What historical evidence?
Fact- Intelligence knew a Japanese attack somewhere was soon. A big fleet was out. But yes, we didnt know where or on whom. Maybe even a maneuver, but not likely.
Fact- everyone thought it would be the Phillipines.
Fact- despite that, and despite the fact the Mac had NINE hours warning, he was still caught with his pants down “by surprise”. Explain that.
https://www.pacificwar.org.au/Philippines/Japanattacks.html
MacArthur’s inaction and failure to follow war orders causes the loss of American air power in the Philippines
Within minutes of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which occurred at about 2.30 a.m. on 8 December 1941 (Manila time), the news was received at the headquarters of the United States Asiatic Fleet in the Philippines. Admiral Hart was informed at about 3.00 a.m. The news was not passed on to the army. Shortly after 3.00 a.m. on that morning, General MacArthur was informed of the Japanese attack by his Chief of Staff, Brigadier General Richard K. Sutherland. …At 3.40 a.m., Brigadier Leonard T. Gerow, Chief of the Army’s War Plans Division, telephoned MacArthur from Washington to confirm that Pearl Harbor had been attacked by the Japanese. He told MacArthur that he “wouldn’t be surprised if you get an attack there in the near future”. [1]
*It is at this point, that MacArthur’s headquarters at Manila takes on the characteristics of a chapter from Alice in Wonderland. History records that the Japanese launched devastating attacks on MacArthur’s airbases at about 12.20 p.m. on 8 December 1941. Instead of acting decisively to prepare for a likely Japanese attack on the Philippines, MacArthur took no significant action between 3.00 a.m. and 12.20 p.m. to bring his command to a proper state of readiness to resist an attack and to preserve his air force. Whether MacArthur’s paralysis during these critical nine hours was due to indecision or the restraining influence of President Quezon, or perhaps a combination of both, has never been satisfactorily explained by historians. From 5.00 a.m. on the morning of 8 December 1941, Major General Brereton tried to speak to MacArthur about a Far East Air Force response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but he was repeatedly denied access to MacArthur by Brigadier General Sutherland…As a direct result of MacArthur’s inexcusable failure to bring his command to a proper state of readiness to resist a likely Japanese attack, most of Brereton’s aircraft were sitting on their airstrips when Japanese bombers and fighters arrived overhead at about 12.20 p.m. on 8 December and took them by surprise.
Reflecting the slackness of MacArthur’s command structure, radar and other warnings of the approach of unidentified aircraft formations had not been passed on to flight commanders at American airbases. At the Clark Field airbase, located about 50 miles (80 km) north of Manila, the American bombers and fighters were caught on the ground and most were destroyed.
Blast what out? All Roosevelt had to do is tell Mac- “Hey, the Japs might attack soon- act surprised”. Only a couple people had to be in on it. again "Whether MacArthur’s paralysis during these critical nine hours was due to indecision or the restraining influence of President Quezon, or perhaps a combination of both, has never been satisfactorily explained by historians." But my Dad was actually there. In the Philippines, and later with Mac in the Pacific.
Sure, we didnt know where or when. But a fleet was out and the best guess was the Philippines, no one thought Pearl.