Damn it! All that and I didn’t mention the point. The first two attempts, using the court and the last-minute issue in the regular session, defied Texas traditions by bypassing the hearings where the public gives their input. In the first special session they actually DID hold some public hearings to get feedback from the public. They just ignored it. 89% of the people who showed up at the hearings around the state were against redistricting. Dewhurst has hand-waved these people as “[Democratic] party activists”.
Here’s the rub. The new district map would, in theory, swing the Texas Federal House of Representatives from the current 17-D 15-R makeup to something between a 18-R 14-D and 22-R 10-D split. Taking the middle road would be a 20-R 12-D split. Something like this is what the Republicans are aiming for. Let’s be naieve for a second and assign only the purest of motives to them. Let’s say they truly believe this is the split which would properly represent the will of the people of Texas. So they believe the state is populated by approximately two Republicans for every 1 Democrat. Keep that 2:1 ratio in mind.
2 Republicans per 1 Democrat.
Statewide public hearings on redistricting were held. 2,620 people turned out at the various places to testify as to their opinions on the issue. 2,325 were against. 217 were for. 78 held other opinions. Now the 2,325 were dismissed as Democratic activists. Let’s make another assumption. Let’s say 3% of people care enough about political issues to become “activists”. So 3% of Republicans are Republican “activists” and 3% of Democrats are Democratic “activists”.
A estimate for the Texas population is 20,851,820. Divide that by 3 real quick and you get 6,950,606 That’s the number of Democrats. Double it and you get the number of Republicans 13,901,213. Now let’s apply our 3% rule. Multiply each by .03 to get the number of “activists” of each party. 417,036 Republican “activists” in the state. 208,518 Democratic “activists”.
So, now what percentage of each party’s “activists” turned out at these hearings? And make no mistake, the Republicans were making drives to get their people to turn out as well. 2,325 people who testified in the statewide hearings were against redistricting. These were the alleged Democratic activists. Out of a potential 208,518. 2,325/208,518 = 1.1% of the Democratic activists turned out. Now, the Republicans had 217 people turn out in favor of redistricting. 217/417,036 = 0.05%
So the question, to my mind, is that if Texas is such a staunchly Republican state, whey can’t they get more than 0.05% of their “activists” to turn out to support them? Remember, that 0.05% was based on 3% of the alleged Republican population of Texas. So that means .03 * .0005 = 0.00156% of alleged Republicans who care enough about redistricting to say something about it.
Yep, our faithful representatives, carrying out the will of the people, that’s all this is.
Enjoy,
Steven