The AP is reporting that North Korea now has the capability to his the US mainland as far east as the Central Time Zone. Just curious, what are your opinions as to:
I think Los Angeles, due to its high Korean population and its role in promulgating Western Pop Culture, but only about 2 out of 10 with the geopolitical status quo, so no need to panic quite yet.
They wouldn’t attempt to attack any city, unless it was a *Gotterdammerung *(my auto-correct rolled over and died trying to parse that) situation or it was an accident. If an accident, then who knows where or when? Perhaps a brief initial strike somewhere non-inhabited in South Korea, to prove to the U.S. et al that they were serious (well, seriously starving), and to make with the aid already, or things would get worse?
If a Gotterdammerung, then I fully believe that psychopath would give the orders for as many people as possible to join him in Hell. How many would that be depends on how many missiles he has (I’m surprised he did another test w/o having a non-interdictable deterrent already in place. I’m also surprised we haven’t seen a multi-stage weapon’s test yet.), divided by how many of his soldiers would actually push the button, and divided by how many of the damned things are likely to work.
Say 50 road-mobile storable-liquid-fueled ICBMs. Say 2/3 try to launch, and say 1/2 of those work. That’s 16 warheads (no sign they know how to MIRV yet), each about 20 kT, maybe less, maybe as much as 50kT. South Korea can get thumped by other non-ICBM means, so pick on Japan, the U.S., and hell, that crazy bastard may try China and Russia too. After all, it’s their fault too for not giving him enough aid, right?
Anyway, generate a countervalue (he’s only got a few weapons; he’s not wasting them on US military sites) list for 16 atomic weapons striking at least the first two countries, and then whoever else grabs your fancy. Shrink it by however many you think Aegis Ashore, THAAD, Fort Greeley, etc… can attrit.
Likelihood? What’s the likelihood that Un thinks his society will fall and try to kill him by 2020? There’s always the chance of a “Whoops!” when sabre-rattling though.
I think the chance is small, but I also think then that in order for that to happen, NK will be among the leaders of foreign aid from the U.S. Is it worth what we give Israel and Egypt each year (or Pakistan or whoever else is the lucky winner at the Department of State Fair) to keep NK afloat, Un calm, and the missiles stilled?
Consider further that an atomic weapon detonating in a US city will be the largest catastrophe by at least an order of magnitude in this country’s history. So, the Galveston Storm of 1900? 10x the casualty toll from that. What would the economic costs be? 10x 9/11? 100? Danegeld doesn’t seem so bad, now, does it?
Facebook says that one was aimed towards Japan was fired, the second this month? Even if it’s not the US, the economic effect alone would be disastrous.
The USA has a missile defense system. Odds are North Korea would hit nothing with a single missile
1 ) To answer your question, they would hit what they thought was easiest. Probably somewhere in Hawaii or Alaska.
2 ) North Korea has an insane leader who has no real idea of how technology inferior his nation is in the military. This is problematic, but I tend to doubt he fires an ICBM missile at the USA. I’ll say maybe a probability of a 2 on a 1-10 scale which means he needs to be watched at all times.
I get pissed, every time I hear the panic of NK’s ability to hit the “Continental U.S.” No mention of the easier targets, Alaska and Hawaii. Are they less a part of the U.S.?
Even crazy Kim understands that firing one nuclear missile would mean the annihilation of N. Korea.
I could easily see us launching ten nuclear tipped ICBM’s in retaliation. That’s assuming his missile hit an unpopulated area in Alaska. We might send THIRTY ICBM’s if that crazy mf hit one of our cities.
There would be nothing left of N Korea but a smoking hole.
Never underestimate what an insane man with a weapon is capable of. They don’t think beyond the first boom.
To be fair would the US really get involved in a major war over an attack on Hawaii of all places? :rolleyes:
nm
I hope this is a whoosh.
The day of reckoning will come without warning to the decadent Western pigs. Do not question the Supreme Leader’s resolve, instead question how swiftly the corpulent Americans will throw themselves at his divinely pedicured feet to save themselves.
What’s worse than an egotistical psychopath with a nuclear weapon?
Two egotistical psychopaths with nuclear weapons threatening each other.
Admit it; you knew that was coming, didn’t you?
Maybe I should clarify the OP. The syntax error may have confused people. “Which city would they attempt to hit” is not the same as “which city would they hit.” I’m asking what targets might they aim for, and the probability of launching an attack.
I’m well aware of the fact that we have both defense and retaliation systems in place, and I’m not asking about the likelihood of a hit. I’m just asking about where they might be aiming, and how likely they are to begin an attack, not their probabilty of success or the end-game scenario. Feel free to discuss that if it’s of interest, but I was more curious about the strategic planning from a North Korean perspective, insofar as anyone can figure it out.
They’ll target Yellowstone national park in hopes of setting off the super volcano. It is their only win scenario.
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