One Trump term I guess. Tough decision, I think he’s unable to do anything significant, but I worry about his ability to handle the unavoidable. I think Pence is a dangerous fool, a true believer who will strike a deal with the devil and his minions in congress to do great damage to this country. Trump’s damage has been temporary so far because it has not resulted in the passage of law, it’s easy to reverse executive orders and administrative polices, and change the conversation. It’s far more difficult to undo legislation.
I’m Canadian, and I think the same.
I think it’s a wash - Trump is much worse in foreign affairs, Pence is much worse domestically. Trump has the ability to turn a conflict with another country into a quagmire or nuclear exchange, which I doubt Pence would be as eager to do (though Iraq was a bipartisan effort). But Pence knows how to work as a politician to actually get domestic legislation passed, which Trump has failed at consistently. With Pence in charge, actually dismantling protections for vulnerable people becomes much more likely.
I think you are vastly underestimating just how bad the Democrats are at winning presidential elections. If they don’t get lucky and have a charismatic candidate come from out of nowhere and sweep the primaries, I have no confidence in their ability to beat even a fractured Republican party. They were telling themselves Hillary was a sure thing just last year!
Trump would destroy our foreign standing in the world, and gut but not eliminate our cherished programs and institutions. Pence would pursue a Neo-Con policy and utterly dismantle/eliminate our cherished programs and institutions. Trump pays lip service to the extreme religious right, Pence is one of them.
Equally horrible in different ways. One is an international embarrassment, crude bigot, and imbecile, the other is a calculating “shock the gays” sociopath with genuine charm.
As I said back during the election, Trump is better than Pence.
Trump is too stupid to get anything done. For any laws to change, you need congress to go along and that requires a majority (and often a supermajority), either of which requires some amount of sanity. Stupid stuff simply can’t become law.
Pence can actually cause things to change, and he’ll actively change things in favor of theocracy - which is antithetical to the foundations of the nation, but massively popular to most of the populace. It’s an easy goal to make become real, even if you aren’t smart. And Pence is smart.
My hope is that Trump will last for about three years, resign or be tossed out, and Pence will take over as a lame duck to a Democratic congress.
There is the threat that Pence would win in 2020 even in this circumstance. Shift 10,000 votes across three states in 1976 and Ford wins even despite Watergate being only two years prior. And let’s be honest, Pence is more charismatic than most of the crew the Democrats are offering in 2020.
You seem to be implying that there’s some option out there where the threat of a horrible outcome isn’t a real possibility?
I prefer a one-term Trump to a two-term Pence. I can’t see Trump winning in 2020; I can see Pence winning though simply because he’s not Trump.
The Democrats wouldn’t need a charismatic candidate to beat a Republican party that had just impeached Trump. In that situation, a lot of Trump’s supporters are going to see Pence and the Republicans as the enemy, and stay home at least (if not voting for Pence’s opponent out of spite). Even with a candidate like Clinton, if ten percent of Trump’s voters had stayed home, she would have won in an epic landslide.
To be precise, 20 minutes. Trump could do more damage in 20 minutes than Pence could do in 7 years. And every 20 minutes of Trump’s presidency is a fresh opportunity for him to do that damage.
+1
How can I continue to tell people that supporting Trump was an evil action, and one that will send Christians to hell if they don’t repent, if I then support him now? It’s not like he’s changed. He’s still evil, and supporting evil is still evil.
Pence is wrong. Trump is evil. I can support someone who is wrong. I cannot support someone who is evil. One will send me to hell if I don’t repent. The other will not.
It really is just that simple to me, and I don’t get why it wasn’t that simple to all these “Christians.” We know there is a real, genuine Right and Wrong.
Not to get into a theological debate, but supporting or opposing Trump isn’t what puts someone in or out of Hell.
This is precisely what makes this poll so intriguing.
