2007 NFL Draft - Saturday, April 28th Noon CDT ...You are on the clock

In My Humble Opinion
41

So I wasn’t able to sleep last night, and by the middle of the first round I was pretty depressed and tired, and went to sleep.

Wow.

No trades happened in the top 10 as a lot of people thought, but it seems like every damn pick between the middle of the first and middle of the second was a trade.

I was expecting the Thomas pick, but did not like it at all. Mostly for reasons I already covered. Not only that, but the Browns line’s weakness has been guard for years - we’ve had adequate tackle play for a long time. Our o-line would’ve been more upgraded by taking Peterson or Quinn at #3 and Blalock in round 2 (it hurts me to see he’d have been available there) than by drafting Thomas. So even if your #1 goal was improving O-line performance, drafting Thomas was not the best way to go about that.

I felt sad when I was watching ESPN and saw Quinn at 4 years old wearing his Kosar jersey. Originally I thought his talk of “I’d love to play for Cleveland” was just talk for “I’d love to be drafted #3 overall”, but I’m thinking that maybe he really does want to be here.

How did Quinn look on the interview when it was announced that Cleveland traded up for him?

That, by the way, may have saved this draft. The price was high but not unreasonable (2nd, and next year’s first, which ideally won’t be too far off from the #22 slot we traded for) but if we had gone into the season with Charlie Frye as the starter, even with our new offensive line, we’d have seen tons of sacks and no running game - because Charlie Frye can’t make all the throws and can’t make good, fast decisions.

The defense knows they can just send the house at Frye every play, and he’s not going to punish you for it. No O-line can look good under those conditions. Many, many times I saw Frye creating his own sacks last year, and then the fans would say “the o-line is getting him killed!”. Nothing in football is a one way street. A bad O-line can make a good QB look bad, but a bad QB can make a good O-line look bad too.

That said, Quinn will most likely do more to improve the appearance of our O-line play than Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach will.

I wasn’t high on him at #3, but we desperately needed a QB, and it’s hard to argue with getting two top-5 rated talents. I just wish it was Peterson and Quinn instead. When I heard “The Minnesota Vikings select running back Adrian Peterson” I felt a little ill.

This is going to be like taking Gerrard Warren (a “solid” lineman) over LT (an elite RB talent) all over again.

42

2 rounds in the books, time for a little review.
**
Cleveland Browns Draft Picks**
Rd 1 - #3(3) Joe Thomas (OT) Wisconsin
Rd 1 - #22(22) Brady Quinn (QB) Notre Dame
Rd 2 - #21(53) Eric Wright (CB) UNLV

I really like what the Browns did. They were smart to take Joe Thomas and avoid the temptation to take Quinn at #3 and then still getting him later was their reward. Time will tell if giving up next years 1st rounder will be too much, but for right now this looks like a real victory. Wright is a first round talent with character issues, and for that reason I think he’s a steal. Pacman Jones has been a total head case but from a football standpoint he’s been awesome. Wright might be the same guy, and if he manages to not get suspended for a season or thrown in jail he will help this team immensely.
Early Grade: A-

Detroit Lions Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #2(2) Calvin Johnson (WR) Ga Tech
Rd 2 - #11(43) Drew Stanton (QB) Mich St
Rd 2 - #26(58) Ikaika Alma-Francis (DE) Hawaii
Rd 2 - #29(61) Gerald Alexander (S) Boise St

They had a lot of picks and they did well with them. They smartly took CJ and didn’t panic. Stanton feels like a good choice and Martz might be able to turn him into a star. He has 2 elite targets and a solid system, so he should have every opportunity. It’s curious that they felt the need to trade up to get the two defenders. Alma-Francis is a project and Alexander is a bit of a tweener, but at this point in the draft you need guys who can contribute. Both will have to play soon. Additionally they traded away Mike Williams and McCown which was probably the right move. They only got a high 4th rounder which seems a little weak for a couple young players who might still be successful. I like the move for the Raiders too.
Early Grade: B

Arizona Cardinals Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #5(5) Levi Brown (OT) Penn State
Rd 2 - #1(33) Alan Branch (DT) Michigan
Rd 3 - #5(69) Buster Davis (ILB) Florida St

