Will Tunisian revolution inspire actions in other nations? (Now following Egypt.) [ed. title]

[even_sven]

It amazes me how many people think they know what is better for Egypt than the people of Egypt. Here they are, rioting on the streets because they’ve been miserable for decades, and we are still sitting around saying we were right all along.

Get some balls, America. If we are so scared of terrorists that we are willing to sacrifice our freedom, that’s our choice. But we don’t get to sacrifice other people’s freedom.

[John_Mace]

@Ryan_Liam

I know he was behind it, what I’m implying is that although the USSR was on its last legs, he couldn’t put himself into a position where they could identify ethnic unrest and independence movements with the US president…

Sure he could. Especially in the Baltic States. We didn’t have to necessarily cheer them on, but we shouldn’t have explicitly told them to bide their time.

[Lantern]

An excellent postby Mark Lynch which sets out just how high the stakes are for the US in the coming days.

His basic advice:

The administration has to get out in the next few hours with a strong public statement by a senior official, such as Secretary of State Clinton, which clearly lays out that using violence against citizens is a U.S. red line and which goes beyond “urging” or “hoping” that the Egyptian government responds. It’s really important that the United States be clearly and unambiguously on the right side of these events, and not wait and see too long for it to matter. The public message should be paired with blunt private messages to the Egyptian government that there’s no going back to business as usual, regardless of whether Mubarak rides out this storm in the short run.

But as he notes, the US is in a delicate position and it’s not going to be an easy decision:

Washington’s hesitation isn’t hard to understand: for all the energy and passion on the street, Mubarak’s regime very well could survive and would remember well any wavering of U.S. support. Other regimes in the region might be quite concerned if the U.S. failed to back its long time ally. And popular movements which might replace Mubarak would not likely be as supportive on foreign policy, putting at risk key U.S. policies such as the blockade of Gaza. It’s easy for me, as an analyst, to push the United States to be forceful in support of the Egyptian protestors but I can understand why the administration appears cautious

[Evil_Captor]

@Capitaine_Zombie

Yeah, Turkey comes to mind.

Yes, of course, Turkey, the most typical of Arab states. :rolleyes:

[Tom_Scud]

What, as opposed to Iran?

[Lochdale]

@Capitaine_Zombie

I was being sarcastic. Turkey didnt start stamping out opposition with “old spiked clubs” nor killing women since an “Islamist” government was elected.
Despite so many claiming that was bound to happen.
Islamists can vary considerably, sometimes they’d be more or less Muslim equivalents of the Christian Democrats types, sometimes they’d be conservative but not djihadist types, and sometimes they could also be precisely djihadists.

Then my point is valid. They didn’t because the Turkish army has reigned in the Islamist on numerous occasions. A cursory reading of recent Turkish history would highlight that your statement vis-a-vis Turkey isn’t really applicable.

[rogerbox]

@even_sven

It amazes me how many people think they know what is better for Egypt than the people of Egypt.

I’m an Obama supporter, but I found it highly arrogant, him saying what EGYPT needs.

[Evil_Captor]

@Lochdale

Then my point is valid. They didn’t because the Turkish army has reigned in the Islamist on numerous occasions. A cursory reading of recent Turkish history would highlight that your statement vis-a-vis Turkey isn’t really applicable.

that was my point as well. Even without the Army’s intervention, Turkey has a very large Christian population, and a lot of allies in Europe and, well, the U.S. who might be spurred to act if the place went into full-scale jackbooted Islamic fundamntalism like Iran. It was long considered a part of Europe, if “the weak old man of Europe.” It’s more different from all the other Arab states than any other Arab state, by an order of magnitude.

Even countries with large Christian population, like Lebanon … well,what a party Lebanon was, eh?

The Muslim Brotherhood is very active in Egypt and determined to seize power, and once they get power, they are not about to lose it in a mere election, they are Allah’s boys, anyone who disagrees with them must be destroyed.

[Tom_Scud]

@Evil_Captor

Turkey has a very large Christian population

Turkey does not have a very large Christian population. Turkey has an absolutely minuscule Christian population; about 50,000 Armenians and probably fewer in the “everyone else” category, not counting transient foreigners, out of a population of 75 million or so.

[Baron_Greenback]

@Evil_Captor

Turkey has a very large Christian population

No, it doesn’t. Egypt has a much larger percentage Christian population than Turkey does, like orders of magnitude more. I’m sure you are as capable of looking at the stats on the internet as I am. Please do so.

[Lochdale]

That doesn’t change the fact that the Turkish military has maintained the secular state in Turkey, not the Islamic parties. We’re only seeing a milder form of Islam there because of the military’s constant crack down of religiosity. As such, only a moderate Islamic party can thrive in Turkey and even then the military keeps a close eye of them just in case stray over the line (which really isn’t a great state of affairs but at least they are a mostly secular country).

[Tom_Scud]

That IS the military’s version of the story.

[Inbred_Mm_domesticus]

@Lochdale

Then my point is valid. They didn’t because the Turkish army has reigned in the Islamist on numerous occasions. A cursory reading of recent Turkish history would highlight that your statement vis-a-vis Turkey isn’t really applicable.

Hate to break this to you but most of the coups you seem to be referencing were not against Islamists. Also, the current center-right AK Party can be argued to have expanded civil rights since taking parliament in 2002. They also follow a policy of peace with their neighbors which has helped to stabilize the region.

edit to comment on your last post: The military may have helped stabilize the country in times of chaos, maybe, but its not this secular vs. islamist picture you are trying to draw for us. Currently a huge chuck of the military is being tried for plotting against the AK government yet the AK government has done nothing to hurt Turkish secularism and democracy.

[Evil_Captor]

@Tom_Scud

Turkey does not have a very large Christian population. Turkey has an absolutely minuscule Christian population; about 50,000 Armenians and probably fewer in the “everyone else” category, not counting transient foreigners, out of a population of 75 million or so.

True enough, less than 1 percent according to Wikpedia. Guess I was subconsciously thinking of Lebanon. My error. Carry on!

[Siam_Sam]

Why am I thinking of 1848?

[BrainGlutton]

@Dick_Dastardly

Oh yeah, the Saudis are fine with Israel in reality, or at least the Al Saud family heads are. Saudi have offered Israel airspace and refuelling over their territory if they ever attack Iran, plus a bunch of other stuff. They’re best pals with Mubarak too. Both leaders are American clients.

Any chance this street-rebellion stuff could spread to Saudi Arabia?

[BrainGlutton]

@Siam_Sam

Why am I thinking of 1848?

Because most of those revolutions failed?

[BrainGlutton]

Mubarak says he’ll appoint a new government but refuses to step down. Isis and Osiris, I didn’t realize dude’s 82 years old!

[Xan]

@BrainGlutton

Mubarak says he’ll appoint a new government but refuses to step down. Isis and Osiris, I didn’t realize dude’s 82 years old!

He’s all for freedom and democracy as long as he remains in charge.

[BrainGlutton]

Actually, to be fair, he’s not “refusing” to step down, just giving no indication he will.