NFL 2008 - Weekly Predictions

The Game Room
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Hey everyone. I’ve decided to resurrect the weekly NFL thread in which we predict the outcomes of every game each week. This will be an ongoing thread for the rest of the season. Expect each Thursday or Friday for the upcoming week’s lines to be added and predictions made. I invite everyone to make their own predictions and not wait for me to post each weeks lines on the chance that I don’t have the time or energy to do it. I can’t promise I’ll be able to provide a full analysis every week. I also invite criticism or debate over my assertions.

Additionally I expect this thread to become the catch-all for most of the weekly minutiae such as injury updates, coach firings, contract signings as well as general ranting and raving about the inadequacies of your team. For the time being we’ll leave the Fantasy Football discussion to the other ongoing and periodic threads happening already.

Here’s the basics: Each game is listed with the point spread and the over/under. These odds are pulled from the USA Today’s Sheridan Odds each Thursday (or whatever day I get to it). Additionally I like to do what I call my OMNI picks, basically I pick my 5 best games against the spread each week. The simple goal is to pick all 5 right and was inspired by a big money football pool I used to participate in.

Here’s the Week 7 predictions and lines. It’s already Saturday and I haven’t been able to watch as much football through the first 6 weeks as I’d like so I’m not going to be terribly thorough.

Sunday, Oct. 19
Tennessee 8 KANSAS CITY 35
Two teams both coming off bye weeks. Tennessee is a much better team but that’s a pretty hefty spread for a road game in once difficult Arrowhead. The Titans are hurting at WR and could be without some key guys on both sides of the ball, but KC is facing the biggest loss with LJ suspended for the game. The Chefs were a long shot any way you slice it, but taking LJ off the field eliminates their real weapon. I have no doubt that Kerry Collins has a turd game in him soon, but this won’t be it.

Titans, Under

San Diego 1 BUFFALO 46½
These are two teams I don’t have a good read on. Both have been somewhat inconsistent and have underachieving running games. The Chargers have to come cross country and play an early game which is traditionally difficult and the are facing a Bills teams that’s coming off a bye week and getting Trent Edwards back from injury. I like that edge and I think Lee Evans could have a big game against Cromartie. Lynch will have to have one of his better games this week though.

Bills, Over

Pittsburgh 10 CINCINNATI 37
I can’t fathom how Marvin Lewis still has a job. This team is in a shambles and it has been teetering on the brink for a long time. Pittsburgh is another team just off it’s bye and it came at a very good time when the team was very banged up. You can expect them to come into this game looking sharper than they have in a while. I’d feel a lot better about the Steelers covering 10 on the road if they had Parker back but Moore has been adequate and with the 2 weeks of reps with the first team they shouldn’t have any trouble in this one. I hope Big Ben has a big week for the sake of my fantasy team.

Steelers, Over

MIAMI 2½ Baltimore 36
This will be a very interesting game, I’m eager to see what the quirky Dolphins Wildcat offense does against the resurgent Ravens D. The Ravens offense has taken a few steps back as it appears teams have figured out Flacco a bit, though it probably has more to do with the injuries at RB. The Dolphins are going to be fired up as Harbaugh provided a little bulletin board material.

Dolphins, Under

Dallas 7 ST LOUIS 44
Dallas is just racked with injuries and a lot is riding on how Brad Johnson can come in and manage this game. I don’t think he has the arm to keep TO and Roy Williams v2.0 happy but if the Cowboys get serious about pounding the ball on the ground they should still win going away. That’s a big if though, Garrett and Phillips just haven’t shown much interest in establishing the run and there’s a good chance that with TO barking in their ear they’ll be trying to prove to the world that they can throw without Romo. I’m going against the overrated Cowboys without Romo until I’m proven wrong, especially on the road.

Rams, Under

CHICAGO 3½ Minnesota 38
My BEARS are an infuriating team. They’ve given away the 3 games they’ve lost this year and tried their best to give away the Philly game. The offense is doing everything that’s been asked to do and it’s getting more and more dangerous each week. Hester and Forte are both rounding into form and Orton is doing a great job at executing the offense and spreading the ball around. The question is if the defense can do it’s part. Statistically they are still solid but when you watch them you notice that they miss a ton of opportunities. QBs throw up a lot of balls that should be going back the other way and they let teams convert 3rd and longs and give away field position far too often. The tackling has been very suspect and overall the coaching has been abysmal, that’s especially apparent coming out after halftime adjustments. All this scares me since AP made a a career against us last season and even though the Vikings offense is struggling I haven’t forgotten. Still, it’s a home game and a divisional game, they have to prove themselves.