This is the best draft of the day so far I think. Other teams were more active and added picks or moved around, but the Cardinals played it straight and it worked great for them. Levi Brown should be a immediate impact player and with this offense a anchor at LT will be key. People have said he’s on par with Joe Thomas and if that’s true, they got a nice value. Branch was a steal and they were smart to move up when they did. He wouldn’t have slid to them at 38 for sure. Might have hurt the Bears which sucks. I like Davis a ton too, he’s a productive guy who will make tackles. He won’t be a pro-bowler, but he will help this defense.
Early Grade: A

Chicago Bears Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #31(31) Greg Olsen (TE) Miami
Rd 2 - #30(62) Dan Bazuin (DE) C Michigan

Meh. I love Olsen, he might be the steal of the first round, but I feel like they made a tactical error by passing on Branch there. Trading out of the 37th pick was the right choice, but I think they could have gotten two immediate starters had they taken Branch at #31 and hoped for Olsen or traded up to ensure they landed him. This Bazuin cat had better be something special because he seems like neither the BPA or a need pick.
Early Grade: C

San Diego Chargers Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #30(30) Craig Davis (WR) LSU
Rd 2 - #5(37) Eric Weddle (S) Utah

This one looks like an unmitigated disaster. I think there were better WRs available at that spot than Davis, especially since they lack a big tall redzone threat besides Gates. They got taken behind the woodshed on that Weddle trade, no idea why the felt the need to go up and get him there. He will be a player I guess, but was he in that much demand in the middle of the second round?
Early Grade: D

San Francisco 49ers Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #11(11) Patrick Willis (ILB) Ole Miss
Rd 1 - #28(28) Joe Staley (OT) C Michigan
Rd 3 - #12(76) Jason Hill (WR) Wash St

I like what they’ve done. The video I’ve seen of Willis doesn’t support the buzz around him, but I’m willing to give the experts the benefit of the doubt and presume that he’s a great value at this spot. Many people thought he’d go in the top 10. Staley is a stud and they did the right thing to go up and get him. Again, that first rounder they gave up for next year had better not be in the top 10 though. Alex Smith and Frank Gore will appreciate the move this season. Hill is another WR that I really like and he’s got tons of speed. Hopefully he’ll stretch defenses for the Niners.
Early Grade: B

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #4(4) Gaines Adams (DE) Clemson
Rd 2 - #3(35) Arron Sears (OG) Tennessee
Rd 2 - #32(64) Sabby Piscitelli (S) Oregon St
Rd 3 - #4(68) Quincy Black (OLB) New Mexico

This is a very good draft. TB was enamored with some of the elite offensive players available but they played it safe and went with the defense. I think Adams is a bit of a stretch at #4 overall, but he’s a great fit there. Sears in a horse and they need a guy like that to support Cadillac and protect Sims. The once great TB defense needed a shot in the arm and these guys are all solid values. Plus saying Sabby Piscitelli all season long is just a bonus.
Early Grade: B

Dallas Cowboys Draft Picks
Rd 1 - #26(26) Anthony Spencer (DE) Purdue
Rd 3 - #3(67) James Marten (OT) BC

These players are going to be good, but the reason I love what Jerry did was that he totally screwed the Eagles. Spencer was a great get at that position and it led to the Eagles making the dumbest pick of the draft by taking Kolb. Marten fills a need and can play multiple positions on the line, one of the Cowboys biggest weaknesses. They might have given away a little bit too much to move up, but they got a lot from Cleveland so perhaps the net was pretty good.
Early Grade: B

43

Shockingly it looks like Pittman might still be there for the Bears at the end of the third round! The Eagles might want him to pair with Westbrook, but the rest of the teams coming up all have taken a RB this year or last year. Fingers crossed.

44

I really really hope Bush falls to the Steelers in 4. I really like both the 1st and 2nd round pick, but taking Spaeth in the 3rd is a head scratcher.

I also would like to see them take Walter Thomas (DT) in the 5th. He has gotten NO press for some reason, despite the fact that he is an absolute freak of nature. He went to Oklahoma State, couldn’t make grades, sat out a year, went to a small college in Mississippi, again had trouble with grades, and only played 2 games. In those 2 games, he had 13 tackles, (9 for a loss), 4 sacks, and 5 QB pressures. I read some interviews where he admitted he has trouble in school, but he knows he is out of chances after this next training camp.

His stats: 6’5"
380! LBS
4.9 in the 40
He benches 475 and squats 800. And, for scouts at Mississippis State’s pro day, he showed off by doing front and back flips, cartwheels, and handstands.

