You-Solve-It Mafia Game

[Hawkeyeop]

EBWOP

Yes I do know Freudian is female. No I don’t know why I keep posting he/him.

[Hockey_Monkey]

@Hawkeyeop

You are arguing that I don’t find Brewha scummy enough? Yeesh. In this case though, Brewha’s action was not scummy. He didn’t jump on a bandwagon, he started one. At the time of Brewha’s vote, Freudian had only one vote upon him. A number of people had one vote on them. They, in part, weren’t getting additional votes, because they were unlikely to reach majority. Brewha’s 2nd vote for Freudian started the momentum. Now an additional vote would be the third and she would a viable alternate to Brewha. So, if Brewha was scum, he was trading a scum with little suspicion upon him (at the time) for one of great suspicion. It doesn’t seem like a great trade off to me.

No, I’m not arguing anything at the moment. Just saying that scum do in fact vote for each other.

[Hockey_Monkey]

@Pleonast

Here’s my best estimate at final vote counts (since NAF doesn’t post them). I’ve colored the dead based on their alignment.

Day One
10 - MHaye - (OAOW, zuma, brewha, Dio, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Cookies, Pleonast, HockeyMonkey, Freudian Slit)
3 - zuma - (sach, Mhaye Hal Briston)
1 - Diomedes - (Storyteller)
1 - brewha - (ShadowFacts)
3 - No Vote - faith, Hazel, Rysto

Day Two
8 - OneAndOnlyWanderers - (Hal Briston, Hawkeyop, sach, shadowfacts, Pleo, Freudian Slit, Kat, HockeyMonkey)
1 - Diomedes - (Faithfool)
1 - Faithfool - (Dio)
6 - No Vote - brewha, Hazel, Rysto, zuma, story, OAOW

Day Three
7 - brewha (sach, HockeyMonkey, Hawkeyeop, Freudian Slit, Rysto, Hal Briston, Pleo)
2 - Diomedes (faithfool, kat)
2 - faithfool (zuma, Dio)
1 - Hawkeyeop (brewha)
2 - No Vote - Hazel, story

Day Four
8 - Freudian Slit (story, sach, brewha , zuma, dio, faithfool, rysto, hawk)
2 - brewha (HM, Freudian)
2 - Diomedes (HNC, Hal)
1 - faithfool (pleo)
0 - No Vote - N/A

I’ll go ahead and post, but I want to stare at this a bit to see if it means anything.

The first thing that jumps out at me here is that **HazelNutCoffee ** did not vote for either **OAOW ** or Freudian Slit. She was the only person not to vote for either one. The fact that she did not vote at all for the first 3 days is also concerning. Good way for scum to hide.

Back to brewha. I believe that when he cast his vote on Freudian, he was pretty sure he was going to be lynched. It was a good place to put his vote at the time. If he had been lynched, it would have bolstered **Freudian ** a bit as a townie. (Because people could make the exact argument that hawkeyeop is making that he wouldn’t have voted for her if she were fellow scum. It’s all WIFOM anyway.) When the wagon started rolling it was too late for him to get off without looking suspicious. So yeah, I still think **brewha ** is scum, and his vote for Freudian Slit is another tic in that column.

[brewha]

@Pleonast

<snip>

Day Four
8 - Freudian Slit (story, sach, brewha , zuma, dio, faithfool, rysto, hawk)
2 - brewha (HM, Freudian)
2 - Diomedes (HNC, Hal)
1 - faithfool (pleo)
0 - No Vote - N/A

I’ll go ahead and post, but I want to stare at this a bit to see if it means anything.

Hey Pleonast, I find it a bit suspicious that you seemed to have forgotten who you voted for yesterday. It’s appears that you didn’t put your name right next to Freudian Slit’s where it belongs.

Day Four
8 - Freudian Slit (story, Brewha, sach, zuma, dio, faithfool, rysto, hawk)
2 - brewha (HM, Freudian, Pleonast)
2 - Diomedes (HNC, Hal)

0 - No Vote - N/A

I don’t know if you were implying that the voters are listed in order or not, but FTR, I’d like to point out that I was the second one to vote for Freudian Slit. I did not jump on a bandwagon at the end when it didn’t matter.

[brewha]

EBWOP

I see that you just copied the order that NAF listed the votes. So disregard that part.

But, you Hockey Monkey and Fruedian Slit all did vote for me. It seems that you and HockeyMonkey were also trying to get the bandwagon shifted off of Fruedian at the end.