Bears, Over

CAROLINA 3 New Orleans 44½
I just don’t trust the Panthers and the Saints seem like a hard luck team so far. Neither team’s defense will stop anyone this week but I really think the Saints are getting stronger and more dangerous each week. I don’t think it’ll be a great day for Bush but Brees will carry them and the Panther running game will notbe able to keep up.

Saints, Over

N.Y. GIANTS 11 San Francisco 45½
I think the Giants were over rated and last weeks loss wasn’t too shocking but I don’t see a repeat this week from the Niners. The Brownies have a bunch of talent and the Giants D is iffy when they can’t get pressure. I don’t trust JTO to manage a game like Derek Anderson and they don’t have the WRs to make them pay. Consider the Niners are another team going cross country for an early game and it’s easy.

Giants, Over

HOUSTON 9½ Detroit 47½
I really think Houston can turn it around and be a good team, I wouldn’t even rule out a wildcard bid. They had a bad early string of games, all against good teams on the road. Detroit on the other hand is an embarrassment. The Roy Williams trade made excellent economic sense and they’ll get great returns on those draft choices but for right now it’s basically a white flag trade. The rest of the guys in the locker room will smell that and I wouldn’t expect a good effort from them until 0-16 starts looming. Blowout city.

Texans, Under

N.Y. Jets 3 OAKLAND 43
I’ll give those points everytime. Al Davis has robbed this team of any chance of success and the Tom Cable guy is a joke. The Jets are a solid team and Favre will feast on this team. I expect the Jets to get better and better each week now that all the parts have been together a while. The only way the Raiders have a chance is if Russell turns into the second coming of Warren Moon overnight.

Jets, Over

WASHINGTON 7½ Cleveland 42½
I was sold by the Browns last week. I think that was a breakout performance and that it’ll be a bellwether for that offense. The offensive line looked like one of the best in the league, which it was last season, and Derek Anderson responded given the time. That early season run for the Redskins was a mystery to me and every time I’ve seen them live they’ve looked pedestrian. I know they played great against some NFC East teams but I’m starting to think that it was indicative of the fact that that division is not nearly as good as people like to believe. Portis worries me as does a strong home field advantage but I’m going to take those points.

Browns, Over

Indianapolis 1½ GREEN BAY 47½
I have no idea what to make of these two teams, but I know the Packers are really banged up, especially on defense, and I’m thinking Peyton will take advantage. I didn’t get to watch last weeks game versus the Ravens but the Box Score makes it look like that Colts malaise is over with. Assuming this is true there’s just no way the Aaron Rodger’s bum arm and the husk of Ryan Grant will be able to keep pace, even in Lambeau.

Colts, Under

TAMPA BAY 11 Seattle 39
The Seahawks suck…alot. They are missing a ton of pieces, the greatest of which is Hasselbeck and they don’t have anyone worthwhile to replace him and no talent on offense to shoulder the burden. I don’t think the Bucs are quite for real, the Bears basically dominated them for 3 quarters, and I never trust a QB carousel. I figure it’s just a matter of time before Garcia shits the bed and gets yanked again, but I don’t see it happening this week at home. Even if it does the Bus still win by a touchdown.

Bucs, Under

Monday, Oct. 20
NEW ENGLAND 3 Denver 46
Gee, sure is great that we get to see the Pats on primetime again. The Broncos defense is a joke and I think that even Matt Cassel will be able to find Moss for a couple big plays but the Pats secondary is an even worse issue for them right now. Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler will have a field day on Deltha O’neal and don’t you think Shanahan will know exactly where he is at all times. The Broncos suspect running game needs to be watched, but the Pats defense is weak. Cutler might go for 500 yards.

Broncos, Over

OMNI Picks: Texans, Broncos, Bucs, Jets, Giants

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Sorry brother. Raiders have this one in the bag. DMAC will show up and look for us to get him the ball in the open field. Russell will play better than he did last game. Despite his poor stats (primarily due to terrible receivers dropping balls) Russell has actually not been that bad. Chad Schillens is starting for us over Ronald Curry. Bush and Fargas will get the ball more. And Asomougha (best CB in the NFL) may be playing some safety. We won’t only cover the spread, but we will win the game. You heard it here first.

Oh, and I hope aliens come down and destroy the Earth so neither the Broncos nor the Patriots win.

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2007 Weekly Predictions?

I’ll do you one better: I’ll predict the end of the season for you:

Giants beat the Pats via last second heroics by Eli Manning and Bill Belichek’s failure to understand that his O-line doesn’t rate against Strahan and Osi.

