WTF happened to improve Trump’s odds of re-election?

I fall into the white Gen Xer category and live in Wisconsin. It’s anecdotal, but in my area in Wisconsin the Trump support seems very high. I’ve come to realize in the last three years that some of my friends are more than a little racist. They seem to be clinging to the idea that Trump will take things back to this amazing time of prosperity before Obama. I don’t remember those years the same way.

This is where I think the Dems could be blowing it. They seem to be forgetting “It’s the economy, stupid!” They are allowing this idea that Trump is somehow better for the economy to proliferate. They are not pushing back on this enough, even if it’s simply not true.

They are also allowing the message that the economy is currently in shambles due to the virus, and that it’s outside of Trump’s control. Many Trump backers will vote for him due to the belief that he will be better at bringing the economy back once we’re past the pandemic. Again, this idea that Trump is better for the economy should continually be refuted, and I don’t think the Dems are doing nearly enough to dispel this notion.

Nah, if Trump really was the authoritarian everyone fears, he would have jumped all over this pandemic and closed down everything with hard quarantines, like the Chinese. But that doesn’t play to his base, whereas “I’m the law and order President” they eat right up.

If someone comes to you and says, “Hey asshole, I need you to help me fix something,” is your response going to be, “Sure, what can I do?”, or is it more likely to be “Fuck you”?

That much is true.

Really? I thought we lived in a democracy and elected our officials.

You misunderstood. I am saying that protestors are making some counterproductive moves, but then Trump responds by shooting himself in the foot. It’s surprising he can still find any foot to shoot, but he keeps doing it.

I don’t require people to agree. But I take responses like “it’s not about you” and

to mean my opinions aren’t welcome and I should shut up.

Hey, remember that time Colin Kaepernick protested in a peaceful and respectful way, and people said “Huh, maybe I should consider the point he’s trying to make”? Yeah, me neither.

You have given your opinion. People have patiently explained why they think your opinion is wrong, or at least short-sighted. You do not care, but continue to repeat that opinion over and over.

If you insist on rejecting people whose thoughts on the subjects you must trust or consider important enough to consult on the subject then what was the point? Do you think that your opinion is so strong that all of us would change our minds?

Or do you think that you haven’t been heard and that you need to resort to stronger methods to get your opinion across? That’s sure what it feels like, and it sure is ironic.

In fairness to Irishman pretty much everyone is doing that. Given the slant of the Dope it’s just that there are more people to disagree with him than vice versa.

Exactly. at this point anyone who is paying any sort of attention to the news knows who George Floyd is and what happened to him. If instead of the civil unrest, his death was protested with candle light vigils, it might have made the local news where the vigils were held, but would have been forgotten two weeks later.

Similarly, I don’t think that we would be getting the names of army bases and football teams changed, if people hadn’t started pulling down statues on their own.

As another example take the occupy wallstreet protests. They have been widely ridiculed and deemed a failure. But they got the issue inequality and the one percenters into the national dialogue.

Saw his name spraypainted on a hoarding in Edinburgh, Scotland two days ago, next to posters for an art exhibition titled “I Can’t Breathe”. The whole damn world knows George Floyd because of these protests. They’re not nice or polite, but they’re working in a way “nice and polite” never did.

This has become a distraction from the thread topic.

I’m not convinced anything has happened to improve Trump’s chances of winning.

The riots have been very effective:

  • Violent crime is way up, due to attacks on the police and their subsequent removal from street policing. The cities that accepted the demand to defund the police are being particularly hard hit. And most of the people affected are minorities.

  • Gun sales are skyrocketing, as is membership in the NRA. 27% of all gun owners bought their first gun in the last six months, and most of them are city dwellers. The ‘mostly peaceful’ protests have killed gun control for a long time.

  • The rich are fleeing the cities, and taking the tax base with them. This hits blue states particularly hard, because they rely more on progressive taxes. New York gets 50% of its taxes from 1% of the population. If those people leave (and many are), New York is screwed, and all the minorities in New York especially so.

