England isn’t looking that solid at all. Same points as Macedonia and Ukraine one point behind. They’ll probably still make it, but there are three teams that are very much in it and the game against the Ukraine (tuesday) is kind of crucial.
Belgium, The Netherlands, Italy and Germany are all but sure of qualification. A few of these will be sure of qualification after tuesday’s round (if the Netherlands beat Andorra for instance).
Nitpick - Montenegro, not Macedonia. The latter are in the same group as the predictably woeful Scotland. Only Belgium and Croatia are in contention there.
I’m going to be in Columbus.
So excited!
Belgium are looking remarkably strong, the best for them since 2002–having failed to qualify in 2006 & 2010. To be fair, they’re in a rather soft group, but are controlling it easily.
England are not controlling its group quite so well. I’m pretty sure they’ll go through, but not with a tremendous amount of confidence at this point. They should be owning their group and aren’t.
We’re looking at the usual suspects to directly qualify: Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain. France are in Spain’s group, and obviously having a rougher time trying to amass more points than Spain, but will probably go through via the playoffs.
Switzerland are leading their group fairly comfortably, which would be good for them having missed the Euros in 2012.
I suspect Portugal will win their group, but if not (which probably means Russia won the group) certainly they’ll be in the playoffs for the final four spots.
Croatia, Sweden, Russia (or Portugal) and Greece (or Bosnia and Herzegovina) are all looking likely to be in the playoffs with France, although it’s a bit early to be sure. The remaining three playoff spots are up for grabs as far as I can tell. Certainly either Montenegro or Ukraine will be in there (or Og help us, England if they fail to qualify directly!)
So far I believe the teams have qualified are the hosts and the 4 automatic qualifiers from the AFC, making the teams confirmed for the WC so far as:
Brazil
Japan
South Korea
Iran
Australia
On Tuesday the following teams can seal their place in the World Cup (in order of likelihood IMO):
Argentina qualify if they beat Paraguay, but can still qualify with a loss or a draw depending on other results.
Costa Rica qualify if they can beat Jamaica and Mexico don’t win, though can still qualify with a draw, depending on other results.
Columbia qualify if they draw with Uruguay.
Netherlands qualify if they beat Andorra and Romania fail to beat Turkey
Italy qualify if they beat the Czech Republic
USA qualify if they beat Mexico and Panama fail to beat Honduras
Switzerland qualify if they beat Norway and Albania and Iceland draw and Slovenia fails to beat Cyprus
Germany qualify if they beat the Faeroe Isles and Sweden fail to beat Kazakhstan
I think the Netherlands are through just by beating Andorra… as they are 6 points clear and have beaten Romania twice already. So even if they would end up with the same amount of points, Holland will stay top.
The head-to-head record only acts as a tie-breaker if teams have the same goal difference and goals scored, so Romania can still qualify automatically even if Holland win- though in reality Holland have already qualified all but mathematically.
Yes, all of the usual suspects in Europe are pretty much through–not mathematically clinched, but is very unlikely they won’t. That is, all of the usual suspects except England (who have been mediocre) and France (who are in a group with Spain).
Of course the big drama in CONCACAF is Mexico’s collapse. They’re not out yet, but it is dire for them, especially as they have tough road games against the USA and Costa Rica ahead of them.
ETA: Any reports from Africa or South America? I haven’t been following those confederations.
I would feel a fair bit of schadenfreude if Mexico didn’t qualify as after they won the Olympics last year there were a lot of Mexico fans ready to anoint them among the World elite, but qualification from CONCACAF is too easy and they’ll probably be in Brazil in 2014.
African qualification is going into the third qualification round in October. The big news is that rank outsiders Ethiopia is going into the 3rd round at the expense of South Africa. Other than that the only other upset is Cape Verde going to the 3rd round at the expense of Tunisia, though last WC’s qualifiers Togo are out as are CAF stalwarts Morocco.
In South America Argentina look fairly sure bets to tie-up qualification on Tuesday and Columbia (who have been excellent in qualifying and are tipped to be next years dark horses) have a good chance to go through on Tuesday too. Chile and Ecuador occupy the other two automatic qualification spots and 2010 semi-finalists Uruguay are in the play-off spot and I think all 3 will qualify for the World Cup (the play-off will be against either Uzbekistan or Jordan).
New Zealand predictably won the OFC qualification tournament and will face the 4th placed CONCACAF team, which may very well be Mexico.
Mexico still have to go to Costa Rica, no picnic as we saw Friday night. The match Tuesday in Columbus will leave the loser, if one, in a fairly precarious position because of the tough matches left for both. But I would be surprised if neither the U.S. nor Mexico fall lower than fourth (and a date with the Kiwis) because fifth place Panama has not shown a great deal of promise. Still, the USMNT certainly doesn’t want to be visiting Panama City in the final match with a qualifying berth on the line.
Correction, the match is tomorrow, Tuesday.
This is what got Matt Besler suspended for the game against Mexico.
They need to be able to review these plays after the game and rescind (and/or assess them) after the fact. The entire refereeing crew in that match was from Mexico when there were nine players sitting on a yellow and a match against Mexico coming in five days.
The two yellows is a stupid rule. I’d be OK with it if you got two in three matches, but not when they’re a year apart and you played a half dozen matches in between.
That was outrageous, I would advocate handing players who dive/simulate injury should retroactively receive lengthy bans if there is video evidence, it would cut it right out. At the moment the risk-to-reward ratio is just too much to expect players not to do it (not that some players aren’;t far worse than others for it, just that it’s inveitable there will be plenty of players who try to get away with it given the woeful level of current policing of it). There’s the old argument that video evidence isn’t available at all levels of the game, but if you cut it out from the top levels then you’ll see it disappear naturally from the lower levels too
Wow. That really deserves a multi-game suspension. For the diver and the referee. Though looks like it was the linesman that actually called for the yellow, as it looks like the referee was on the headset right before pulling out the card (and the referee wasn’t looking at the ‘foul’ when it happened). Which of course makes a mockery of the idea that video review is inappropriate because it isn’t available at all levels of the game. Because I’m pretty sure most youth leagues don’t have fancy microphones for the referee/linesmen.
Wow. I’ve seen some terrible refereeing and some outrageous diving in my time, but that’s just…well, wow.
Italy and Netherlands now qualified from UEFA.
Though saying that, the referee in tonight’s irrelevant match between Scotland and Macedonia failed to notice that the Macedonian goalkeeper was not on the pitch when he signalled the restart after half time. That would seem to be pretty bad refereeing as well.
Wonder what would have happened if Scotland had scored a goal during this time?
USA Mexico 0-0 at the half, Mexico looking stronger, but USA benefits a LOT more from a draw.
Dos a cero! Rinse, repeat.
Team USA rose to the occasion after the half! 2-0! We should clinch a World Cup berth tonight. (ETA as long as Honduras doesn’t lose.)
Mexico have yet to win a single match in the hexagonal…