Zogby int'l poll of Iraqi attitudes: discuss

Great Debates
1

Okay, so references to the recently released poll of Iraqis have been popping up all over the boards, supporting a surprisingly wide range of arguments (“we’re fucked! they hate us!”* to “whooop! they think everything’s going to be fine!”**).

So, random dopers, what do you think?
Are the results of this poll mainly good news? about what you expected at this stage? mainly bad news? just too damn mixed to get any particular mesage out of? (and of course, why do you think so)

poll details (pdf)
(any further links welcome, of course: I for one would be interested in any critique of the polling methods used)

Me first:

Too damn mixed to say/not great.

  • View of the future:
    I was somewhat (and pleasantly)surprised at the high(ish? I think high, considering the circumstances) level of optimisim for the future indicated (31.7% of those polled thought things would be much better five years from now, 39.2% somewhat better), but I don’t know if this is a sign of Iraqis thinking that things will be really great in five years, or of Iraqis thinking that things are pretty crappy at the moment or what.

  • Attitudes towards various countries’ models of government:
    I think that the reported rating of the U.S. system of government (preferred by 23.3% of those surveyed) is a positive sign, although not wildly positive: more of those polled identified the U.S. as a positive model than they did any other country (note, though, that the total who prefered muslim/arabic countries was higher).
    However, I think there is likely to be some considerable distortion here, and in both directions, due to the perception of the U.S. as an occupying power and (possibly? I would really need to know more about polling methodology) attempts by poll subjects to give the ‘right’ answer.

  • Attitude to democracy:
    I really don’t know what to think of the results here (38.6% believed that “Democracy can work well in Iraq” vs. 50.8% “Democracy is a western way of doing things and it will not work here”)- I really want to think that this is more a reaction to occupation, combined with a lack of real understanding of what democracy is, than a genuine preference. Am I being a racist/bigot/slimball for wanting that? Could they really not want a democracy, or WTF is going on here?

  • Yikes
    Really really not good, at least as far as I am concerned:
    when asked their opinion of Osama Bin Laden,
    22.2% of respondents said “very favourable”
    13.6% said “somewhat favourable”
    12.7% said “somewhat unfavourable”
    34.0% said “very unfavourable”
    Okay, so I know that a majority of those that expressed an opinion expressed a negative one.
    I realise that the Iraqi people have been exposed to a metric shitload of anti-U.S. propaganda.
    I realise that Bin-Laden set his image up as some sort of super-pious muslim, and sold his sick-ass terrorism as a holy war.
    Nevertheless: gibber gibber gibber! As far as i know, (far?) fewer than 22.2% of Iraqi adults are illiterate, and I can’t imagine that it is too difficult to find a copy of the Koran(sp?) in Iraq. That book is hardly ambiguous on the whole “killing innocent civilians” thing. Anyone: WTF is going on here?
    My position on the war, for those interested:
    I was not in favour of the invasion of Iraq at the time that it occured, primarily because of my perception that the U.S. administration had not presented a compelling case for the immediate need for military action (key words here being presented, compelling, and immediate).
    I believe that there may well have been a case for war (Saddam was an evil, brutal tyrant; the ongoing harm to the Iraqi people caused by sanctions did need to be stopped) - but that such a case should have been made to the “international community” (in its imperfect realisation as the U.N.) before the invasion; and that the failure of those who pushed for the invasion to do so has done lasting damge to the structure of international relations.

Apologies in advance: I am about to go to sleep, and will not be responding in this thread for about 8 hours or so.

  • not an actual quote from anyone, as far as I know
    ** also, as far as I know, not said by anybody on this board. Purely for illustrative purposes, not valid where forbidden, ipso facto, habeus corpus.
2

Well its hardly surprising that the Iraqi population is mystified and confused about the “future”… whatever that might become. The poll reflects these doubts and confusion.

Government models thou maybe gave little real choices thou… a super capitalistic US style democracy is unviable in Iraq… a European style too. Islamist government seems to be unpopular too. Seems a republican “illiberal democracy” will be the practical outcome ? As for democracy… it wont work. Thou I agree the Iraqis have a very distorted vision of democracy, so do americans. Democracy comes from a orderly society more than causes an orderely society. Notions of democratic legitimacy and division of power will take a long time to set roots in the MENA.

The only good point I saw was a certain positive bent to the view of the young people. US or not... they seem to feel better about a better future. Still like I mentioned in another thread... that attitude must be waning with every day that passes.... a long occupation and the killing daily of US soldiers and Iraqi civilians doesnt make the current feelings get better.
3

The poll was good!
Not necessarily the results though - which is of course what you want to discuss. But the fact that it was carried out at all. Finally someone asked the Iraqis what they want instaed of assuming some weired shit - like “They will greet us with flowers”. Would have been nice if this could have been done before the war.
The poll itself imho asked a bunch of stupid questions with odd options that were set as to create a positive picture. But that has been discussed elsewhere.

4

I will assume you are being ironic here. Considering the “unanimous” vote for Saddam, I imagine any poll results taken before the war might be a bit skewed.

Which is another factor to consider when deciding how valid this survey is. Saddam is still not confirmed dead or in custody, and Iraq (to say the least) has no history of tolerance of non-official viewpoints or open government. It may be too soon to decide what the Iraqis really think, because they may be reluctant to say.

I wonder what the results of a survey taken in Germany in 1946 would have been. Or how seriously they would have been considered by the Allies.

Regards,
Shodan

5

There is no doubt about the value of a pre-war poll.
It just came to my mind after the confusion in the other thread on when the poll was conducted. Due to a typo some guys actually belived it dated from 2002…
The sad thing is simply that the administration thoght it knew what would happen and are now surprised it’s a mess (or aren’t they…?)

6

Damn, I hadn’t noticed that there was another thread on this.
I will ask a mod to shut this one down. (apologies if this is a double post)

7

If you mean “there is no doubt that any poll conducted while Saddam Hussein was still in power would be completely worthless”, you are correct. Not otherwise.

You did notice, did you not, that Saddam had a nasty habit of torturing to death people who publicly disagreed with him? So the idea of taking a poll saying “Do you want the US/UK to overthrow Saddam” and expecting people to answer honestly is more than a little silly.

Regards,
Shodan

8

Moderator’s Note: As small but… notes, there is already an open thread on this subject, so I’ve closed this one and direct further comments and debate to The Zogby Poll in Iraq, August 2003.