This is a fork from the thread on the (alleged) coming US civil war, where @Aeschines stated:
I have my doubts.
Let’s assume for the moment that, say, the state of Washington, south of British Columbia, secedes from the US by joint state-Congress resolution. (i.e. - not unilateral secession, unlike the Late Unpleasantness, but a negotiated exit).
I suggest Washington because my understanding is that it’s a left-coast liberal state, so a prime candidate for Aeschines’s proposal. I doubt very much that states like Lower Alberta (ie Montana) and Lower Saskatchewan (ie North Dakota) fit Aeschines’s proposal.
With that out of the way, would Washington state want to become Washington province? and would Canada want it?
Here’s what the good folks of Washington would need to accept to become part of Canada:
- give up the right to bear arms; anyone who wants to own a long-gun would need to get a federal possession and acquisition licence; anyone who wants to own a handgun would need to get a restricted possession and acquiisition licence, and could only lawfully possess the handgun in their home and at the firing range, and in transit; no concealed carry of a firearm; no open carry of a handgun, except when going to and from the range;
- give up the criminal law power; all criminal laws are enacted by Ottawa;
- give up the state militia/National Guard; military power is the exclusive purview of Ottawa;
- give up republican form of government; Elizabeth II, Queen of Canada, is the head of state for Washington province;
- give up governor/legislature form of government, instead adopting parliamentary government;
- all Members of the Legislative Assembly of the province of Washington, and all federal Members of Parliament from Washington, have to swear allegiance to Her Majesty, her heirs and successors;
- give up two senators in a powerful upper house, and instead get an undetermined number of senators (probably six) in an unelected upper house that has much less political power;
- give up a direct vote for President, in both the primaries and the general, in exchange for indirect vote for the Prime Minister, with no primary;
- abolish private or employer medical health insurance and opt into a universal health care system; not mandatory, but if Washington province doesn’t do that, it pays taxes to Ottawa but doesn’t get the benefit of matching federal health care money under the Canada Health Act;
- provide public funding for francophone schools, equivalent to that of the other public schools;
- accept a much smaller military, and less international military influence;
- have judges of the Washington superior trial court and court of appeal appointed by Ottawa;
- accept the final appellate jurisdiction of the Supreme Court of Canada, which is a general court of appeal, including questions of purely provincial law; not restricted to federal laws and federal constitutional matters.
On the other hand, Washington province would get a much larger proportion of the House of Commons than it currently has in the House of Representatives, so that presumably would be a plus.
So, Question 1:
Would the good folk of Washington state want to take those terms, in exchange for no restrictions on abortion? or for the broader reasons Aeschines sets out?
On the other side, would Canada want Washington state?
Let’s start with raw politics: population and representation. Washington’s population is 7,887,965, according to Wikipedia. That would automatically make it the third most populous province, displacing BC to fourth place (pop. ~ 5,071,000) and coming after Quebec (pop. ~ 8,485,000). That would mean Washington province would have the third largest group of seats in the House of Commons, which would mean a major shift in the political dynamic overnight. Would other provinces want such a major change?
Specifically, Quebec would be highly concerned by it, because the population of Washington state is largely anglo. Again according to Wikipedia, 82.51% speak English as their mother tongue. The next largest group is Spanish-speakers, at 7.9%, followed in descending order by Chinese (0.94%) (57,895) Vietnamese (0.84%), Tagalog (0.83%), Korean, 0.80% (49,282) Russian, and 0.55% (33,744) German (0.55%), and Japanese (0.39%). Francophones come in at 10th place, at a mere 0.33% of the total population. And, if Washington province is anything like the western Canadian provinces, the second language spoken by those linguistic groups will be largely English, not French. So Quebec, always concerned by its demographics in Canada, would likely be strongly opposed, in my opinion.
Then there’s general political culture. Washington province may have left the US, but its population will have American political culture as their background (eg guns, military, republicanism). Would Canadians want to absorb that large group into our political culture? Would we find our political culture changing to a more “American” viewpoint, based on the politics of our new third-largest province? That’s hard to speculate on, but it would certainly be an issue.
And why would the views of other provinces matter? because in Canada, the federal Parliament cannot unilaterally add new provinces to Confederation. Under the amending formula in Part V of the Constitution Act, 1982, new provinces can only be admitted by the joint resolutions of the federal Senate and House of Commons, and by two-thirds of the provinces which together have at least 50% of the national population. That would mean that Washington wannabe-proivnce would need to get most of the provinces onside, agreeing to a reduction in their power in the House of Commons, and with Quebec likely opposed. (Quebec doesn’t have a veto, but with roughly 20-25% of the population, its opposition would be significant in meeting the 7/50% threshold.)
So Question 2: would Canadians agree to admit Washington province? For the reasons given above, I have my doubts.