What do I think about dossier reveals?
Revealing the dossier publically does allow fo pattern analysis, provided that we can rely on the players to report accurately. With a full reveal, I suspect that we could do pattern analysis to spot anomalies and deduce whether someone has lied about their dossier.
Against this, the more people that have revealed their dossier, the better untruth a Silent Pig can construct. It’s quite possible that a late-revealing SP can construct a dossier that cannot be told from a real dossier even with all the dossiers fully revealed. There is about a 1 in 3 chance that all of the last three players to reveal are Good Guys (assuming we use a random selection method). That means it’s better than even odds that at least one of those players (whoever they are) is a Silent Pig, who will have loads of information to construct their dossier with.
Contrary to popular wisdom, Good Guys do have a reason to try and be among the last to reveal. If the Silent Pigs reveal first, they are more likely to make something up which is inconsistent with the Good Guy’s dossiers.
The argument that the reveal would prevent important information being taken to the grave by good guys killed unexpectedly is not something I give weight to, because the death post enables the player to reveal it anyway. Consequently it doesn’t sway me either way.
The problem I see with reveals is that if the Silent Pigs know all the details of every dossier (as they would if we implement full reveals) then we are handing them tools to deceive us. Unless a good guy lies about their dossier (and why they would do that escapes me) then the Silent Pigs can pick the killer with the best chance of revealing no unique facts to be the killer each Night by selecting the one that has most matches to the remaining Townies.
I believe that the killer must be selectable because otherwise the mechanism whereby the dead person is provided a fact about his killer from that person’s dossier doesn’t work unless the killer is a specific individual. It could be random selection by the Mods, of course, which would undermine that idea.
My conclusion? I’m still not 100% convinced that full dossier reveals are the right way to go. I’m strongly leaning that way, however.
Before I do so, though, I’d like to ask Hal Briston a question.
Hal, how many of the five private facts in my dossier are also public facts about other players? You don’t have to answer, but if you don’t want to please say that.