Eh, find a slow time and post them once every couple hours or so. It’ll keep the thread bumped if nothing else.
Enjoy,
Steven
11am Pacific, 1pm central.
OK, six hours before that is 5AM Pacific, 7AM Central, and 8AM my time. So, under my proposed plan, we’d have until tomorrow morning to reach a consensus, and then we all would swing to the object of that consensus. Which seems unlikely to be useful toDay, as that’s not a lot of time and literally no one has agreed to this proposition, but might work on future Days if there is agreement that it’s a workable plan.
I will go along with your plan, if you go along with mine. The problem I see with your plan, Story is that by the looks of it, I’ll have the most votes at 7AM tomorrow. If I do get chucked off a cliff tonight, what’s going to happen when it turns out that I am town?
Will it be a bunch of, ‘well that sucks, sorry brewha. Now what’? Or, when it becomes obvious that I am indeed town, can we go after those who voted for me?
It seems no one has really given my theory any thought. But, the fact of the matter is that I was on the edge of the cliff and no scum took the opportunity to boot me off. When it becomes clear that I am town, the only logical explanation of why I survived is that all the scum were already voting for me. I wish someone would poke holes in this theory. I’d like to hear of a plausible explanation of why I wasn’t killed yesterday, under the assumption that I am town.
If we can accept that the rest of the scum are among the six that voted for me, I’ll happily play martyr. We are accomplishing nothing while focusing on me. At least if I’m gone, the remaining town can focus on someone else.
The problem with that idea is that it would encourage a lot of unaccountable votes. Aren’t you the one usually leading the charge against people voting for a lynch with no reason other than “Somebody’s gotta die?”
Eh, I don’t find that explanation convincing. And I keep bring it up because some players seem to think you’re confirmed. I don’t want us locked in some sort of groupthink that treats potential scum as confirmed.
I thought about responding, but you’re theories seemed like the flailing of someone trying to avoid being lynched. That is, throwing more suspicion on yourself than me. You even admit it is an “almost certainly flawed theory”.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Let me analyze yesterDay’s vote. The final count:
7 - brewha (sach, HockeyMonkey, Hawkeyeop, Freudian Slit, Rysto, Hal Briston, Pleo)
2 - Diomedes (faithfool, kat)
2 - faithfool (zuma, Dio)
1 - Hawkeyeop (brewha)
No Vote - story, Hazel
There’s sets of voters: for brewha’s lynch [Pros](sach, HockeyMonkey, Hawkeyeop, Freudian Slit, Rysto, Hal Briston, Pleo) , against his lynch [Cons] (faith, Kat, zuma, Dio) and non-voters [Abs] (story, Hazel). I’m leaving brewha himself out of this, since he’s not going to vote for himself no matter what his alignment.
Let’s consider that brewha is Town. Why wasn’t he lynched?
- The Scum all voted for him, but enough Town chose wisely. Pros are 4/7 Scum, Cons 0/4, Abs 0/2. Likelihood = 10%
- The Scum mostly voted for him, but missed the hammer deadline. Pros are 3/7 Scum, Cons 0/4, Abs 1/2. Likelihood = 20%
- The Scum mostly voted for him, but one decided a no lynch is tactically better than a mislynch. Pros are 3/7 Scum, Cons 1/4, Abs 0/2. Likelihood = 20%
- Some Scum voted for him, but some didn’t. Pros are 2/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 2/6. Likelihood = 40%
- The Town is driving the wrong way. Pros are 1/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 3/6. Likelihood = 10%
Weighted means: Pros are 2.5 Scum, Cons 1, Abs 0.5.
Let’s consider that he’s Scum. Why wasn’t he lynched?
6. No Scum voted for him, and enough Town chose poorly. Pros are 0/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 3/6. Likelihood = 10%
7. Scum split vote for/against, but one conveniently forgot to vote. Pros and Cons are 2/11 Scum, Abs 1/2. Likelihood = 30%
8. Scum split votes for/against. Pros are 1.5/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 1.5/6. Likelihood = 50%
9. Scum try to throw brewha under the bus while Town is hopelessly lost. Pros are 3/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 0/6. Likelihood = 10%
Weighted means: Pros are 1.5 Scum, Cons 1, Abs 0.5.
And, the net result: not that much information, Scum are probably divided proportionately among all groups, no matter what brewha’s alignment. It doesn’t look like we’ll gain much by lynching brewha.
I think we should focus on someone else for now. Lynching brewha toDay won’t gain us any info we don’t already have from yesterDay’s vote count. No matter what his alignment is, when we lynch him, the votes are likely to be a repeat of that vote count. Nothing new.
My suggestion: let’s put him on hold for one Day. If you think he’s Scum (and I think he’s more likely than not), save your vote for Tomorrow and vote for your second-place toDay.
Currently I think we’ll get more information from how people vote for others.
I like story’s idea to guarantee a lynch.
[bolding mine]
Just to make sure no one misconstrues my voting this time (no fault of yours Pleo, I’m sure, this is a LOT to digest, but I’m afraid of being accused of something again if I don’t point this out), I actually changed my vote to brewha.
Pleonast, you’re going to have to show your work. You say:
10% of what? How are you getting that number?
I just don’t buy your math. Either the scum decided that they would or would not vote together. That looks alot like 50/50 odds to me.
