As morning breaks on your 6th day in this nightmareish cororate retreat, you hear over the loudspeakers a voice singing unaccompanied. Faintly at first. Then slowly getting louder, and louder until it becomes ear splitting.
“BAH BAH BLACKSHEEP HAVE YOU ANY WOOL? YES SIR YES SIR THREE BAGS FULL”
Over and over it plays warbling between the keys of A and G# with the occasional giggle between lyrics.
Were the silent pigs taunting you again? Were they once more calling you sheep? Had they failed to kill anyone?
No…this was a specific taunt.
Hal Briston - The Cubicle Evesdropper (and a perfectly happy Associate)
is dead.
9 of you are left, so it only takes 5 like minded people to secure a lynch. and 6 to end the Day early.
Seven Days from this post is the lynch deadline. Next Sunday at 2pm pacific.
At this point, I think there is a scum up on the leaderboard, with another scum in second. The next person on the list (Diomedes) has had some suspicion and seems to be a good target.
**HazelNutCoffee ** started off the votes for Dio, then **Rysto ** adds:
**Hawkeyeop ** comes next with:
OK, I will.
**Sach ** is next with:
Then dearly departed **Hal ** votes for Dio.
The nail in the coffin:
We got led around by the nose on this lynch folks. The question is who was doing the leading. It wasn’t Hal, and I don’t think it was Sach. My top suspicions are brewha, HazelNutCoffee, and Rysto. I’m not really sure about Hawkeyeop.
First, I’m going to get this off my chest. Because I was furious upon logging in after the day ended and seeing that Diomedes had been lynched. There will be little strategizing in this post, mostly venting. But it needs to be said, and hopefully read if we have a chance to win. I don’t think we will win. I’ll be fucking shocked if we win, based on the history of this game.
That was the most dysfunctional, ridiculous, and asinine lynch ever, in all my mafia games. It will go down in the hall of fame of town stupidity. First of all, almost nobody gave any reason for the Diomedes votes. Second, we all did the ridiculous “wait until the last hour” voting. I’ll include myself in this, somewhat, for waiting until the day before. But we cannot do this again. Third, nobody seems to give a shit about vote history. I remember Pleonast and to a lesser extent Brewha at least making cases based on the best evidence we have… vote histories.
Diomedes was a terrible, terrible lynch choice. He was key in getting the freudian lynch done. He was out front on day 1 in getting all the dossiers revealed. It was a retarded fucking lynch. And I think we need to take a good, hard look at the voting patterns of the past 2 days.
I also think we need to do a better job at justifying our votes. I think everyone that votes need to list reasons. Even if you’ve listed them before. We have to bat .750 from here on out. Yesterday was total and complete bullshit.
Yesterday I mentioned, in a reply to Pleonast, that Hal would need to be talked about today. I was very skeptical of Hal’s role-claim from day 1. A few others had voiced that opinion as well. I didn’t really say anything about Hal because I thought it was possible that Hal lied when he said he only got faithfool’s dossier.
I thought it may have been possible that he got to request one per night, but claimed he only got one as to not get night-killed. One reason I believed this was because just recieving one random dossier seems kind of pointless. Another reason was faithfool’s very suspicious post on night 0. If anyone deserved an investigation night 0, it was faithfool. However, saying anything about this possibility would have endangered Hal. Did anyone else have this thought?
I was going to ask Hal this question today, as I thought we’re just about out of time with no margin for error. It started to increasingly bother me that he had not been killed yet, as I thought scum would have considered this as well. Now that Hal is confirmed town, I want to see if he breadcrumbed anything.
All in all, I kind of put him on the back burner, hoping that my mild suspicion was correct. I think this may have been why Hal was finally killed.
Now, I want to examine Hal’s day 1 revelations.
Hal, on day 1 (420-440ish), made the following claims:
This is a very quick re-read, and will be examined more in depth tomorrow. Freudian was right up to bat asking Hal if he had all the dossiers. Hah. Hal replied “wouldn’t you like to know”.