What do I win? :slight_smile:

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Managed to go only 7-6 against the spread and a terrible 4-9 on the over/under with the Monday game left to play. I was off to a strong start before losing 4 of the 5 late games. I was a frustrating 1-3 on the OMNI picks so far with 2 loses on garbage time scores that ruined the spread. We’ll see if I stay ahead of .500 tonight.

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Well, I ended up going a disappointing 7-7 against the spread and 5-11 versus the O/U. 1-4 on my OMNI picks.

Quick Thoughts:

I have no idea what happened to the Broncos offense there. I realize Cutler was banged up and they were on the road in primetime but that passing game absolutely should have done better. It’s not a shock that New England went for 41 points though, that Denver defense is the worst in the league.

I have a inexplicable dislike for Tom Cable that’s been with me since I first saw him introduced. It’s just one of those things, so I took serious glee in him botching that last second timeout on the game tying FG. It just reinforced the perception that he’s a poser and mindlessly aped better coaches by doing something fast becoming a joke. I’m guessing Cable’s actions might end up being the last time that a competent coach uses that tactic. Finally.

8 Underdogs covered and 11 Home teams won their games outright.

Mangini coached a terrible game a Favre played like crap. The Raiders couldn’t stop the run and the Jets expensive O-Line was dominating, but the Jets kept throwing on first down. Don’t think this is a sign of any Raider resurgence, they had a ton of dumb penalties and the Jets really screwed the pooch.

Kyle Orton played great once again and the Bears offense looks very competent. They continually got good yardage on 1st down and really used the Tight Ends great. Adrian Peterson had another big day against the Bears and I’m really worried about the defense. The injury riddled secondary held it together and made enough plays to survive but they have to be very concerned. The Bears once again beat the Vikings on Special Teams and that’s becoming just as much of a trend as AP thrashing our defense.

The Saints really seemed to struggle with Colston and Shockey back on offense, you have to wonder if that messed up some of their chemistry that Brees had with guys in their absence. Losing Bush didn’t help that chemistry obviously.

London Fletcher seems like he’s been playing for 20 years. The old man looked pretty damn good this week. The Browns receivers look like they are wearing oven mitts out there. They should be embarrassed.

The Titans rushed for 336 yards. Granted it was against the Chefs, but DAMN!

Last week I thought we were starting to figure out some of these teams and after this week it seems like more questions have been raised than answer. Once again I have no idea who the playoff teams are going to be.

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Thanks for the thread Omni.

In other news, apparently the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trying to something very creative with their offense:

My God, they have the audacity to try to use 2 receivers AT THE SAME TIME. I wish them luck in this groundbreaking endeavor.

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Ouch! Teams will have to spend extra time in the week leading up to a game against the Bucs working on defending this, just like the Wildcat formation the Dolphins use.

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My god, what’s next, forward passes?

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It says “Split End”, not “Wide Receiver.” That means they’ll be starting three WRs. If they put on their thinking caps, they just might be able to invent the slot receiver.

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Sunday, Oct. 26
BALTIMORE RAVENS 6½ Oakland Raiders 35½
I think this game is a pretty close matchup. It’s pretty interesting to have brothers as the two teams defensive coordinators and you have to think that is going to work against the young, inconsistent QBs both teams employ. Both defenses are really solid against the run and give a little against the pass. They are almost mirror images on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are a lot more tested and experienced and I favor their running game ever so slightly with McGahee over the hodgepodge that is the Raiders. On paper I should probably take the points and go Raiders, but I don’t like the combo of a Raiders team coming off a win they didn’t deserve with a bad coach into a really tough home field.

Ravens, Over

San Diego Chargers 3 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 47
This is the big game in London. Total and complete nonsense. I think all the talk about how crippling it will be for both teams flying to Europe is total bullshit. Most of us have flown cross country and overseas for business and pleasure and after a good nights sleep you were fine. You were certainly fine for the few hours around noon when you play the game. Still, there just isn’t much upside to going there, the Brits just don’t want full-time NFL, so why send them one game?

Anyways, I can’t figure out what to expect from either one of these teams from week to week. The Saints look great on offense one week and then implode, the Chargers seem to play to their competition. With Reggie Bush out it’s tough to gage if the Saints will be able to do the things they want to do on offense. It hurt them last week, but with time to prepare perhaps they will be able to focus on going downfield more and running the ball between the tackles. I’m not completely sold on Rivers and the way that LT disappears on occasion is very troubling. This game is a coin flip and I wouldn’t bet money on it for any reason. Because the loss of Bush is the only tangible thing in this one I’ll go with the Chargers.