If there are 4 scum, 3 town had voted for me. I’m not sure what order it happened, but I’d guess that once two or three town voted against me, the scum all jumped on board and hoped a 4th and 5th townie would cast their vote and lynch me.
Like Hockey Monkey said, there’s not much strategic advantage to letting me live. The only scenario that makes sense that I’m alive is that all the scum had voted for me. Unless the scum just missed a deadline or weren’t paying attention. It which case, they aren’t very good at this and we should be doing much better than we are.
As for this:
I couldn’t be more opposed. Either kill me today or call me town and focus on someone else. This is two days in a row that too much time has been analyzing me to no positive outcome. So you are suggesting we do that again tomorrow? That would be the most pro scum thing we could do.
If the majority opinion is that analyzing me again tomorrow or the next day is a good idea - just chuck me off the cliff now - because there is no way we can win if we keep wasting time like this.
I need to say this beforehand - I have to teach class from 8am to 2pm tomorrow, and because I don’t have a log-in ID for the Internet yet at my new school I won’t be able to check back in until I get home, which will be about 3pm. (I leave for work at 6am.) So I won’t be able to swing my vote. I think storyteller’s idea is a good one, for what it’s worth, but real life makes it impossible for me to participate. My mornings are rushed as it is. Sorry.
I disagree with Pleonast’s point - that anything we could learn from brewha’s lynch we could probably learn from the votes of yesterDay - because votes won’t really help until we know the alignment of the person being lynched. And dragging this brewha thing out is the last thing we need right now. If he’s town, we’re wasting our time; if he’s scum, we’re playing right into his hands. (As brewha himself has noted, interestingly enough.)
I’m almost tempted to vote for him just so we won’t drag this out another Day, but I’m still not convinced he’s scum. If he IS scum he’s playing a rather ballsy game by saying we either need to lynch him toDay or move on to someone else.
Are you convinced that anyone is scum? You don’t have to be convinced to make your vote. Not even reasonably sure. Vote for who you think is scummiest. Surely there is someone. If you aren’t going to be online in the morning, make your vote now. Make sure you have some say in the process. Otherwise you’re useless. I don’t mean that personally of course, but in the context of the game if you aren’t contributing you are just useless.
Um … I already voted last night.
Sorry, I saw the “almost tempted to vote for him” part and got a little revved up. :o So I’ll direct that entire sentiment to anyone who hasn’t voted yet. 
No, it wouldn’t. For purposes of accountability, the Day would simply end six hours earlier. We’d look at the votes at the “advance deadline” as the “final votes;” if you voted for Player X at the advance deadline, then changed your vote to Player Y to participate in this plan, you’d be evaluated as if you actually voted for Player X. If you had no vote in place at the advance deadline, then voted for Player Y to be part of the consensus vote, you’d be evaluated as if you didn’t vote at all.
Hopefully that makes sense; I can’t think of a clearer way to explain it.
This is probably the last time I’ll be here before the lynch. I need to spend time in Story’s game the next couple days (Playing 2 games at once is a terrible idea for me, I’ll never do it again).
I agree with a lot of what story laid out with a few reservations. His point about the early-game “storylines” almost always being town is a good one.
As such,
unvote: faithfool
vote: freudian slit
No, it makes perfect sense to me. I just don’t believe that you won’t try to turn this around at some later point.
That being said, I -still- don’t like the brewha vote. So I’ll toss my hat towards my favorite ex-Necromancer
vote: Freudian Slit
While I have suspicions of storyteller, the case against Freudian Slit is a good one, and a better one than what I’ve found for brewha so far.
unvote brewha
vote Freudian Slit
I have a meeting this morning. I should be back before the end of the Day, but I can’t guarantee it.
So Freudian and Brewha are nodded at five now? Eh. I prefer voting for Brewha, but will switch over if needed for a lynch. (I don’t think the case against Freudian Slit is bad, I just find Brewha scummier.)
COMPLETE UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
Freudian Slit (5) - storyteller0910, brewha, zuma, Diomedes, sachertorte
brewha (4) - Hockey Monkey, Freudian Slit, hawkeyeop, faithfool
Diomedes (2) - HazelNutCoffee, Hal Briston
faithfool (1) - Pleonast
General observations: wow, that was fast. Nothing about my case against Freudian Slit has changed, but in a game where relatively cautious voting has been the rule, the very rapid shift in the voting gives me pause. Unfortunately, that shift could signify very nearly anything - scum seeing an opportunity to save one of their own, kill a townie, and blame it on me; townies dis-satisfied with the case against brewha leaping on the first viable alternative; something else that I’m not considering. I’m not going to change my vote because of it.
It is plain that either brewha or Freudian Slit is likely to be today’s target. My preference is for the latter - particularly in light of her brief and insubstantial defense and subsequent disappearance - but I am willing to switch my vote to the former to ensure a lynch if necessary. I’ll be monitoring the voting pretty closely for the next two hours, but I will be gone completely between 12:00 and 1:30 my time (ie, until one half hour before the deadline). Hopefully others will be here during that time period to guard against the possibility of a no-lynch.
While it could be any of your other theories, this is the one that sums up my feelings best. If it’s not going to be Diomedes or Pleonast, then I’d much rather switch to Freudian Slit rather than brewha.
Only three more hours until the final vote.
Hal, you need to back your statement up with action.
Rysto? You still playing?