I had a discussion today about predicting the future from past trends. In the past, video games tended to simplify extremely complicated and expensive “real life” activities, like driving a tank, white-water rafting, NASCAR, etc. Controls became more complicated, but in general, actual physical activity became more and more restricting. Many people today believe that the future of video games will be more immersive, e.g. entering a virtual basketball game where you actually physically make the motions for dribbling and shooting. You can also point to the Wii to identify a trend where video games are becoming more physical.
In my opinion, I would hate to play a game where I had to actually do the physical motions. If I wanted to run around, for example, I can go outside. I think video games will cater to the lazy strategist who just wants to lie down and only move their fingers.
You forgot “About the same.” There will still be a sizable niche for motion controls, but they will not overtake the market. It will fluctuate based on new technology and motion sensors, but I don’t think there will be a major shift toward one direction or the other.
I think the game manufacturers will dabble with motion controls for quite sometime but it won’t take off in a big way. There will still be a certain subset of people who like it though and so I believe that on the whole, there will be more physical games in the future than there are now, but they will never be a big part of gaming.
Both. You’ll see both games that are more physical than the current crop, and games that are less physical. Hard to say which will be more common, but it doesn’t matter, since it’ll be different folks playing them.
I think the current motion-controlled games will carve out a solid niche in the casual gaming market, but will never become the dominant way that players control most games (barring some major breakthrough in neural interfacing or something). And I say that as someone who is current working on a motion-controlled game for the PS3.
The reason is that except for casual party games, most video games are built around timing and positioning challenges. Whether you succeed or not depends on triggering the right action at the right time and right location. The window that defines the “right time” is usually pretty small, maybe a tenth of a second. The variation between a great and a mediocre player may be measured in hundredths of a second. The window that defines the “right position” is similarly tight – sometimes as small as a few pixels.
The problem with motion-controlled games is that there’s no haptic feedback to help you fine-tune your control inputs. When I’m holding a controller I can *feel *the variable pressure that the joystick exerts on my thumb as I move it. I can *feel *the ramp of resistance as I push down on a button and the soft click as it hits bottom. These very subtle sensory cues help drive the muscle/brain feedback loop that allows for precision timing and positioning.
But with motion control, my control inputs don’t provide haptic feedback. If I move my hand up to make my character jump, there’s no tactile cue to tell me that I’ve successfully initiated the action. I get visual feedback, yeah … but that’s often lagged because of animation. The result is control that feels uncertain and mushy.
Uncertain and mushy control is fine for casual games. But for a lot of other types of games, it really helps a lot to have a real button to press.
I chose ‘less’, mainly because whatever comes after the Wii is probably going to have a more conventional controller. There’ll always be a market for party games, but Hamster gave very good reasons why they’ll never expand beyond that niche.
I think it will be quite a lot bigger. The Kinect videos I have seen seem like a lot of fun I think many people who don’t normally play video games will enjoy such games. My hunch is the demographics of gaming will become a lot more diverse in the coming decades and physical games will play a big part in that. I agree that hardcore gamers will probably stick with traditional controls for the most part.
As to why people may enjoy these games rather than playing outside:
a) They may not have access to decent playing facilities or partners
b) The weather may not be sports-friendly
c) Playing at home may be a lot more convenient for the elderly or children
d) These games provide a fun setting with music, graphics etc. which some may find more enjoyable than outdoor sports
This. And it’s not that far off, either - there’s already a few bare bones prototypes out there. Oh, sure, the teams behind the science effort say they’re doing it for the cripples and people with locked in syndrome… but we all know they play Mind Duke Nukem on their breaks.