Well…no. The situation had changed. It HAD been over a decade after all. Saddam had time to rebuild his shattered force (as well as improve their completely shattered morale…recall, some of these guys were attempting to surrender to unmanned drones and such in the first Gulf War). In addition, Saddam had time to form paramilitary groups in Iraq (like his Fedayeen), as well as to distribute literally tons of small arms stashed throughout the country.
In addition the mood of the people there had changed. When we went in during GW II they were wary and sullen. After all, we had encouraged them to rise up and then basically left them to face the music on their own. Had we gone in when we had the army there we would have been HELPING them rise up…instead of unilaterally invading after they had already been crushed. A DECADE after they had already been crushed.
And this brings up the last point. When we went if for GW II, for whatever (boneheaded) reason the administration tried to do it on the cheap. We went in with far fewer assets than we obviously SHOULD have. We had less tanks, less ground troops, less planes, etc etc. However, in GW I we had a HUGE army on the ground there. More than double the size of the eventual invasion force. And it was THERE…already payed for. And it had ALREADY crushed Saddam’s army in the field, sending it fleeing back to Iraq in complete disarray. Also, as you pointed out, Bush’s daddy was a bit wiser than the son…and I have no doubts that, given this vastly larger force, there would have been no months of power vaccume that we saw in the second gulf war when we disbanded the Iraqi army but didn’t have the force to fill that vaccume ourselves immediately.
One last thing. You may remember that Osama Bin Laden chap, yes? Why was he (supposedly) so pissed at us? Well, because we ended up leaving part of our army in his holy land. At the time though, he probably wouldn’t have given two shits had we invaded Iraq…as long as we took our infidel asses out of Saudi and his holy land. So…its pretty doubtful that there would have been a flock of foreign fighters streaming into Iraq either. Saddam wasn’t exactly popular in the region during the first gulf war after all.
I agree. It was one of the big mistakes Bush I made in fact (IMHO), and a definite black mark on the US for it. Of course, Bush, by bowing to international pressure to let the war end, really had very limited choices on what he COULD do. The No Fly Zones were one of the things we tried for instance…and we got blasted even for that eventually. But I agree…we shouldn’t have encouraged them to rebel only to pull the rug out from under the poor bastards by not fully supporting them.
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but aren’t most elections within a few percentage points?? I mean, a ‘few percentage points’ could be literally millions of votes nation wide. I didn’t think that the election in 2004 was particularly close as these things go…certainly nothing like the cliff hanger 2000 election.
-XT