Would US troops fire on Canadian civilians?

My friend, the frog has already been boiled, the water evapourated, and we are talking while the glop has caught fire. Telling me that you still hold a majority in cities means so little. I see what the political reality exists and telling me that you have: “Big blue cities in red states.” while “There are no big red cities in blue states” … it means so little.

They are traitors who have won the American public over to their unhinged pro-apocalyptic, conspiracy laden, aggressive minded policy and views. Yes. However, it was a failure for American liberals that this happened.

This would be like if the Trucker protest stormed Parliment Hill and was pardoned by our new Prime Minister Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party of Canada, who also (btw) stuffed our Supreme Court full of cronies and started chaining up families who over stayed their visas for show and sport…

My friend you have lost so much here. Trump won, and now we must watch as his people enact a wacked out roadmap to some dream right-wing dystopia. You can’t make this stuff up.

I do blame American liberals. There is a lot of denial, yes, but what most gets me is the almost culpable inaction in the face of right-wing wackjob fascism. I can’t help but think to the novel To Kill a Mockingbird where the beloved Atticus Finch, ultimately, was a misguided tool who had blind faith in a system that gave no justice to Tom Robinson.

Is that what American liberals ultimately want?

To add to @RickJay, if you asked me in 2015 what the odds are of a US invasion of Canada I would have given you negative numbers and then laughed out loud. The turn around in such a short period of time was previously unimaginable.

You may have heard of the Civil War. The country fractured along state lines. I think the chance that the country will come apart, through schism, secession, or an actual hot war, is more likely than the US invading Canada. Further, blue states like California are powerful and can push back against aggression by the federal government. That’s why I’m talking about this.

You seem to be enjoying your fatalistic take on the US. No hope for this bunch of hozerzzz! (Do you guys still say that?! I learned my Canadian from Bob and Doug.) That’s fine if that’s your thing. It’s not productive in my book. I am gearing up for the big fight, at least mentally, at this point.

The only way to have prevented it would have been dropping the role of Liberal and accepting the role of revolutionary. That will probably be necessary regardless of whether Trump can succeed in the immediate future.

There is a bit of “it can’t happen here–we’re just better” thinking at play, it seems to me. You’re not, and it can. Look at Austria in 1938. If MAGA takes full autocratic power in the US, it will work to build a similar party in Canada so that your own citizens accept Canschluss. You already have a nice RWNJ base of your own to build on. We are all in this fight together, IMHO. No need for the finger-wagging and tsk-tsking.

The Democrats are a political party, not a counter-fascist militia. Biden won in 2020, and the GOP continued their support of Trump out of pure self-interest. But things were mostly normal and functional 2021-2024. The one thing to do that Biden didn’t have the perspective or stones to do was throw Trump in prison no matter fucking what. Other than that, I’m not sure what could have been done.

Now we’re about to find out what needs to be done to stop this shit. And stop it we will.

Actually, the US starting an actual civil war is probably the situation in which you’re most likely to end up invading us. The shooting will have already started, and if you’re shooting Americans, shooting some Canadians isn’t really that big a leap. Plus, there will be two sides, and either or both could invade us.

And that last bit is actually possible. If an army in the field is getting its ass kicked, and the border is just over there… well, it wouldn’t be the first time someone tried crossing the border to avoid a loss. And the other army would probably pursue them this time.

I think you are correct. Although, if it gets that far, I think we would be in a world war to defeat American fascism at that point.

No, I think everyone except Canada and Mexico will be keeping their heads down, hoping not to attract any attention. Anyone trying to interfere would face the prospects of being nuked, since the US conventional forces will be tied up killing each other.

What happens in the aftermath is up in the air, but I think the rest of the not-North American world will be happen to just see how it turns out.

There would be a strong motivation to do this, yes.

I can almost guarantee you that China would begin its invasion of Taiwan if the US were in such chaos:

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫, Chèn huǒ dǎ jié)

When a country is beset by internal problems, such as disease, famine, corruption, and crime, it is poorly-equipped to deal with an outside threat. Keep gathering internal information about an enemy. If the enemy is in its weakest state, attack them without mercy and annihilate them to prevent future troubles.

If that happens, we will de facto be in WWIII with absolutely unpredictable consequences.

But our generals are not stupid: they would anticipate such a move by China, and, further, I don’t think they would want to spill their power out in service to a useless civil war. Thus, before a hot civil war could happen, I think they would depose Trump.

You’re assuming the generals would still care about Taiwan at that point. By the time any of this could happen, US domestic and international politics will have been utterly changed.

Like the old saying, it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

We will soon find out how many of our generals are patriotic Americans and how many are MAGA toadies.

I fully expect trump to start purging the flag officers pretty soon. That will be a huge tell that he intends to misuse DoD in defense of something other than the Constitution they’re sworn to defend. The purge beginning is also probably the last opportunity the actual American patriots at the top of DoD will have to decapitate the regime before it decapitates them.

Based on trump’s moves against the federal bureacracy to date, it won’t be a gradual process. It’ll be one order one time no-notice to lock all the non-trumpies out of access to their jobs.

Wait, Bannon (and Trump) believe global warming is real?!

No, of course not, the Northwest Passage is simply opening up now so as to make their destiny manifest even unto the Arctic Ocean.

Probably Goddidit, or something.

Yes, timing will be everything. If it’s the current crew, they will care. If Trump has purged the military by then, perhaps they won’t.

I agree that this could happen very quickly.

Agreed. They will want to save their own asses, but they will also know that what Trump does is unpredictable after the purge and could result in WWIII, etc., so that will be an additional motivation to depose him.

Agreed. And it will probably be very clumsy and inept, making it even more tempting for the military to take special action.

Some of us Americans have few such delusions. I was in college when Kent State happened.

The states lack the military force or nuclear weapons to stand up to the Federal government. And yes, I do think that the fascists would not only be willing but enthusiastic about using nuclear weapons on California. Given how hated California apparently is I’m not even sure how much pushback they’d get.

They might “care”, but if Trump orders a large withdrawal of troops, would they be able to do much? Trump is big on hating having to “pay for other countries defense”, so I could see him ordering a world wide draw down of US forces abroad, well before a civil war could start. What few troops are left overseas might find themselves an afterthought to The Big Show.

That’s true, but again, is the military going to attack California or take its side? (Yes, I know you’re going to say, “They would butcher the entire state with relish–aww haww haww!” I disagree.)

The military will follow orders.

Question-begging. That’s what this whole thread is debating in the first place.

It’s not question begging, it’s a Bayesian inference.