Chargers, Under

NEW YORK JETS 12½ Kansas City Chiefs 39
Man, the Jets were disappointing last week. They really should have won that game, the fact that they are a double digit favorite really speaks to how utterly embarrassing the Chiefs are. I said last week that I thought the Jets would piece it together and have a good game and against the Chiefs that still should happen. KC threw LJ on the pine so they’ll be without their only real weapon and I just can’t justify any rationale where they win this game. Still, Favre better figure out what hell he’s doing. Thomas Jones is up for another big week at least.

Jets, Under

Buffalo Bills 1½ MIAMI DOLPHINS 42
All my doubts about the Bills are gone. This is a damn good football team and I love the way that Edwards is playing and the Bills are solid in all aspects. While Miami looked like they had something going early on it seems that teams have sorted them out in the last couple weeks. Frankly after what the Bills did against the Chargers I’m surprised that this line isn’t bigger. It’s not impossible that the Wildcat and the the Dolphins running game could put a hurting on the Bills at home, but even so I think Edwards and Evans will be able to get it back.

Bills, Over

DALLAS COWBOYS 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40½
I said it last week and I’ll say it again, I’m going against the Cowboys without Romo until I have been given a reason otherwise. Their stinkbomb last week only serves to reinforce that. The Bucs haven’t filled me with confidence, the entire NFC South baffles me from a prognosticating perspective. With all the injuries the Cowboys have that’s moot though.

Cowboys, Over

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 8½ Atlanta Falcons 45½
That’s just too many points. The Eagles are a solid team but so are the Falcons, and the Falcons are too good and too well tested at this point to think they will fold on the road against a inconsistent Eagles team. With Westbrook the Eagles would be favored, but I’m not comfortable giving 2 scores. The burden will be on the Falcons O-Line to mitigate the Eagles blitzing but Ryan has only been sacked 2 times in the last 4 games so I wager that they will be up to the challenge.

Falcons, Under

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7½ ST Louis Rams 43½
Some drama surrounding Brady’s surgeries, and the Pats organization handles in their typically tacky and tasteless fashion. Nice work Belichick, if you’re lucky perhaps Brady will be demanding a trade or a new contract when he comes back out of spite. The Pats looked awfully solid against the Broncos but it’s tough to know how important that was when you consider how utterly miserable the Broncos defense is. The Rams are resurgent under Haslett especially on defense and they are in for a serious test this week against the Pats on the road. I’m inclined to think that the Pats will come back to earth after the short week, but they are at home and the Rams won’t be able to count on that many turnovers from Cassel. I have no idea on this one, I’m just going to play it safe and take the home team.

Pats, Over

CAROLINA PANTHERS 4½ Arizona Cardinals 44
Another frigging NFC South team that I can’t figure out. I really like the Cards and I think that Larry Fitz is the best WR going right now but Warner will be throwing into one of the best secondaries in the league. The Cards running game still hasn’t become reliable enough to force the DBs to hug the line and that’s going to slow the passing game and allow double coverages. The Panthers also haven’t run the ball as well as they would like and the Cards run defense has been a real strength. I like that the Cards are coming in off of a bye week but the difference in this game will be how many times the Panthers are able to get to Warner in the backfield. If they take him down 3 or 4 times and hurry him they’ll win the game, if he can stand back there unmolested the Cards will run away. I think Peppers will get it done.

Panthers, Over

Washington Redskins 7½ DETROIT LIONS 43½
The Lions suck and their home fans are about ready to turn on this team and staff. Portis is going to have a monster day, glad he’s on my fantasy team this week.

Redskins, Under

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 6½ Cleveland Browns 41½
I give up on the Browns. This team is just a mess and their coaching is a joke. This Kellen Winslow situation should be an embarrassment for the team. Suspending him or talking to the media is a new low. I wonder if they are taking notes on player relations from the Pats. I think there’s going to be some resentment and I don’t think the Brownies will be able to keep their intensity level up and they give up way too many yards on the ground. The Jags love to run and when they are successful they win, nuff said.

Jags, Over

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2½ New York Giants 42½
Some talk that Willie Parker will be back for this one and that could be huge for the Steelers, but I still like the way they are playing on offense with Moore getting the ball. The Giants rely on the run to get everything started and they will be going against the leagues 2nd best run defense. I think that the Steelers defense will come out on top of that match-up. The Giants also rely on getting to the QB with their front 4 and that was a problem against the Browns. The Steelers line isn’t dominant but they won’t give away the game the way the 49ers did. Either way, Big Ben’s poise and size will handle that pressure well enough to not collapse. I really don’t like what s going on with Plax on the Giants lately and it seems to be really undermining what was a very efficient offense.