Now, what we can learn from this is that scum freudian was worried about Hal having all the dossiers. Only at the end of the day after all dossiers were revealed did Hal say he only got faithfool’s and would get no more.
So, I believe that scum who revealed prior to Hal’s claim were more likely to lie, and scum who revealed after would be less likely to lie, worried that Hal had more dossiers.
Players who revealed dossiers prior to Hal making his claim (if scum, possibly more likely to lie):
Players who revealed dossiers after Hal claimed (if scum, possibly less likely to lie):
Storyteller
Cookies
OAOW
Freudian Slit
shadowfacts
Hawkeye
sachertorte
kat
Hal
This may explain why OAOW did not lie about his 7-11 trait. Beyond that, I’ll need to think about it some more.
It’s interesting that all the night kills have been from the “less likely to lie” group. We seem to have a lot of potential liars in the first group.
Day 1
Mhaye (10): OAOW, zuma, brewha, freudian slit, Diomedes, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Cookies, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
zuma (4): sachertorte, Mhaye, Hal Briston, HazelNutCoffee
Diomedes (1): storyteller
Hal(1): faithfool
brewha (1): shadowfacts
No Vote (1): Rysto
Day 2
Day 2 votes in correct order… I’m not sure there’s much to be gleaned from day 2, for when Cookies revealed the killer’s trait, a OAOW lynch was inevitable.
However, I thought I’d list the pre-revelation vote count:
The only things to note were that Pleonast placed the 5th vote on OAOW, then unvoted because he said he didn’t want to end the day early. Diomedes placed the 9th vote (I think we’ve discussed that one), and OAOW self-hammered the 10th vote to end the day instantly. Rysto said he placed his vote on Diomedes because of Diomedes’s 9th vote.
Day 3
Day 3 vote counts: (This was the no-lynch day - Brewha was 1 vote short of majority)
brewha (7): sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, fruedian slit, Rysto, Hal, Pleonast
faithfool (2): Diomedes, zuma
Diomedes (2): faithfool, kat
Hawkeyeop(1): Brewha
No Vote (2): HazelNutCoffee, storyteller
Day 4
Here was the state of voting before story laid out his case against Fruedian Slit if anyone is interested:
brewha (6): Hockey Monkey, freudian slit, hawkeyeop, sachertorte, Diomedes, faithfool
faithfool (2): Pleonast, zuma
Diomedes (1): HazelNutCoffee
Not yet voted: Rysto, storyteller, brewha, Hal
I also want to take a look at day 5 voting history, whereby HNC and brewha were tied 3-3, then all of a sudden HNC voted Diomedes (the most ridiculous vote ever), and a final-hours pile-on lynched a townie.
HM, I think we’re thinking the same way here. All things were slow when brewha and HNC were garnering votes. Then all of a sudden the Diomedes lynch went crazy. I’ve been a brewha defender, but I have to re-think this. We have a week and I hope we hear actual analysis from some of the silent players.
My prime suspect remains HNC. I won’t place a vote just yet. I really want to hear from the most-bullshit-lynched victim ever, Diomedes. I give him credit for actually posting a death scene. If I had that happen to me, I’d be torn between a no death scene, or a “go fuck yourselves” scene If I get lynched you’ll get one of the two.
I’ll post more later - but seriously, how was I supposed to know my one vote was going to turn into a lynch? Rysto was the one who called my one vote a bandwagon (just an observation, btw, at least for the time being). If I’d wanted to instigate a pile-on it would have made more sense for me to vote for brewha at that point. It wasn’t a throwaway vote - I had reasons which I posted and which made sense to me at the time.
Sorry to say, but I think we’re hosed. So far the SOP has been point fingers at me, then in the final hours of the day, lynch someone else. While this has worked once, I really don’t think it’s the best strategy. It looks like Hockey Monkey is hell bent on doing it again today though.
