I appreciate the sentiment of your response, but this is overstated. Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria are all up in each other’s business in complicated ways that can’t really fully be separated from each other (f’rinstance Syria supports Hizbullah in Lebanon primarily as a means of asserting hegemony but this has the effect of supporting Hizbullah’s threats against Israel; in another instance the presence in Lebanon of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees contributed signally to the Lebanese civil war, and the Lebanese practice of treating the Palestinian like crap makes them one of the more radicalized Palestinian populations in the region). The royal family of Jordan’s particular genius, IMO, is that they’ve managed to more or less extricate themselves from this mess.
That is genius considering the size of Jordan’s Palestinian population – an actual majority of the general population, I believe. How did they do it?!
Partially by kicking the PLO out rather thoroughly & brutally in the 70s; partially by treating the remaining Palestinians well (including the important symbolic step of having a Palestinian queen).
Nobody wants to give a dictator bad news, so they tend to end up surrounded by yes men who give them an inflated idea of what they are capable of. And remember- dictators are just people. After enough time in seriously strange circumstances, anyone can lose touch. This is all Mubarak has known for decades- no doubt he’s nowhere near ready to face the consequences.
Or maybe he’s just a stubborn old coot.
If he steps down now, his place in history is that of a tyrant driven from power (shades of King Farouk). If he can hold on and get past this crisis, then hand over power in a year or two, he can spin his reputation into something more benevolent.
It occurs to me that Farouk’s son is still alive and living in Switzerland. I wonder if he and Gamal Mubarak ever chat. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s surveying the crowds and contemplating going back to try to re-establish the Muhammad Ali dynasty. (“Let’s see what happens to Baby Doc, and then we’ll make up our minds”).
Of course, Muhammad Ali is still around too. Maybe he could be installed as King. That would be awesome.
There is also the important fact that the Jordanian Armed Forces are both loyal to the monarchy and a fearsome fighting force.
For a tiny country, Jordan carries a big stick.
Probably both. I was reading an article somewhere today saying that he had been telling people he wasn’t going to cut and run like the Tunisian. Maybe at this stage he’s in a “fuck the ungrateful [his view] masses.” Or maybe he thinks if he holds on the lack of food will break the demonstrations. Any read out on how much food is on hand?
Actually, the USA does care quite a lot about Syria.
John Kerry has called on Mubarak to step aside. My hunch is this is a signal from the administration. They wouldn’t want to call for his removal directly but Kerry, as an important senator close to the administration, would be a good way to send out a clear message to Mubarak.
I think Mubarak is toast. The military won’t crack down on the demonstrators and the demonstrators won’t back down. It looks like the US is also looking to a post-Mubarak Egypt and perhaps that’s what the former ambassador Wisner has been sent to convey.
I think the key to the situation is that the military is both widely respected by the Egyptian public and also has close ties to the US. This gives the US leverage to shape events and also some assurance that Egypt won’t go the way of Iran.
The military are a big part of the Egyptian power structure. Not to the same level as Pakistan or Iran but the top guys all do very well out of the Mubarak regime and US military aid. I’m amazed they agreed not to shoot at protestors but I think they’re going to want a big say in the running of the country when it looks like Mubarak does eventually go. How keen the protestors will be at this, whether they’ll get the opportunity to vote for politicians who would marginalise the military and do away with the existing power structure in Egypt remains to be seen.
I’m not supposed to say anything more about Israel being apartheid. I’ll leave that to the people who actually lived under apartheid in the stuff i linked.
Saying “we’re better than Saudi Arabia!” isn’t really saying a lot, is it?
Jordan isn’t a democracy and it’s an unpleasant secret police state that’s very similar indeed to Egypt in terms of repression of its people. So saying Abdullah isn’t a dictator compared to somebody like Mubarak is a distinction without a difference.
I think his actions today show how popular he is.
Fuck that shit! What Egypt needs – I hereby invoke the Rule of Cool, which, as a matter of first principles, prevails over all other considerations of national law, international law or political or religious doctrine – is a dictator who will go Napoleon one better: Reinstate the ancient gods and declare himself Pharoah!
Then, tell the Israelis to report for pyramid-building duty. 
[/cue Onion article]
I think his actions today demonstrate that he isn’t stupid. To maintain Jordan’s position as a reasonably stable, reasonably forward-looking country given the neighbours and lack of resources has been skilfully done by Abdullah and his father. To make peace with Israel as a majority Palestinian state (population-wise, if not influence-wise) is no mean feat. Of course, having a Palestinian Queen probably helps a bit.
It’s no no mean feat if you’re not accountable to the people. There is zero chance that a democratic Jordan would have any kind of treaty with Israel.
Apparently Mubarak is going to make an announcement that he won’t run for elections which may happen in September. As I suspected Wisnerwas sent to Egypt to send a message from Obama to Mubarak that he had to make way for new leadership after the election. This is going to be a historic day for the Middle East.
Doesn’t say he’s leaving just that he won’t seek reelection.
Are elections strictly required anyway?
Heh, the dude is over 80 now. How much longer could he be president for, in any case?
Unless they have that Zahi Hawass fellow mummify him …
That’s totally an offensive cultural stereotype.
Modern Egyptian tyrants become zombies.