Maybe. They could get away with not attacking the U.S., but they couldn’t avoid Great Britain and that might draw the U.S. in. Or American might respond to the ongoing invasions which would be on worse terms. The plan wasn’t just “beat up the U.S. until they backed down” - Japan wanted us to continue trading afterward. In any event, Japan couldn’t produce war material anything in the quantities needed, but the most critical supply they lacked was oil.
I feel it could have worked.
Japan could have occupied the European colonies in Southeast Asia while those countries were involved in a war against Germany. That would have given them secure access to the raw materials they needed.
The United States would almost certainly have ended up in the war with Germany. And we wouldn’t have been looking to start a second war against Japan while fighting against Germany. So Japan would have had a few years to secure its position in Asia without being stuck in a major war.
There would have been issues in 1945 (or whenever Germany was defeated). The European powers would have been looking to get their colonies back. But the United States probably wouldn’t have wanted to get directly involved in a war whose cause was turning colonies over from one empire to another. We probably would have been on the side of Britain, France, and the Netherlands diplomatically but we wouldn’t have fought alongside them.
I can’t offer a strong prediction on what would happen in a war between a stronger Japan fighting in Asia against an weakened postwar European coalition. It probably would have blended in to the general anti-imperialist wars that started after WWII. Japan might have even ended up working with the European powers as a fellow imperialist power.
DrDeth, I’m sure you’ll forgive us if we accept all historical evidence over your dad’s opinion.
It’s also completely illogical even on its face. The Phillippines would have been a crucial base to control a huge Pacific region, but which could not easily be retaken. If they held out, the U.S. would have been in a far superior position from the get-go. Though more vulnerable, they also would have been an existential threat to Japanese sea lanes. And of course, as the Philippines were a territory that was in the process of being made independent, the American public would not necessarily be willing to go to war over it.
On the other hand, the Japanese couldn’t take or hold Hawaii for even a minute, but an attack there was a direct strike on integral American soil. Had Roosevelt known of the attacks in advance, he would have. Also, you know these communications are documented, right? The government would have had to blast this out in such a manner that a number of American officers would have known about it.
The U.S. government did have some inkling that the Japanese might attack, but radically underestimated the size and scale of the assault. (There was quite a bit of laziness and sloppy planning in the armed services at the time.) Additionally, the Japanese originally intended to deliver their declaration of war immediately before the attack, ensuring it was “honourable” but also giving no chance to respond. This didn’t quite happen and the communication arrived late, making it doubly insulting.
That is the way it went; Churchill wanted the British Empire intact, and the USA wanted those countries to be free and independent.
Interesting to speculate what might have happened if Wallace had stayed VP and became President in 1945. Could we possibly have ended up in an alliance with the Soviet Union against the imperialist powers?
I don’t know anything about Wallace, despite my interest in FDR. I do believe the Russians were regarded as hoodlums until they were attacked by Germany. They surely acted like that regarding Poland and eastern europe.
What historical evidence?
Fact- Intelligence knew a Japanese attack somewhere was soon. A big fleet was out. But yes, we didnt know where or on whom. Maybe even a maneuver, but not likely.
Fact- everyone thought it would be the Phillipines.
Fact- despite that, and despite the fact the Mac had NINE hours warning, he was still caught with his pants down “by surprise”. Explain that.
