2-0 US final score.
So does that qualify the US? What the hell is a hexagonal and why are we in 2nd place? We’re winning the CONCACAF, don’t we get an automatic spot? Why do we need the third place team in our whatever-you-call-it to WIN or DRAW? Wouldn’t it be better if they lose?
ETA: What if Honduras loses? Does that mean we’re out or do we just have to win/draw more?
We’re through if Honduras doesn’t lose tonight.
I get that. What happens if they lose?
Zakalwe–I think it’s not so much “if Honduras doesn’t lose” but “if Panama doesn’t get any points.”
By winning tonight, the US now has 16 points (3 for a win, 1 for a tie, 0 for a loss).
The top 3 qualify automatically, so all the US has to do is finish in the top 3. In that way what Honduras does (assuming they finish in the top 3 as well) doesn’t matter.
If Panama loses to Honduras tonight (ie if Honduras wins), they’ll be in fifth with 7 points and in the remaining 2 games cannot catch the US.
If they tie (if Honduras ties), Panama will still be in fifth with 8 points and still can’t catch the US.
But if Panama wins (if Honduras loses), Panama will have 10 points and could tie the US. IF the US lost its last two and Panama won its last two.
And with Mexico losing tonight (to the US) Mexico is stuck at 8 pts (in 4th) and can’t catch the US with 2 games left–so Panama is the only team that can shake the US from the top three.
Hope that helps!
(Hope it’s right, too!)
The US is through!
So–IF Panama wins tonight (and it doesnt look likely) then–
IF Panama beats Mexico on 10-11
And IF the US loses to Jamaica the same day
And IF Panama beats the US on 10-15
THEN
Panama and the US each have 16 points.
HOWEVER
Costa Rica and Honduras each have to end up with that many points too, because if either finishes behind the US then the US is still in the top 3.
Honduras would get 16 pts by beating Costa Rica on 10-11 and Jamaica on 10-15.
Costa Rica then has to beat Mexico on 10-15 to get 18 points, or tie them to get 16 points.
So there could in theory be a four-way tie for first, if my calculations are right.
How any of these ties are broken I have no idea–but it certainly looks conceivable, if extremely unlikely, that the US could finish fourth–if everything went exactly wrong!
(ETA: but of course it didn’t.)
Sorry,** Zalawe**; I was running between things, so didn’t have a chance to respond in depth. Ulf has it covered, though.
Anyway, Honduras didn’t lose (PAN 2-2 HON), so we’re through.
We are going, we are going, we are going to Brazil!
In other news, Italy and Netherlands clinched as well.
ETA: England continue to suffer, gaining only a single point in their draw with Ukraine, but do continue to lead the group they by all rights should be dominating.
Honduras 2 Panama 2, the US is in.
Panama and Mexico are tied on 8 points for the last spot and the right to to play New Zealand in a play-in series. They play each other next on Oct. 10th in Mexico City. Mexico will be playing for their World Cup lives.
WTF has happened to Clint Dempsey? He’s done absolutely nothing lately. He’d be great if they gave points for making pouty white-boy faces, though.
Okay thanks for all the responses. Every site I could find talked about the US needing to win and Honduras needing a win/draw, but not why or what happened if it didn’t work out for the US.
So what the hell is a hexagonal? (other than a six sided shape)
6 teams each playing each other once.
Write the names of all 6 teams in a circle.
Then draw (straight) lines between each pair of teams. You’ll get a nice-looking hexagon with bells and whistles (that is, interior lines). Thus the name.
They play two hexagonals in N America qualifying–that is, play everybody once and play everybody once again. Home and home.
I need to acknowledge an error. Mexico did defeat Jamaica in Jamaica, 1-0. Still, for El Tri to have only a single win in eight matches is extraordinarily poor for them.
ETA: Mexico are on the road against Cost Rica (very difficult but Costa Rica are through regardless), and before that have their home match against Panama, which they really should win, although Panama will be fighting for the 4th spot as well. My feeling is that Mexico will win the playoff spot against New Zealand, not Panama. In any case, Mexico have a real fight on their hands. Panama are likely to beat the USA in Panama for their last match, seeing as the USA are through regardless.
Also, Jamaica are not eliminated yet from consideration for the 4th spot.
To expand a bit, there are far more than 6 countries in CONCACAF… your Canadas, Guatemalas, etc. Only 6 are left now after various previous rounds of qualifying matches, in the final round of qualification each of the 6 plays each of the others twice, home and away, with the top 3 qualifying for the WC, and the 4th playing off vs. New Zealand. This was the 3rd-from-last match, so the US has now locked up one of the top 3 spots with two matches left (so, obviously, had the US lost to Mexico they would have still been plenty alive to go through anyhow).
It’s fantastic to be able to go to Panama for the last match not needing points. In fact, the thought crossed my mind last night that the U.S. could do Mexico a real dirty by not trying very hard down there, especially if Panama earns a draw (or better) in the Azteca 10/11.
Right now, the mysteriously underperforming Mexican squad can’t even be considered a lock to survive the final knockout qualifier with New Zealand. And they’re probably lucky that CONCACAF drew New Zealand instead of Asia (Jordan) or South America (Uruguay maybe, gulp).
Things are pretty hairy for Mexico. Honduras probably only needs 1 point from the last two games to get the third spot.
I don’t see the US tanking the Panama game. They might take a light squad though. I’d have no problem with getting some of the marginal guys better looks before a final squad is really wrapped up.
I didn’t mean to suggest the USA would tank against Panama. That’s not the American way. But since the match is in Panama, and since Panama will likely have 4th place on the line and a reason to fight, but the USA is through to the World Cup and has only pride to fight for, and as you note might send a light squad, I think it’s reasonable to supposed Panama could be favored to win.
The following teams have now qualified:
Brazil
Japan
South Korea
Iran
Australia
Netherlands
Italy
USA
Costa Rica
Argentina
Mexico are lucky that being it’s virtually impossible for them not to qualify from their confederation. 1 win in 8 games and they still should do it.
Every time I start thinking I can get into soccer, something like that reminds me that the officiating needs to be fixed. I realize that resources vary by nation, but there’s no reason the top levels shouldn’t have reasonable levels of review. At the bare minimum, they need more officials on the field. The NFL has seven officials on the field to watch 22 players. Soccer has 3 officials watching the same number of players, who stretch from one end of the field to the other. There’s no way the official can watch all players. Clearly, none we watching Belser.
You don’t even need another official, you just need it to be legal for the fourth official or whoever to water video and tell the ref through his earpiece that the guy rolling around on the ground is a piece of shit.
So something I’ve long wondered about. The US Men’s Team has like 9 players with 1 yellow. In next game, shouldn’t some of those guys deliberately get a yellow to “clear the slate” so to speak?