The Iraq media survey: What does it all mean?

The document can be found here:

(NB: It’s a PDF, so Acrobat Reader is required.)

The BBC article dealing with the document (where I found the survey) is here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3514504.stm

Some highlights I thought were interesting

Iraqis want the troops out of Iraq, so it seems. However, they also want them to stay for a bit.

A few reactions from me. I find it interesting that the country that Iraqis want to mimic, if any at all, is the UAE. Second place, albeit by a nose, is the United States, followed by Kuwait and Japan (?). Of course, the plurality wants no model.

More people thought that the war was, all things considered, justified. Though the largest group thought that the war was “somewhat right,” the second biggest was “absolutely wrong.” I guess that, when dealing with war, nobody really thinks that war can be sort of bad.

Iraqis believe that they are better off than immediately before the war.

56% believe their lives are “quite good.”

In other news, when asked “And, if any, which one (national leader in Iraq) do you not trust at all?,” Saddam Hussein got second place as the least trusted leader, behind Mr Ahmed Chalabi. (3.1% to 10.3%)

What do y’all think?

Here’s another breakdown of the survey. On this page it analyzes by ethnic group. It’s worthwhile noting the responses of Iraqi Arabs; 46% say the invasion was wrong, 48% say it humiliated Iraq, 60% say they oppose the presence of coalition forces, and 21% say attacks on those forces are “acceptable”.

One thing that I noticed from skimming it this afternoon is that Iraqis are some pretty tough SOBs.

Their sense of optimism is thoroughbred.

God bless 'em.

They are pretty solid in their preferences to have Iraqis take care of Iraq’s problems.
Kurds certainly see things differently than the Arabs.

Does it say anywhere if any women participated in this survey?

there’s a BIG question in my mind–not about the results of the survey, but about the whole concept that it is possible to take an accurate survey in Iraq today.

Surveys in democratic countries are usually proven accurate (election results usually match the predictions), because of very careful scientific methods used.A tiny group of people is chosen who represent the whole country, telephone calls are made , and most people answer honestly.

But in Iraq-- does the phone system work well enough to reach a true cross-section of the population? And in a culture where having the wrong political views can get you killed , how many people answer political questions honestly to a total stranger?
Will a woman even dare to speak to an unknown male on the phone (or in person)?

Before we start analysing the numbers, lets make sure the data is accurate.

chappachula, point well made. I think it also important to think about the timeline and imagine how much different the responses are today than they would have been a year ago (a year ago this survey would not even have been possible - or would have been 100% in support of Saddam). Hopefully in years to come, the citizens of Iraq will feel they can give their honest opinions without worrying what may happen to them or their families in return.

Of course, let’s not forget that we might query the former rulers of Rhodesia regarding the change to Zimbabwe and get a similar result. The Arabs were a minority who enforced their will in a veritably Rhodesian fashion upon the majority. The problem is that they gave the majority quite a few axes to grind, and any hatchet-burying is likely to be in skulls. I doubt that there will be any sort of “reconciliation” hearings there.