https://www.pacificwar.org.au/Philippines/Japanattacks.html
MacArthur’s inaction and failure to follow war orders causes the loss of American air power in the Philippines
Within minutes of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which occurred at about 2.30 a.m. on 8 December 1941 (Manila time), the news was received at the headquarters of the United States Asiatic Fleet in the Philippines. Admiral Hart was informed at about 3.00 a.m. The news was not passed on to the army. Shortly after 3.00 a.m. on that morning, General MacArthur was informed of the Japanese attack by his Chief of Staff, Brigadier General Richard K. Sutherland. …At 3.40 a.m., Brigadier Leonard T. Gerow, Chief of the Army’s War Plans Division, telephoned MacArthur from Washington to confirm that Pearl Harbor had been attacked by the Japanese. He told MacArthur that he “wouldn’t be surprised if you get an attack there in the near future”. [1]
*It is at this point, that MacArthur’s headquarters at Manila takes on the characteristics of a chapter from Alice in Wonderland. History records that the Japanese launched devastating attacks on MacArthur’s airbases at about 12.20 p.m. on 8 December 1941. Instead of acting decisively to prepare for a likely Japanese attack on the Philippines, MacArthur took no significant action between 3.00 a.m. and 12.20 p.m. to bring his command to a proper state of readiness to resist an attack and to preserve his air force. Whether MacArthur’s paralysis during these critical nine hours was due to indecision or the restraining influence of President Quezon, or perhaps a combination of both, has never been satisfactorily explained by historians. From 5.00 a.m. on the morning of 8 December 1941, Major General Brereton tried to speak to MacArthur about a Far East Air Force response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, but he was repeatedly denied access to MacArthur by Brigadier General Sutherland…As a direct result of MacArthur’s inexcusable failure to bring his command to a proper state of readiness to resist a likely Japanese attack, most of Brereton’s aircraft were sitting on their airstrips when Japanese bombers and fighters arrived overhead at about 12.20 p.m. on 8 December and took them by surprise.
Reflecting the slackness of MacArthur’s command structure, radar and other warnings of the approach of unidentified aircraft formations had not been passed on to flight commanders at American airbases. At the Clark Field airbase, located about 50 miles (80 km) north of Manila, the American bombers and fighters were caught on the ground and most were destroyed.
Blast what out? All Roosevelt had to do is tell Mac- “Hey, the Japs might attack soon- act surprised”. Only a couple people had to be in on it. again "Whether MacArthur’s paralysis during these critical nine hours was due to indecision or the restraining influence of President Quezon, or perhaps a combination of both, has never been satisfactorily explained by historians." But my Dad was actually there. In the Philippines, and later with Mac in the Pacific.
Sure, we didnt know where or when. But a fleet was out and the best guess was the Philippines, no one thought Pearl.
Easy. MacArthur had a breakdown. This was described by people in his headquarters at the time. He just went into his office and didn’t give any orders for a couple of days. (The same thing happened with Stalin when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union.)
The theory that MacArthur did this because he had been ordered to by Roosevelt is nonsense. As a military professional, MacArthur would never have agreed to let his forces be sacrificed. And as Douglas MacArthur, he never would have agreed to let his personal reputation be sacrificed.
The story that MacArthur’s failure after Pearl Harbor was due to Roosevelt’s secret order reflects that second fact. It sounds like something MacArthur and his staff would have come up with to protect MacArthur’s image.
It has been difficult for historians to establish the reason for MacArthur’s fatal inaction during the crucial nine hours that elapsed in Manila following news of the Pearl Harbor attack. There was no American government inquiry into MacArthur’s behaviour of the kind that addressed alleged failures of command at Pearl Harbor. When informally questioned after the war, the chief actors in the Philippines disaster appeared to be concerned to protect their own reputations by shifting blame to others.
And all I said was “act” surprised. Maybe there was politics, maybe some breakdown. But still, no one has ever come up with a good explanation.
Now, true, riffing on what you said Drawing on the recollections of those who observed MacArthur at his headquarters during the critical nine hours between news of Pearl Harbor reaching Manila and the commencement of the Japanese air assault on the Philippines, his biographer William Manchester describes MacArthur’s mental condition at this time as verging on “catatonic”. The commander of America’s Army and Air Force in the Philippines was observed to be “grey, ill and exhausted.” Manchester was not a hostile biographer. He suggests that MacArthur’s decision-making faculties may have become paralysed in the hours immediately following Pearl Harbor owing to “overload” caused by conflicting pressures. See William Manchester, “American Caesar”, at pp. 230-231.