Steelers, Over

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 5 Seattle Seahawks 41½
The Seahawks have no offense to speak of outside of Julius Jones and he’ll be going into a decent Niners LB crew. Having Singletary at HC should provide a shot in the arm for this team and their defense will probably respond to the call. There’s no doubt that Iron Mike will be expecting a lot from the defense. The only risk is that Martz and JTO will turn the ball over and give this game away, but I think Singletary will insist on a more conservative gameplan against a beat up and struggling team like the 'Hawks.

Niners, Under

HOUSTON TEXANS 10 Cincinnati Bengals 44½
Let me sum things up in two sentences. On ESPN’s match-up page Cedric Benson is already their second leading rusher. He’s their new starter and this is being promoted as a good thing.

No Sunday Night Game this week due to the World Series.

Texans, Under

Monday, Oct. 27
TENNESSEE TITANS 3½ Indianapolis Colts 41½
Me and everyone else keeps saying that the Colts are going to pull it together. That Peyton and the Colts are just working into rhythm. The dominating victory over the Ravens supported this argument. Let me say this: Colts, you are dead to me! Addai is killing my fantasy team and I’m sick of giving you credit for the last 2 seasons. There is no reason they should be essentially a coin flip against the Titans at home. Screw you Peyton, I’m taking Kerry Collins against you in primetime.

Titans, Under
OMNI Picks to come later this weekend.

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OMNI picks: Jets, Redskins, Titans, 49ers, Texans

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Please Bengals, win a game. I don’t want the first overall pick in the draft! This is your chance, your weakest opponent all season!

No top-ranked defense like the Ravens, Steelers, Titans, or Giants!

No offensive firepower like the Cowboys!

Just win, baby!

Please for the love of all that is holy…

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I boldy predict the Packers will have the same W/L percentage after this week

Brian
(bye week)

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You’re a 10 point dog to a 2 win team…nice. I don;t have an idea of who the #1 overall pick is going to be, but I think you guys will be getting him. Though, the Chiefs and Lions are serious contenders.

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My prediction this week: Joe Flacco’s face is going to be caved in, leaving the imprint of Shaun Rogers’ gargantuan nutsack.

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They’re actually going to start Quinn. Huh.

I was convinced at this point it wasn’t going to happen. There’ve been so many prime moments where it was entirely clear Anderson wasn’t on his game and it was time to give Quinn a try (especially in the Washington team where everyone on the team was playing very well except Anderson and Edwards).

I thought at this point Romeo was avoiding starting Quinn because what happens if Quinn looks really good out there? Then Romeo looks like a moron for not starting him up till now and potentially throwing our season away on being a stubborn ass. That’s his primary motivator - trying to avoid criticism and looking dumb. Unfortunately for him, he’s bad at it and quite often looks to have all-star dumbness. (Edit: For that reason I suspect that this was a decision forced by management/ownership.)

Gotta be rough having 3 days to prepare for your first start.

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I don’t know that the prep time is that big a deal breaker. Quinn has been in that huddle for a long time now.

Seems to me that there should and will be 2 new head coaches in Ohio come January.

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Yeah, just ask Ryan Fitzpatrick…it’s been a rough 3 weeks getting ready to even compete for the chance to win!

And FTR, I don’t see how Quinn could be any worse than Anderson…might as well get him into the picture now and get his struggles out of the way. If in fact that is what happens (ie, he becomes a “franchise QB”).

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The Brownies should have traded Anderson when he had some value, instead they now have two QBs with mutiyear contracts.

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Hopefully. The Denver D is a good place to start against. But there’s just not that much time for first team reps.

I’ve thought that for at least 2.5 years now, and perplexingly it hasn’t happened yet.

Neither contract is really crippling. Anderson has a 5m roster bonus next year so trading or releasing him isn’t a crippling salary cap hit. Quinn has to hit (IIRC) 70% of the team’s snaps to get significant money.

From rotoworld:

What a mess. Why did DeAngelo Hall end up sucking so badly there anyway?
Something odd happened this week with Crennel. He said “We’re going to beat Denver and move forward.” The actual Crennel-speak for that sentiment is “Uh… we’re going to try to play better, maybe the ball bounces our way once or twice and we have a shot at beating Denver”, so such a concise and confident statement is strange. I hope they secretly replaced him with a robot.