Well the fact that the polls had Hillary ahead and she lost. Polls that had, in the past, been accurate. And I don’t have a cite, but I remember the scramble on the news in the aftermath to explain the discrepancy.
“The postelection shift is also potentially consistent with a subtly different explanation: the so-called “shy Trump” effect. The idea is that Trump supporters took telephone surveys but were embarrassed to divulge their support for an unpopular candidate. If true, the “undecided” voters were really Trump voters all along; they just didn’t want to admit it to pollsters until after their candidate won.”
You wouldn’t necessarily see them as they are shy.
I’ve never understood why the polling was so pervasively misunderstood. She was ahead, slighty, enough that she was marginally favored to win. “Consistent with” a speculation is not at all evidence of. Polling wasn’t broken but understanding of the meaning of the polls was widely dysfunctional.
FWIW analysis six months later showed “not a lot of evidence to support the recurring theory of so-called shy Trump voters lying to pollsters about their true intentions out of embarrassment.” Maybe though some systemic bias that his supporters were less likely to participate in the polls.
The hard core MAGAs will just get more hard core. They will mumble - but not carry out- threads of armed revolutions. Look, they are over armed- but they are fat lazy cowards. It wont happen except maybe a few isolated incidents.
The Dems will vote Joe anyway.
But it is the Indy and youth vote that could be convinced- just like they were in 2020.
No, admit that are okay with bigotry and racism. They arent all bigots- but voting trump they have tactically agreed that they are okay with being the party of bigotry and racism.
I’ve never encountered anyone willing to call themselves racist. And I, in the name of fighting ignorance, frequent far right forums.
Not understanding what racism is seems to be an obligatory symptom of racism. It’s just a generic pejorative to them, so they’ll typically accuse *you* of being the racist, for pointing out their bigotry.
This doesn’t really affect your point though, and is really just an IME nitpick. It’s true to say that there are lots of people openly hateful to people of different ethnicities, faiths etc and love the fact that now it’s being completely embraced by half of the political establishment and media.
Okay, you have a point there. People have learned that racist is a derogatory term, even if they don’t understand what it means. So they’ll say something like “I’m not a racist. I just think that black people are inferior to white people.”
Personally I think Biden should stay away from this one. It speaks for itself. The not insignificant portion of the electorate who might stay home are more likely to be the ones who think that all politicians are corrupt. Gloating over the convictions will play into the idea that the prosecution was politically motivated and fixed. There are other points that need to be hammered like Trumps obstruction when it comes to immigration legislation.
I like to point out one thing: the polls tended to sample likely voters, not electors.
And – since HRC did win the popular vote – I’m not sure it’s safe to fault those polls.
Remember: the Electoral College is the one affirmative action program embraced by the Republicans
To put it in SDMB terms, I’ve rarely seen any Doper cop to being a jerk, but … I’ve seen some who flaunted their jerkish behavior with unending pride
NYT columnist, David Brooks – on the PBS Newshour – mentioned this. His view was that – over the last 1-2 decades – what beat the ‘right-wing populists’ around the world was not engaging at their level, but suggesting policy prescriptions that would benefit the lives of the average citizen.
I quite like that idea for a campaign ad actually, although maybe from a PAC or something so it doesn’t need to have a “I approve this message”.
It’s nice to think the crimes and desperate excuses speak for themselves (and I pretty much agreed with this upthread) but no harm in making it crystal.
Having associated over the years with a large cohort of small-town hard-core Trump-oriented family members, I disagree emphatically. They are quite vocal and explicit in their belief that Black people are inferior and animalistic by nature and that white people are obliged to keep them in their place and hold the line on civilization.
Yeah - I don’t know. I’m no expert political strategist. But I just keep thinking of how taking the “higher road” has so rarely seemed to help the Dems. I guess I’d just like to see them take the gloves off and call Trump - and his supporters - what they are. Force others to own - or try to deny - it.
And the Dems’ “policy prescriptions” so often are just pie in the sky, absent sufficient majorities in Congress and judicial support.
Just this morning, I heard Trump called “Ex President Trump” on the radio. I’d so prefer to hear “Convicted felon Trump.” Or maybe “Lying, sexual predator Trump.” Call that spade a spade.
I concur with the above. I agree that historically the high road has been the right way - but these are different times. TikTok and social media has made people lazier and more gullible. And Trump with his ready-for-violence MAGA loyal forces are a much more dangerous foe that in simpler times. I don’t have a problem with drawing attention to the facts.
Remember Donald Trump’s Primary opponents in the runup to the 2016 election?
“And then there were none.”
Many of them tried to out-asshole Trump, only to find out that there are few bigger assholes around.
I don’t advocate “the high road” because I’d like the Democrats to be nicer people. I advocate it because there’s some global evidence that it might work, and because our domestic evidence is to “Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
the All Grievance, All The Time convicted felon’s exhausting and monotonous ranting, and
the party that has a plan to improve the lives of the average American – no matter who they voted for
should be stark.
The facts, however, definitely don’t need to be left out of the conversation.
My concern would be what the polling shows the Independents actually believe – that:
Trump got a fair trial, the Rule of Law worked as designed, or that
The system was horribly rigged against him, by Biden, his DOJ, and Invisible Democrat ForcesTM
I think it will be important to calibrate both the intensity and the frequency of any Don’t Vote For the Felon messages in order to maximize the chances of swaying the persuadable.
That’s what Hillary did with her famous “deplorables” comment, which may have energized the Trumpists and helped sink her chances. You never win by pointing out to irrational people that they’re irrational.
I concur with other posters it will have an effect, and it will hurt Trump. How much is up for debate but it will hurt him (the idea that it will help him is nonsensical the group of people who think this is a politically motivated witchhunt but aren’t already voting for Trump is miniscule)
A lot will depend on the sentence. If he’s actually in prison from July until after the election (absolutely the most we can possibly expect) then it would make a massive difference. A token non-custodial sentence will make less of a difference, but it will still hurt him. Convicted felony Donald J Trump makes a difference.
The inevitable appeal is also an unknown. The best he can hope for is to find a judge willing to stay the sentence during appeal. But that is not guaranteed. And he’s still campaigning with a felony conviction and appeal hanging over him, which will hurt him.
Again if remains to be seen how much any of these outcomes things will hurt him, but they will hurt him we just don’t know how much. His chances of re-election are worse than they were two days ago.