Note “conflicting pressures.” “Act surprised- but be ready” “They hit Pearl not Phillipines” “Now they are on their way here”.
Sure, My dad wasnt right there with Mac during those nine hours. But the aircrew on the B17s that took Mac the rest of the way were close buddies of my Dad. And for some strange reason, even tho my dad was “lucky” enuf to get Malaria and be flown out before the islands collapsed*, he was pulled back to Macs command unit “by personal request”- name withheld.
Alright, maybe a little bit of conspiracy theory but no one knows the actual facts, no board of inquiry was ever held- odd that. And my dad is in good company, many have similar theories.
As “crazy theories go” this one at least gets into “barely plausible.”.
- otherwise Bataan death march, so i guess malaria is better than that.
Quite frankly, the only way this theory could be less plausible would be if it included some aliens.
Sure. Many experts on WW2 have asked why Mac blew it and other experts have written exhaustive books on what the Americans knew before Pearl- but you know more than they do, of course. And- i dont suppose you even met Doug, did you? Let alone served under him for five years?
No, I’m the guy who’s agreeing with the experts. You’re the guy who’s claiming he knows more than they do.
We’ve drifted from the original topic some, so forgive me for some more drift…as has been mentioned, in 1940 and 1941 the US was drifting into a war with Germany, with USN units escorting convoys and engaging U-Boats. The shadow war, it has been called. After Pearl Harbor, Germany declared war on the US, even though they were not bound to by treaty with the Japanese.
I’ve often wondered what would have happened if Hitler had not made that decision. All US military assets would have gone to the Pacific, and I doubt if public opinion would have supported any action against Germany. **
It would have been a big problem for Roosevelt. He knew that the real threat was Germany and the United States should adopt a “Europe first” strategy. But he would have had to spend a lot of political capital convincing Congress to vote for a declaration of war against Germany and the American people to support it after the Pearl Harbor attack.
Hitler did Roosevelt a huge favor by taking the problem off his hands and declaring war on the United States.
Since we’ve meandered from Midway to the Philippines, IMO it’s about a 95% probability that Japan would have invaded eventually, even if they’d restricted their initial attacks to the colonial possessions:
- One of their primary goals — especially from the IJN’s viewpoint — was to secure a supply of oil from the Dutch East Indies. Having an unfriendly presence in the middle of the route between the DEI and Japan proper would be difficult to tolerate.
- The presence of a non-vassal state in the middle of the “Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere” would be unacceptable.
- Pre-war strategic planning, for both the IJN and USN, placed the Mahan-esque “decisive battle” in the vicinity of the Philippines. Destroying the Asiatic Fleet as part of an invasion would not only eliminate a threat to the IJN’s rear, it would draw out the Pacific Fleet to its inevitable destruction.
You are of the impression nine hours is a long time?
It makes zero sense - zero - for the American defenses to deliberately allow themselves to be attacked. You cannot construct any rational explanation for that.
Emotional breakdowns among command officers during WWII were apparently common. Halsey apparently froze for an hour after getting what he thought was a sarcastic radio message from Nimitz and only came out of it after his chief of staff shook him.
I can’t imagine how crushing the burden must have been on these men. They had to make decisions that would send thousands of the men they were responsible for to their deaths and had to decide if the mission was worth the cost. And even worse, they had to make decisions that might cause their country to lose the war and change the course of history.
To bring it back to the thread topic, I’ve read that Yamamoto never really recovered from Midway. His reputation with the high command was diminished by the defeat. But it was also a personal blow to him and he became psychologically withdrawn.
Agreed. I don’t mean to be dismissive of the stress of the job, or to be overly critical of emotional responses to that stress. My point is (or should have been) these things happened, and thus are a potential explanation of otherwise mysterious behavior.
He threw his hat onto the deck and jumped up and down on it until Robert Carney his COS pointed out that he shouldn’t be doing that.