Argentina lost against a spirited Saudi squad. They had three offside goals disallowed and the Saudis played very well. At the onset they were deemed second most likely to win, after Brazil, with odds around +550 to +700. Supposedly they attracted a lot of bets.
After the loss, 538 reckoned they only had a 58% chance of getting out of their division. But they recently won the Copa America. It’s not like they are a bad team, though they lacked discipline in their opener.
I was surprised to find the odds had not changed that much, maybe +900. Is this accurate? Are they still strong contenders or is this due to big money already bet on them?
What odds would induce you to bet Argentina wins the Workd Cup in 2022?
I probably would have had them at like 90% to advance before that loss, and now probably around 538’s numbers. So I’d need 1.5x the payout I previously would have accepted. I’d probably want +1200 or better, but I don’t do sports betting and would be fairly risk averse in this situation.
I’m not familiar with the notation (does it have a name, I’m more familiar with n:m type odds) but I’d take 1:10 odds. I’m not a gambler mind you, so we are taking 50 bucks for a laugh, not my life savings.
They will still likely get out of their group, even if they don’t win it, and in the knock out stages it’s a whole different game.
What gets me is the inconsistency between “54% change of getting to the Final 16” (538), down from 98% or whatever, and the fact the odds of winning the whole shebang have barely budged.. Do they know something, or do they just already have too much money staked?