And if the Democrats go into such a situation as sure of victory as they were with Hillary Clinton, I’m absolutely positive they have the will and ability to lose the election. I mean, sure you’re confident that the Democrats would win in that situation, but last year the Democrats were so confident of a Hillary victory that 538.com was lambasted for their absurd prediction that Trump had one in three odds of winning the race.
I’m also really not sure how you can consider ‘if ten percent of X’s voters stayed home’ to be a meaningful statement; aside from really exceptional elections like Reagan’s sweep, 10% of the winners voters staying home would swing the election in modern presidential elections.
As succinctly stated above, I’d rather have Trump for one term, than Pence for one week.
Trump is a blithering idiot, but really, he doesn’t have a lot of power; he is theatrical, but none of his ideas (if indeed he has any) are going to be forced upon the people of the US. Even if he does start a war with the DPRK.
Pence however, is truly scary. Ultra ultra ultra right, religious, racist homophobic, but reasonably intelligent (at least compared to the Donald), and he has a voice that resonates with some of the most scary groups in the US.
Another thing with Pence is that as successor to Trump he’d be feverishly embraced by the MSM as a welcome relief and return to “normalcy”, and he’d get a honeymoon period in which he could, with a pantingly eager GOP-controlled Congress, get a lot of really horrible legislation shoved through.
A lot of people in other countries know that enough Americans are self centered and mean enough to elect someone like Trump.
Pence would turn the country in the wrong direction. He would make the country worse.
Trump is destroying our political and social norms. He’s making the people worse.
Apparently, Trump just cut his first deal with Democrats.
I laid out the possibility, before Trump was elected, that he might become a very centrist President. To date, he hadn’t shown any potential for doing that. But fundamentally, his daughter and step-son who he considers to be himself incarnate are both Democrats. Trump’s idea of what health care should be like is based on Democratic ideas. To the extent that Trump is a Republican, it seems mostly be due to his not understanding that things written in newspapers can be gasp lies. If it says it on Breitbart, then it must be true! (There’s a clip of Trump trying to defend a Breitbart article that John Oliver included in one of his videos where it’s painfully obvious that Trump genuinely doesn’t understand how something which is written in a news article can be false.) With John Kelly sitting between Trump and most news sources, he’s about to start operating in a world closer to reality - which means accepting that the Republican party is being stupid on a whole host of issues.
As a man looking for popularity, moving to the middle is liable to be his best chance for wide support from the general populace. It’s also the easiest way to actually accomplish things in government (despite most of the members of government being too partisan to take advantage of it), since even your average partisan hack is not completely insane, leaving you with a majority in congress who are - at the end of the day - sane (though partisan). Any sane measure that goes in front of them, they are liable to pass. Getting 100% of Republicans to vote with you is a lot harder than getting 55% of people from both parties. Granted, it’s possible that the parties will team up against him rather than fall prey to reasonable legislation getting passed, by a non-partisan politician (after all, that would spell their doom). But the end result of that is the government does nothing for 3.5 years and most people would be just as happy if the government simply didn’t do anything but maintain the status quo. Governors who simply veto everything are quite popular. A centrist President, trying to pass reasonable legislation, and being ignored by the Legislature would also be quite popular.
Trump won’t be able to pass anything that touches on partisan pressure points, but anything which would touch those points wouldn’t be popular with large chunks of the general public either. And there are plenty of centrist solutions for health care, immigration, criminal justice, national defense, etc. that don’t touch on any of those points, it’s just that the two parties only ever offer solutions that antagonize their opponent.
If John Kelly can keep Trump in line for the next 3.5 years, it’s entirely plausible that he could become a reasonably good President.
That’s an attractive analysis, Sage Rat, but it’s undercut by what appears to be Trump’s Secondary Directive (the Prime being his own self-aggrandizement): the destruction of everything his predecessor accomplished, the spiteful erasure of all things Obama. Any initiative which seems to retain even a vestige of the Evil Kenyan’s accomplishments will fail bigly with him.