Not much change from yesterday, but I have a vote now.
I am against dossier reveal. I feel steamrolled about the reveal process as people are revealing before a consensus can be reached about whether revealing is a good idea or not. Too many people are sitting back and not stating their opinion about dossiers. If the consensus is to reveal, then I will reveal mine, but the way we jumped to “Hey X, it’s your turn to reveal now” bothers me.
I’m skeptical that Hockey Monkey and Diomedes have discovered a pattern. I question whether it is possible to discover a pattern with only 3 or 4 dossiers. I would think that in order to discover a pattern, they would also need to know the alignments of the dossiers presented. I’m sure its possible they think they see something, but I don’t see how a true pattern could be revealed with so little data. Also, I don’t see mtgman designing a dossier system that could be broken so easily and quickly.
from yesterday:
I’d like zuma to explain how he knows “dio is town.”
vote zuma
A pro-town zuma should not know dio’s alignment.
I was surprised that he didn’t respond to my previous query (not a big deal, but the delay is there)
zuma’s randomization method, while brilliant, also has the effect of passive-aggressively prodding people into revealing dossiers before we discuss the issue.
zuma did not follow his own randomization order which further serves to prod people into revealing dossiers and violates zuma’s stated purpose for the randomized order, namely not letting scum manipulate the reveal order. zuma’s actions do not line up with his statements.
Hal Briston:
How do you interpret zuma’s statement regarding dio’s alignment?
Hawkeyeop:
What is your opinion of dossier reveals? Why do you feel that way?
on preview: brewha stole my thunder! Although it’s for very different reasons.
I’m getting frustrated by this sort of thing, frankly. “I see a pattern, and it implicates so-and-so, but I won’t say anymore about it, because it might help the scum.”
Well, look. If you see a pattern and it implicates someone strongly enough to convict them, then you really should out with it right now. I really doubt that NAF and mtgman designed a system that, analyzed de novo and with no alignment information, is going to give away all of the scum. If we can catch one - just one - with this info, we should.
But if you’re not going to explain yourself, don’t say anything at all. brewha, if you’ve actually detected a pattern and are right about zuma, then by telling us that you see something but not what you see you’re giving the scum a head start on devising their own lies.
This whole “I’ve made a deduction but I’m not going to tell you about it” is worse than unhelpful - it’s actively detrimental.
sachertorte, in the interest of discussion: why are you opposed to dossier reveal? I am of the opinion that a full reveal is most likely to be neutral or very, very marginally pro-town, as I can see no way given what we have been told and what we know already that it could benefit the scum. What downside do you see?
Well… a lot has happened since last I was sober.
First things, first: unvote: Rysto
Third things second, I agree with storyteller that zuma’s assertion that I must be a townie is somewhat curious: but it makes a lot of sense if you agree with me that information is good (or is, at least, not bad) for the town. I also -really- don’t like his early reveal: the whole point of the randomization was in order to help ‘catch out’ scum who came up early in the order.
That deserves a FOS, perhaps, but I’ll toss my vote in faithfool’s firetion, if that’s what she wants.
vote: faithfool
I know it sucks, but I can’t say what the pattern is. If I explain it, the scum (if they haven’t figured it out already) can easily make up a dossier to perfectly match that of any vanilla townie.
If that is what we want to do, I could explain what I know. We could, perhaps, lynch one scum based on it, but then the dossier’s would be completely useless.
If everyone were to post their complete dossier, I would be happy to say what I know. Otherwise, I’m keeping my trap shut.
This would make much more sense if you saw the pattern I do.
I wasn’t the one who pointed that out, although I certainly do agree that it is odd. I don’t understand your explanation of it here, thought.
Why? Do you think she is scum? If so, why?
Except that - for the moment assuming that you are both: (1) town; and (2) correct, which are assumptions I’m making only for the purposes of argument, since I’m not sure about either - the scum already know whether you are correct, and if you are, they have almost surely identified the “pattern,” because they have access
Is it your belief that analysis of the dossier system will, in and of itself and without any analysis of in-thread behavior, identify more than one scum? Is it your belief that the dossier system will or could identify all the scum?
Then why did you open your trap in the first place? Why say anything at all, directing suspicion in zuma’s direction, if you weren’t prepared to follow-up?
Sorry.
I’m trying to get conversation going. I was just throwing out questions. I saw your an earlier post of yours which was unsure of an opinion at the time (Post 320 ).