[Pleonast]

I’m looking over the votes over the past Days. If brewha were scum, we’d be three for four. Possible, but I’ll file that under less likely than he’s not.

I’ll work from the assumption that’s he’s Town, for now. So, why would the lynch fail?

1. The Scum all voted for him, but enough Town chose wisely. Pros are 4/7 Scum, Cons 0/4, Abs 0/2. Likelihood = 5%; I don’t think they’re likely to all vote the same way. Why risk it for a non-critical lynch so early in the game?
2. The Scum mostly voted for him, but missed the hammer deadline. Pros are 3/7 Scum, Cons 0/4, Abs 1/2. Likelihood = 5%; I can’t see Scum unintentionally missing an opportunity.
3. The Scum mostly voted for him, but one decided a no lynch is tactically better than a mislynch. Pros are 3/7 Scum, Cons 1/4, Abs 0/2. Likelihood = 30%; Possible. Scum might not be willing to place the lynching vote, especially if they have a good excuse to vote for someone else.
4. Some Scum voted for him, but some didn’t. Pros are 2/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 2/6. Likelihood = 50%; this is most likely. Scum have a disincentive to create a pattern. I think this is by far the most likely pattern.
5. The Town is driving the wrong way. Pros are 1/7 Scum, Cons and Abs 3/6. Likelihood = 10%; we can’t discount the possibility that it was mostly Town hounding brewha.

(In case it’s not clear, my likelihoods are estimates of how probable each case is in my own opinion.)

So let’s say the scum were split on the brewha vote. That means one of sach, HockeyMonkey, Hawkeyeop, Rysto, Hal Briston, Pleo are scum. And two of faithfool, zuma, Dio, Hazel. (Removing brewha, since this is all premised on him being Town.)

And I think scum were more likely to not vote for Freud. These are HockeyMonkey, Hazel, Hal, Pleo. The intersection of my two short lists is Hazel. Based on this vote analysis, I’ll
vote Hazel

I’m also now suspicious of faithfool, zuma, Dio, HockeyMonkey, and Hal (in no particular order). And least suspicious of brewha, sach, Hawkeyeop, and Rysto.

On preview: oops, that’s what I get from blindly copying NAF’s vote counts.

[Pleonast]

@brewha

@Pleonast

@Brewha

I couldn’t be more opposed. Either kill me today or call me town and focus on someone else. This is two days in a row that too much time has been analyzing me to no positive outcome. So you are suggesting we do that again tomorrow? That would be the most pro scum thing we could do.

If the majority opinion is that analyzing me again tomorrow or the next day is a good idea - just chuck me off the cliff now - because there is no way we can win if we keep wasting time like this.

Wow, you attack me for trying to get others out of the blinders of focusing only on you. I was beginning to lean towards thinking you were one of us. But this whole “lynch me or trust me, NOW” simply reeks of Scum trying to force a false dichotomy. (Similar to what Hal’s been trying to do, too.)

And then this sudden rush onto Freud? story made a reasonable case and now there’s a headlong rush to lynch? Looks like a lot of me-too votes, perfect for scum jump on. Count me as highly skeptical of that bandwagon.

Based on brewha’s reaction to my post and speed with which the Freud votes built up:
unvote faithfool
vote brewha

Here’s the first post that tripped my scumdar. You claim that I ‘attacked’ you. I did no such thing. I can’t even see a way that my post could be misconstrued as an attack. I assure you that the ‘lynch me or trust me’ was not a bluff. I didn’t want another day wasted by analyzing me. This post seems alot like someone trying to protect Frued by getting the bandwagon focused back on me.

Here’s the entire post where brewha claims he didn’t attack me. I’ve added green for emphasis.

@brewha

Pleonast, you’re going to have to show your work. You say:

1. The Scum all voted for him, but enough Town chose wisely. Pros are 4/7 Scum, Cons 0/4, Abs 0/2. Likelihood = 10%

10% of what? How are you getting that number?

I just don’t buy your math. Either the scum decided that they would or would not vote together. That looks alot like 50/50 odds to me.

If there are 4 scum, 3 town had voted for me. I’m not sure what order it happened, but I’d guess that once two or three town voted against me, the scum all jumped on board and hoped a 4th and 5th townie would cast their vote and lynch me.

Like Hockey Monkey said, there’s not much strategic advantage to letting me live. The only scenario that makes sense that I’m alive is that all the scum had voted for me. Unless the scum just missed a deadline or weren’t paying attention. It which case, they aren’t very good at this and we should be doing much better than we are.