The town is getting lead around by the scum. I just don’t know who the leader is. The problem is that actually townies are saying very little. It seems like everyone is waiting for someone else to make a decision and then blindly following them. The problem is that it’s not the good guys making the decisions. If we don’t get more participation from actual townies, we have no chance of winning. At this point, however, I doubt that even that boosts our odds much.
It was very dumb of me to vote for Dio yesterday without a valid reason. At least we know he was town. I’m going to go back and see who he’s been voting for and for what reasons. At least we know that his intentions were good since he is now confirmed town.
As for now, my suspicions remain on Hockey Monkey and Pleonast. Hawkeyeop is getting up to the top of my list as well - both for his unfounded accusations of me two days ago and his pleading for the final vote for Dio at the end of yesterday. I’m going to look into Dio’s actions before casting a vote though.
Thanks for the colored vote counts, zuma. Saves me the opportunity to get it wrong.
While some players like to look the reasoning behind votes (and I hope a few people do do a detailed look at that; the more approaches, the more likely we get one that works), I’ll stick with a simple vote analysis.
I’m not sure how much we can get from Day 1. We had very little information and Scum probably scattered their votes. If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us, there’d be 3 scum voting for MHaye and 2 not. So, I’ll guess:
1 scum in zuma, brewha, Hawkeyeop, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
2 scum in sachertorte, HazelNutCoffee, faithfool, Rysto
I don’t think the pre-revelation votes matter much–simply shows who’re the more active players without giving any info on scumminess. And the end of the Day votes are not useful either. It was very clear that OAOW was scum. I won’t make scum estimation from this.
I think the Scum probably split themselves between for/against brewha.
1 scum in sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, Rysto, Pleonast
2 scum in zuma, faithfool, Brewha, HazelNutCoffee
(Yes, that’s slightly different than yesterDay. I think I need to include brewha in this analysis.)
Based on what I said yesterDay, the Scum mostly avoided the bandwagon:
1 scum in brewha, zuma, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
2 scum in Hockey Monkey, Pleonast, HazelNutCoffee
Do I really think Hockey and Hazel are scum? Maybe. But yesterDay, Hal was in that pool. Would the Scum really make it that easy to make a case against two of them? I’m probably over-thinking on what’s merely a scrap of information.
Three scum left, and a Townie is lynched. Got to guess:
2 scum in Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, sach, brewha
1 scum in Pleo, zuma, Hockey Monkey, faithfool
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
So, what’s this all mean? Let’s look at it by player; I’ll list their scumminess fraction for each Day I estimated:
brewha: 1/5, 2/4, 1/6, 2/5
faithfool: 2/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/4
Hockey Monkey: 1/5, 1/5, 2/3, 1/4
Hawkeyeop: 1/5, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
HazelNutCoffee: 2/4, 2/4, 2/3, 2/5
Pleonast: 1/5, 1/5, 2/3, 1/4
Rysto: 2/4, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
sachertorte: 2/4, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
zuma: 1/5, 2/4, 1/6, 1/4
Note that the analysis is as objective as I can make it. But since I know I’m Town, I’ll base my vote on using that:
brewha: 1/4, 2/4, 1/6, 2/5
faithfool: 2/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/3
Hockey Monkey: 1/4, 1/4, 2/2, 1/3
Hawkeyeop: 1/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
HazelNutCoffee: 2/4, 2/4, 2/2, 2/5
Rysto: 2/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
sachertorte: 2/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
zuma: 1/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/3
Hazel still looks the scummiest to me. Least scummy are Hawkeye and zuma. Everyone else looks about equally scummy to me. I’ll start off my vote with vote HazelNutCoffee
Depending on the clue we get from Hal or other reasonable arguments, I’m willing to change my vote to anyone other than Hawkeye or zuma.
Enough with brewha votes. 5 is a majority and 6 is instalynch. 3 scum are out there and can insta-lynch giving us our last mislynch. we all should not vote without reasons. Enough with all votes until we can digest what has happened. Quit fucking voting and start giving reasons.
If I get lynched you’ll get one of the two.