  • The breakdown in order in the cities may just do what Republicans have never managed: drive middle class minorities away from Democrats.

With more ‘successes’ like they’ve had, they’re going to get Trump re-elected.

Welcome to the world of ‘wicked problems’ and complexity, where trying to get what you want through force may just blow back in your face.

Just to quibble–according to crime analyst Jeff Asher, violent crime in aggregate is down ~2% compared to last year. Murder is up, but everything else is down. Weird year for crime, what with the lockdowns and such.

I’ll take this one. That gun sales are spiking is true and yet totally misleading.

The big spike comes back in March, when the first panic hit. It was fairly shortlived, and sales decreased markedly by April.

Admittedly, sales increased again after George Floyd’s death. Yet they stopped increasing right after Trump’s idiotic photo op in Lafayette Square. You might infer that most people with brains realized where the real threat was coming from.

The 27% figure, however, is the opposite of the truth.

Yes, a quarter of people with guns bought more. Not first gun buyers. People who already had been brainwashed by the NRA rushed out to spend money they needed desperately to compensate for lost wages on totally useless hunks of metal to fill in gaps created by their missing brain cells.

Thanks for alerting us to this, Sam. Ya done good.

What cities have actually defunded the police- that effects the police and crime NOW? From what I can see- None. Oh, the City of LA is gonna cut the police budget next year. So are several other cities- here is a list At Least 13 Cities Are Defunding Their Police Departments

All are cities that have voted to cut police budgets in the next or upcoming budget. None have cut past police budgets- because, well, that is pretty much impossible. None of these cuts can have any effects on the numbers of police on the street now.

And the budget cuts are small, the fat as it were: The country’s two largest cities, New York and Los Angeles, approved budget cuts weeks after protests began—New York slashed… $1 billion from its 2021 budget totaling $88.9 billion (reallocating $354 million to mental health, homelessness and education services) while Los Angeles approved a $150 million budget cut from its $1.86 billion proposed budget.

So the NYC cut is about 1%. So is the LA cut. 1 freaken percent.

Cite as to increased violent crime? Since- the FBIs stats dont even come out until next year?

The gun sales started due to the virus.

Cite as to rich fleeing the cities due to unrest?

You continue to convince me that whatever world of ‘wicked problems’ you are existing in, is not one I share with you, for things are happening in your world that are not happening in mine.

Perhaps that’s the cause of the whole “fake news” thing. The widespread use of wireless has caused signals to get crossed with those of an alternate dimension.

Right on cue, an excellent op-ed in the NYT…

nm - wrong forum

Do you know what a ‘wicked’ problem is?

For example, if your olan is to gain power, pack the courts, and force through ‘progressive’ change that 50% of the country doesn’t want, you may find yourself creating organized opposition that didn’t exist before. If you promise to take the money of billionaires, you may find them funding your opposition. If you try to pass unpopular laws before convincing the people they are good, or you pass major, society-changing legislation on a party ljne vote, you may find the opposite party sweeping the House and Senate and neutering you.

Or in this case, if you think rioting in cities, toppling monuments and burning federal buildings is a path to a progressive future, you might find that all you really did was kill the gun control movement and cause all the people with money to flee the cities you desperately want to spend money on. Oh, and re-elect Trump.

I’m not familiar with the term, no. That doesn’t change the fact that in the reality I exist in only 40% of the country is anti-progressive, and there are other marked differences as well.

I prefer the reality I exist in, honestly.

Republicans have never governed on economic parity and socioeconomic mobility; they’ve tried to sell their platform by saying “Hey, you see that Steve Jobs guy and that Elon Musk dude over there? You could be like him if you work hard and have the right genetics.”

Confiscatory wealth taxes, encouraging burning and pillaging of cities, racial hypocrisy, open borders, abandonment of classical liberal values, socialism, etc. vs. a nut who tweets too much? It’s a hard choice but not THAT hard.