I accept that some people want to reveal unless proven that revealing is bad; just understand that I oppose revealing unless it can be proven to be beneficial.
My interpretation of the Dossier system is that the public information that we were given at the beginning of the game is pro-town. We have a 1/6 chance of the killer’s public item being revealed. However, we also have a non-zero chance of the killer’s private data matching a town’s public data. What this means to me, is that when the death post item matches a public piece of data, we have someone whose likelihood of being scum has gone up. It doesn’t mean that person is scum, but the the probability is higher.
To be honest, I formed this opinion with bias from my own dossier. However, Santo Rugger’s dossier brings greater doubt to the probabilities in my mind. Santo Rugger’s dossier had two private items that matched public characteristics. If scum dossiers are limited to a max of 2 private items matching town public characteristics, then the revelation the killer’s item matching a public characteristic ups the probability of the holder of that characteristic to 33% or more. From there we analyze behavior to determine scumminess.
I feel that revealing private data will simply muddy the water.
I do not feel that dossier analysis will out scum. I do not know this, but I assume it because it would be poor game design. I think it is more probable that whatever patterns we discern are either false or intentionally misleading.
Simply put: I trust the public data. I do not trust the private data.
It’s okay. I was just starting to think I was typing in invisible ink. Though I suppose there are worse things to happen in a Mafia game then being ignored.
Everyone has access to the pattern. I don’t want to be more specific, because if one scum figures it out, the will all know it tonight.
I believe it could point to scummy behavior in more than one person. I do believe that there is no way that it would difinitevly point out all scum.
I believe zuma is lying. I’m giving him a chance to explain him(her??)self. I’m perfectly prepared to follow-up by explaining what I see, but I think it would be very helpful to the mafia if I were to do that before all dossiers are revealed.
Okay, just caught up. Sorry, I have guests staying with me 'til tomorrow. After that I can completely devote my life to this game.
I as well was reminded of the Conspiracy game where sacher sat on the information he had at the beginning. It worked for that game (for the Town, anyway) but in a game like this with no power roles, I really don’t see how sitting on information is going to help any of us. The scum will most likely have already shared their dossiers, which means they are already working with more information than we have at hand. I don’t see how we’re supposed to make use of the dossiers unless they are revealed. Revealing the infomation in a trickle is something I really don’t see the point of - if we’re going to reveal our information, we might as well do it all at once and figure it out from there. Scum will probably lie about their dossiers, but at least we’ll have something to work with. If there is no dossier reveal scum won’t have to lie about much - which would make them harder to catch.
I’m having trouble seeing how dossier reveals are going to help scum (although I fully acknowledge that this doesn’t mean it won’t; it just doesn’t seem obvious to me). Without any power roles in the game, what are the dossiers going to reveal that the scum don’t already know? Scum know who they are and who the townies are. We don’t know crap at this point.
I guess the reveal order is being disregarded, so here’s my dossier.
(Public) I own an authentic 1920s lady’s flapper outfit.
I worked as a professional audio engineer for three years.
I wear a size 7 shoe.
I can say ‘hello’ and ‘thank you’ in nine languages.
My great-great-grandfather was a duke in Sicily.
I watched as over 30 people jumped out of an airborne aircraft.
To everyone else, faithfool is clean. Or at least she’s not lying about her dossier. I’m going back to sipping Seagrams and listening to Stryper while watching Brad Pitt/Morgan Freeman movies.
Same way as just about everyone else – with a resounding “Bwuh?”
I think it is entirely possible that the determination of how revelation or secrecy of dossiers benefited or hindered town or scum won’t be decided until the post-game discussion. I don’t think it is “provable” one way or the other.
I see a benefit to the town by revealing our dossiers. I see a benefit to the mafia for them to keep it hidden until tonight. I’m pushing for mass reveal.
Here’s mine, since I don’t see any order being followed either.
(Public) I am scared of moths.
I can say ‘hello’ and ‘thank you’ in nine languages.
I have performed an exorcism.
I was a trombone soloist in college.
I started a forest fire by playing with matches.
I’ve bowled two perfect 300 games
I think anyone who is hiding their dossiers may have more to hide!
I don’t think it would be bad to reveal in death scenes, but I don’t see an advantage to it either. I feel this way because we will know the alignment of the dossier holder. In other words, this information becomes trusted information; unlike the lack of trust I have when looking at dossiers posted by unknowns.
But I admit I haven’t thought this through very thoroughly.