As for this:

My suggestion: let’s put him on hold for one Day. If you think he’s Scum (and I think he’s more likely than not), save your vote for Tomorrow and vote for your second-place toDay.

I couldn’t be more opposed. Either kill me today or call me town and focus on someone else. This is two days in a row that too much time has been analyzing me to no positive outcome. So you are suggesting we do that again tomorrow? That would be the most pro scum thing we could do.

If the majority opinion is that analyzing me again tomorrow or the next day is a good idea - just chuck me off the cliff now - because there is no way we can win if we keep wasting time like this.

He directly says my suggestion is a scummy thing to do. That’s personal and to me feels like an attack. Especially when my intention was to get players to consider other people to lynch.
Gah! I wrote this before the previous post, but it refuses to post!

[Rysto]

Somebody needs to check Pleonast’s vote counts. I know for a fact that I voted for Dio on Day 2. I’d do it myself but I don’t have the time right now.

[Hal_Briston]

@Hawkeyeop

Hal, on the other hand, said he would rather vote for Freudian then Brewha, but then never actually voted, sending massive red flags my way.

<shrug> My vote wasn’t necessary to sent Freudian over the cliff. If I had switched and she turned up scum, then you could claim “oh, scum had to vote for her because they couldn’t save her”. If I switched and she turned up clean, then it would be “oh, what a scummy bandwagon vote”.

Since I had no idea if she was scum or not, and couldn’t influence the vote either way, there wasn’t much point in my rushing to switch my vote.

[HazelNutCoffee]

@Hockey Monkey

The first thing that jumps out at me here is that **HazelNutCoffee ** did not vote for either **OAOW ** or Freudian Slit. She was the only person not to vote for either one. The fact that she did not vote at all for the first 3 days is also concerning. Good way for scum to hide.

WTF? I voted the first day for zuma. I didn’t vote the second Day because OAOW was on the verge of being rush-lynched, which I didn’t agree with; Day 3 was my brain fart when I completely forgot about the entire game.

Why, exactly, is my not having voted for OAOW and Freudian Slit suspcious? Freudian Slit’s lynch became inevitable during the half-day I was unable to be online (and I explained this ahead of time). I did vote that Day and I had my reasons for doing so.

[Pleonast]

It looks like my final vote counts have multiple errors. Anyone want to try to come up with the correct ones? (Hint: it’s traditionally a mod’s job to post final vote counts.) I don’t have time at the moment.

I don’t think the analysis leading to my vote for Hazel is affected, so I’ll be leaving it there.

Where is everyone? I’m rather busy at work today, but at least I posted an attempt at analysis.

[HazelNutCoffee]

You know who else intersects both of your lists, Pleo? You.

I find your reasoning rather arbitrary. Why do you think scum wouldn’t jump on the Freudian bandwagon? Her lynch, from what I can tell, became inevitable fairly quickly. Don’t you think scum would more than willingly vote for their own if it became clear she was going to be lynched anyway?

I would also like to point out that when I last signed on yesterDay, brewha and not Freudian Slit was on the chopping block. The votes swung during the half-day I couldn’t log on. I didn’t vote for brewha because I didn’t feel he was scum. I voted for Dio. I’ll go back and find the reasons I posted when I get the chance.

[joyfool]

@Hawkeyeop

…I would, however, throw Faithfool into the list of suspects. Her vote for Freudian came after we already had a majority. In fact, I find that much more suspicious then Pleo’s refusal to jump on the bandwagon and vote of Brewha…

Useless question and explanation: 1) When we vote (especially if we don’t wish to change it) matters? 2) I thought I was making it a majority, when upon looking back at it, I got the damn thing confused with ending it early. Or am I still not understanding the process right?

…Hey look there. Faithfool and Hal Briston come up as most suspicious under both of those ways of looking at things. So they are my top two targets. Faithfool, due to having more additional evidence against her is the current #1. Of course, I think one can twist my arm into voting Brewha.

Of course. Again. Oh yay.
P.S. Thanks to Dio for at least giving me a bit of a rest. 'Twas much appreciated.

[Hockey_Monkey]

Please take these comments Out Of Game:

::game hat off::

@faithfool

Useless question and explanation: 1) When we vote (especially if we don’t wish to change it) matters?

Yup.

@faithfool

2. I thought I was making it a majority, when upon looking back at it, I got the damn thing confused with ending it early. Or am I still not understanding the process right?

There is no process to follow. You aren’t doing anything right or wrong. Everything you do and say, when and how, will be scrutinized at some point. Ain’t it fun?

