, without his hair and makeup jobs?
Not a chance he’d go into the courtroom without being spiffed up to his usual Alpha Male MAGA superbity! Even if it’s his lawyers who have to play valet and tie his shoes. They’d probably try to bring in his stylist and makeup guy, though.
Seriously, lawyers for criminal defendants try hard to get their clients cleaned up and into sober suits if at all possible.
. Like the whole “…it may get violent if I lose…” BS - keep pressing the judge’s buttons, Donny-boy!