Mubarak had more to lose than Deng. A lot more.
nm
Let me rephrase that better, now that I came back and read it.
Mubarak had less wiggle-room than Deng. In 1989, there was no world wide web, there was no facebook, there was no twitter, there were very few cellphones, and no cellphone cameras. The backlash for the student demonstrations at Tiananmen were brutal, but they didn’t stick in foreign public opinion for long. “Tiananmen” still means something to the world, but it’s almost an abstract symbol for direct government suppression. And most importantly, the Chinese leadership didn’t really care about foreign public opinion.
Mubarak had to deal with a vastly more interconnected world. Facebook, twitter, all-pervasive cellphone use, 24/7 news cycle, the www, plus the effects of Islam’s more peaceful beliefs on a secular but not atheistic government (as opposed to China). Plus the influence of Europe and the US, which, at the time of Tiananmen, had no real influence in China. Mubarak didn’t have the metaphorical room or privacy to crack down.
Which is all not even mentioning the Egyptian military, too.
I don’t disagree with any of that. However, ever since the army first stood aside as Mubarak’s goons attacked the crowds it has not been clear which side the army would take if push came to shove. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel relieved that the worst case outcome now looks to be new boss = old boss rather than mass murder of protesters.
If there’s a next, I’d guess Algeria, even though the regime isn’t nearly as repressive as Egypt. People are quite pissed, there. I can’t see any other arab regime collapsing.
That said, I didn’t believe that the protests in Tunisia would put an end to Ben Ali’s regime, I wouldn’t have guessed that a next could be Egypt, and at first didn’t believe for a second that Mubarak would eventually step down. So my arabometer seems definitely broken, and my best guesses obviously wrong every single time.
Well, you are French…
A very probable case but not necessarily the worst case. Once massacre was off the table then worst case, albeit an unlikely one, became that the MB uses their head start in organization, and the presence through out the military of some who support them, as a means to become the new boss, and introduce laws to Egypt that may have democratic support but which are against what most of us would consider basic human rights, and create foreign policies that end up causing significant military conflicts in the region between any of the major players. Best case is that the new boss, under the next generation of the military, allows for more democracy in a model that is Islamist tinged but based on more secular principals with guarantees for minority views and rights, freedom of faith, and a recognition of their self-interest in maintaining the peace with Israel. (Best case in how Israeli leadership takes these events is fodder for another thread.)
I would like to believe that that best case is much more probable than the that worst case. I wish I really knew.
BBC says it looks like Algeria may be next, according to the signs. That should be good for them, because they seem at a loss what to report on now. They’re down to finding a seemingly endless string of protesters who are still milling around out there and asking them their opinions. They’re all in favor in Mubarak having stepped down, in case you were wondering.
Algeria doesnt rely on foreign aid or protection. It’s rich enough in ressources to tell the rest of the world to fuck off (I’m talking about the Algerian government here, not the Algerian people). In fact they could probably afford to spend some money on social programs to ease tensions, yet they havent done that.
What’s really really strange is how Morocco doesnt peep a word, the situation there is worse than in either Tunisia or Algeria, and being a king is always a good reminder that you might be a little obsolete (especially when said king is such a dummy). Wonder what’s the feedback in Lybia (I would tend to think it is more a North African chain of events that an Arabic or Middle Eastern one).
Is it worse in Morocco. The news briefs I get are pretty positive (poor but getting better) and certainly in the UK there is a lot of promo for investing there. Never had read their King is a dummy, the contrary actually. But I’ve only passed through on travel, so no profound insights.
Algeria: I’ve read some pretty hair raising accounts of the Army there. Dunno about that place.
Yeah the same kind of briefs were saying the same kind of things about Tunisia even a few months ago. And Mohamed VI is a major dummy, he’d need someone to remind him he is actually king.
I don’t understand how dumb some of these Dictators are, if I was Dictator, and the average joe wanted unemployment benefits and national insurance schemes, or pensions, then why not give it to them. How do these basic benefits in anyway threaten an authoritarian regime?
Usually, there just isn’t any money. Dictatorships aren’t all that economically efficient to begin with, and when you add the costs of an oversized military, loyalty payments, parades and poster’s of the leader’s face, there isn’t much left for anything else - and that’s before they start padding their own pockets.
Ummm, no, private risk group subscriptions were saying Tunisia was having issues but would probably muddle through. Didn’t call the revolution, but were not saying great upbeat things about the political risk angle either. Not the same thing as they’re saying about Morocco which seems much more upbeat. I’m not saying they’re right, but your characterisation isn’t right on them either.
Mmm okay but the risk group subs I get for Africa seem to have a rather better opinion of him. So… do you have a reason for your opinion, or you just don’t like the fellow? I’m prepared to believe he’s a dummy if there is some actual proper reason to, but at this moment, I only have things telling me otherwise.
Alessan’s pretty much spot on in my experience in SSA.
In these markets - admitedly the North Africans are twice to five times richer, but still - the efficiency of Gov mechanisms is pretty shite, and even if you’re desirious of dictator to minimize corruption, it’s damned hard. To do so you have to rock the boat, and you may need that particular boat to prop you up.
And usually such social schemes end up themselves being major sources of graft and corruption. That’s what makes me laugh at the Leftist gits who whinge on about Neo Liberal Diktats in Africa, as if their precious social democracy mechanisms actually work in these countries!
I’m sorry, I didnt know “private risk group subscriptions” had any good track record at predicting revolutions or major social changes. Mohamed VI is renowned throughout Morocco as spending more time wondering where he will next jet-ski than working on any economic reform. The only time he manifests himself is when he orders the closing of a newspaper for not painting him as gloriously as he thinks he deserves (admittedly, that’s better than being tortured for it, still…). Nobody regrets Hassan II, but no one takes Mohamed VI seriously.
Mmmmmmmmm, okay :p?
I’ve read reports that an anti-Gaddafhi rally is scheduled for Feb. 17.
I wouldn’t know either way. I don’t think anyone has predictive powers on the future and firms like the one I work for subscribe for information, not magic balls. Identification of trends, problems, and areas of risk is what they are used for, as well as critical appreciation of data, political changes.
Of course if you’re reading things for magic ball predictions, doubtless you’re going to be disappointed. But so are people who use screwdrivers as hammers.
Okay so… in short you don’t like him but don’t have any particular evidence, cites, or whatnot.
Well, I’m going to trust what I read from professionals for the time being over screeds without any particular provenance or citing any particular sourcing etc.
I have no particular opinion on Mohamed VI, but I am well aware of how he is considered in his own country.
You didnt ask for cites. And I dont suppose you ask your “information subscriptions” for cites neither. “Appeal to higher authority” usually at least requires a source with a checkable record. Considering the very low number of articles in English on the problems of Mohamed VI’s reign, I doubt you could even fact checks their claims.
If you read French, you can find tons of articles on the subject (and if you’re too lazy to bother typing in your research, I could provide a few).
I read French perfectly well thank you very much. My business zone includes West Africa. I’ve never read anything (Fr or Eng) saying he’s stupid. His PM, yes, but him, no. Other critiques, and yes the jet-ski thing. You made the assertion, up to you to support it - GD requires cites here, asking you to support it is the same thing. My point is that I read about Morocco - mostly because the Moroccan banks expanding into West Africa - to know about risk (due to exposure to them). I don’t have a direct reason to care otherwise. From these sources, the picture painted doesn’t match your picture. I am not asserting that picture is correct nor invested in it, but since your assertion -which was very bold and categorical is so far off what I read, I am asking you to support your assertions. In fact I would be very interested in seeing that supported, it would be useful data point. But supporting assertions, that’s how it works here.