@faithfool

Of course. Again. Oh yay.
P.S. Thanks to Dio for at least giving me a bit of a rest. 'Twas much appreciated.

Aren’t you glad you aren’t brewha?

:: puts game hat back on ::

[Mtgman]

You thought you had seen strange. You thought you had felt weird. You thought nothing could shock you by now. How many times had you been inside someone else’s head as they died by now? Just once was enough to really mess up Jean Grey, and you’ve been through it several times.

So, when a flow of maggots seeped out into the courtyard at sunrise, you looked at them with jaded eyes. It was when they looked back that you started getting a bit suprised. Tens of thousands of tiny eyes locked with each of the surviviors, and the world dissolved.

@storyteller0910's tasty corpse

It was a dark and stormy night.

Well, rather more drizzly than stormy, but being night, it was certainly dark.

Although it was no more dark, optically speaking, than any other standard night might have been, so from a certain standpoint the employment of the adjective “dark” to apply to this particular night might engender in the reader a sense that its darkness was of darker quality than the darkness of a more typical night.

So it would be more appropriate to indicate that it was a drizzly night with relatively standard post-dusk illuminatory characteristics.

Although in the strictest sense, the use of the word “night” might be construed as misleading, as the event in question actually occurred both before and after the time-point commonly called “midnight,” and therefore might be said to have occurred both at night and in the morning. And so I shall further revise my previous statement to say:

It was a period of time bridging the gap between evening and morning, in which ambient illumination was at a level considered to be temporally average and outdoor precipitation was mild and intermittent. As I tossed uneasily in my bed, I heard a very strange sound in the hallway outside. Now, my father was a wise man, before his life ended in that tragic hula hoop incident, and on matters such as these I have always adhered closely to his counsel. My father’s advice was as follows: Son, if you’re ever trapped in an abandoned monastery miles from any chance of rescue, and surrounded by psychopathic killers who want to snuff out your life, and you hear a suspicious noise in the hallway, there’s only one intelligent course of action – tell no one, and wander the halls alone to investigate.

So I did. I followed the source of the strange sound down a dark staircase, into a hallway in the catacombs below the monastery. Eventually, I happened upon a small pile of wooden boxes, stacked neatly in a corner; each one was labeled “DANGER: HIGH EXPLOSIVE. DO NOT TOUCH!!!” With five exclamation points, and quote marks, so you knew they were serious. I sat on the boxes for a few minutes – I was winded from my walk – then proceeded on my way.

Eventually I passed over a strange suspension bridge. Hm, I thought, that’s an unusual thing to have in a monastery.. I looked over the side and saw that the area under the bridge was filled with molten lava. I leaned way over the rope handle of the bridge, far enough that the slightest shove would disturb my balance and send me plunging into the hot red death below.

Then I continued on my way. I navigated a narrow walkway beside a pit filled with swords, all buried hilt-first into the ground with their blades pointing straight up. I walked along a large hallway with a line of high-powered machine guns, all clearly loaded and placed on stands pointing directly at the hallway. I continued under a gigantic sheet of plate glass, suspended over the walkway by a single piece of fishing line that could have been cut with ordinary office scissors. Finally, I descended another stairway, this one winding and unsteady, filled with gaps such that the slightest mis-step would send me plunging to my doom.

I reached the bottom, and there waiting was a small wooden table, and on it, a single small, white, fluffy bunny – the source of the noise. Laughing at my own nervousness, I approached the bunny.

The last thing I heard before it murdered me and feasted on my flesh were these words. These words - especially the last of them - were easily the most memorable I had ever heard, or would have been, if the bunny hadn’t consumed the portion of my brain responsible for creating new memories.

“I trained this bunny just for you,” the voice of the person responsible for my death said coldly. “My noble predecessor lost a battle of wits over a buttercup. I refuse to lose.”

And the rest was silence.

And white fur.

Management would like to apologize for any inconvenience assosciates felt as a result of the schedule slippage on the release of this information. Unexpected occurrances have been the norm this cycle.

Enjoy,
Steven

[zuma]

Is the last bit a Princess Bride reference?

What’s with the white bunny? Jefferson Airplane? Monty Python? I was once attacked by a wild animal?

[Hockey_Monkey]

Color me confused.

[Rysto]

That last bit was clearly a Princess Bride reference. I’d bet just about anything that’s the trait.

[zuma]

How is the Princess Bride a trait?

[Rysto]

I think that our killer lied about his/her dossier. I’m going through the 2 threads to see if there’s anything about The Princess Bride in either. So far, not so good.