Agreed.
New Selzer/DMR Iowa poll will be available tomorrow at 7pm Central time.
The good stuff this time, not this crappy brown acid we’ve been getting. 
If I’d thought about it for a second, I’d have realized I was comparing my average, which includes a lot of pre-debate polling, with numbers from 538 that only included post-debate polls. When I dropped all the pre-debate polls from my average, it was quite close to theirs, being only 0.3 percentage points off at most for any given candidate.
Only place where the difference was particularly noticeable was with Harris and Buttigieg: they have them tied at 5.8% in post-debate polling, while I have Harris at 6.0% and Buttigieg at 5.5%.
Given how much I’ve watched my own numbers jump around, due at least in part to averaging over a short time interval with a limited number of polls at any given time, I suspect that any difference between 538’s post-debate average and other averages we’ve seen (including my most recent numbers) has more to do with that sort of noise than any sort of signal from the debate. We’ll see what happens as more polls come online.
That’s true, although I’m hoping the momentum for Beto, which does make a certain amount of sense, continues.
Wanna make any wild assed predictions?
With no basis whatsoever I’m guessing Warren and Biden within MOE of each other, Biden insignificantly higher. Which is in practical terms advantage Warren based on ground game.
Any others want to take stab in the same dark?
That sounds about right, and I am cautiously optimistic about a surge for Beto.
Aaaand here’s the results of the Selzer/DMR poll:
Warren 22
Biden 20
Sanders 11
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
Klobuchar 3
Booker 3
Gabbard 2
O’Rourke 2
Steyer 2
Yang 2
Everyone else <2%
I’m thinking Sanders is gonna be out earlier rather than later, because despite all the naysayers I think Sanders is in it for the ideas, not for his ego. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that Warren’s got the progressive vote this cycle, so Sanders is likely to throw his support to her.
It’s gonna be a two-person race before too long, I think. Warren’s going to get close to 100% of Sanders’s vote when that happens. Are there any candidates that, when they drop out, will see close to 100% of their votes transfer to Biden?
Biden’s been in the lead, but the second and third place candidates have consistently been Warren and Sanders. When one of them (Sanders) drops out, I’m having trouble seeing how he maintains any lead.
And I was thinking this before this latest poll.
(That said, I’m officially out of the prediction game ever since 2016, so all this is just blathering).
MOE +/- 4.
Warren v Biden. It’s on.
I seriously would be fine with either and have concerns with each. Hopefully one or the other will stand out better on her or his merits. Warren’s lead is well within MOE but her ground game superiority makes this her lead for realz.
Will Sanders continue to honor their nonaggression pact as his sun sets?
I think this is completely wrong. I know a bunch of Bernie supporters, and they all seem to hate Warren.
In 2016 when many Bernie online supporters were found to be making sexist attacks towards Hillary/her supporters a common retort was “we’d have voted for Elizabeth Warren if she ran” as a way to dance around it.
Shows that was a lie.
I know it’s just one poll (referenced a couple posts ago), but it’s interesting that Buttigieg seems to be the “minor contender enjoying a bit of a surge,” not O’Rourke (nor Booker, whom I personally prefer among the three). Maybe just an Iowa thing — we should know more in coming days.
ETA:Yes, it’s an Iowa thing. Buttigieg was polling even higher there in June.
Or, you know, it shows they aren’t a hive mind. It’s within the world of known physics that different Sanders supporters may have different feelings about Warren.
But thinking Warren is going to get 100% of Bernie’s vote when he drops out is ludicrous. I don’t trust the numbers completely but Biden and Warren are basically tied as the second choice of Sanders supporters on the weekly Morning Consult polling. Obviously there’s more going into people’s choice besides “progressive lane” or “establishment lane”.
The moment of truth will come when Warren is confronted with the reality that she will have to pivot toward the center a wee bit on things like healthcare. She will have to somehow reassure voters in the center that they won’t lose their current health insurance, and that will means some sort of <swallow> compromise. I could see Bernie Bros going full on Benedict if they sense that Warren isn’t serious about carrying the progressive torch. That doesn’t seem to be a problem now, but it never is in the primaries.
Cool? I know a ton of Sanders supporters, but all the ones I know are already edging their way over into Warren’s camp. Your experience is not at all the same as mine.
There will be a tiny–tiny–number of Sanders supporters that will go third party. But I think Sanders will, within the next six months, withdraw from the race and throw his support to Warren. Few of his supporters will fail to follow.
I have a feeling that if the Ukraine scandal becomes a thing, it could hurt Biden as much as it hurts Trump. I expect Biden to take a hit among Democrats.
Here’s a link to the complete poll results.
Some other results from the poll:
First plus second choice:
Warren 42
Biden 30
Sanders 21
Buttigieg 18
Harris 16
First plus second choice in March Selzer/DMR poll:
Warren 21
Biden 46
Sanders 38
Buttigieg 2 (hardly anyone knew who he was yet)
Harris 18
% considering voting for the candidate:
Warren 71
Biden 60
Sanders 50
Buttigieg 56
Harris 55
Net favorable (fav - unfav):
Warren +57
Biden +38
Sanders +22
Buttigieg +55
Harris +39
Net favorable, March:
Warren +43
Biden +68
Sanders +46
Buttigieg +6
Harris +49
Warren’s not only grown her support since March, but her net favorables have grown, and the number of people who have her as their second choice has grown as well. (They didn’t ask the ‘considering voting for’ question in March, but given how high that is for her…) Other than Buttigieg, she’s the only candidate that this can be said about.
In short, she’s still got a lot of room to increase her support in Iowa over the next 4+ months.
I dunno, on both counts.
I hope you’re right about both, but I still remember how Bernie kept contesting the 2016 nomination well after he’d ceased to have a chance to win.
And the polling I’ve seen about where Bernie’s support is coming from suggests that, among whites, Bernie has more support from moderates than you’d expect, and that Biden’s the second choice of a decent chunk of them.
I agree that if Sanders drops out, Warren will benefit a lot more than Biden will. But if she can pick up 75-80% of the Sanders vote after that point, she’ll be doing about as well as can be expected.
Another interesting thing in the numbers: with only a couple of exceptions, the net favorables for the minor candidates really stink. Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer, Williamson, and Yang are all either barely breaking even or seriously underwater in their fav - unfav numbers.
And that’s among potential Dem caucus-goers who have an opinion about them: most potential caucus-goers still don’t have any opinion about several of them (Bennet, Bullock, and Ryan in particular) but if they’re not doing particularly well among those who’ve formed an opinion, what’s the odds of big gains among those who haven’t?
All of them should consider dropping out soon. (Few of them will.)
Does it really matter? I know people want the field to shrink but isn’t almost everyone under Harris’ numbers being mostly ignored? The only exceptions are the “interesting” characters Buttigieg, Yang and Beto.