I read a scouting report that said,“once he gains leverage on a blocker, he never relinquishes it”…gee, ya think?

Draft him and let him sit behind Hampton for 2 years and learn, then if Tomlin wants to play a 4-3 let this monster sit in there with Hampton.

45

He has had repeated worth ethic type issues. He’s failing out of school wherever he goes. He can’t manage to stay on a football team despite amazing talent. After declaring he wanted a fresh start he showed up a day late to an interview.

I’d take a 6th round flier on the guy, but he’s about a 90% bust chance.

46

Does anyone have a ballpark guess on how much money being picked at 22 by Cleveland cost Brady Quinn, as opposed to if he’d have been taken by them with the 3rd pick as many expected?

47

My guess, something like a 50m contract down to a 17m one or so.

48

Looks like it’s much more severe. It’s closer to 60 vs 10.

I almost feel bad for him, until I think about the fact that he’s about to get 8 million dollars playing football.

In any case, he’ll get plenty of endorsement bucks as the media darling new face of the franchise in the most hardcore football market.

The difference in pay between the top picks and the rest of the draft is so ridiculously high that I never want to draft before #10 again. In a way, the teams that are worst, and hence, are supposed to be most rewarded with a high draft pick, are handicapped by having players with a high chance of busting tying up significant parts of their cap room. Having a top 5 pick is as much a handicap as a benefit, depending on whether your pick lives up to his status or not. Later in the round, you can still get a good player, but you’re not going into cap hell.

I’m happy, by the way, overall. I expect the Browns to draft somewhere around 15th next year, so we’re giving the 15th pick in '08 and 34th pick in '07 for the 22nd pick in '07. Not really a bad deal, considering GMs consider picks now to be worth far more than picks later. More importantly, we’re probably not going to get a QB of the caliber of Brady Quinn at 15 in 2008, and this way we get him a year earlier.

I certainly hope I’m wrong about Thomas. If I am, and he turns out to be, say, just a bit worse than Walter Jones (I’d be very happy if that were the case), and he’ll be working beside a really good guard, and Bentley comes back, we’ll have gone from below average line to dominating.

Bentley, by the way, has a good chance of becoming my favorite Brown ever, despite never taking a snap for us.

He signed with us despite good offers from better teams because it was his life dream to put on the orange and brown. He was ecstatic to finally be a member of the Browns.

On the very first play of a training camp scrimmage, without receiving any contact, a player who has never been seriously injured before in his life suddenly tore his petallar tendon, a rare injury, apparently by stepping on a blade of grass. This surprised no Browns fan, as these types of things almost always happen to our good/high profile players. In fact, our 2005 star free agent, Gary Baxter, tore BOTH of his petellar tendons on one play during this season. A rare injury that you almost never hear about, and yet, 3 of them happened, both to the highly paid star free agents of two consecutive years.

But when he was going down, and realizing his dreams might be falling apart, he actually let out a movie-cliche “noooooo” and was really distraught. It pained him for the rest of the year watching the Browns suck it up and not have him be on the field to help.

After the surgery to repair his tendon, he got an extensive staph infection in his knee that required a long while of hospitalization. He lost 50 pounds and suffered serious physical problems. The injury and surgery weakened knee tissue was damaged further by the infection. They were worried about him ever being able walk normally again, let alone come back and play football. Rumors were that he was gone for '07 at least, and probably for good.

But he worked his ass off more than you could reasonably expect out of everyone. He spent hours and hours every day in rehab, determined to come back faster than anyone expected. A year ago, they wondered if he’d need more surgeries and ever fully recover, and as of a month ago, he was pulling sleds. He himself says that he expects to be available this year, but it’s still up in the air. They say he might need another surgery. He might even be pushing himself too hard to come back.

But in an era where most of the players half-ass their time on this team for a paycheck, he understands the history and knows what an honor it is to wear the colors, and gives it everything he has. Despite never having taken a snap for us, he’s our best player.

49

The top-10 pay problems could be easily solved. Just put a max amount that any rookie can be paid, including bonuses. Say $3 million a year for three years with a $1 million bonus. With the rapidly-expanding cap, that’s a decent amount of pay for a guy who’s yet to play a snap while keeping teams in a comfortable position when it comes to cap room.

50

ESPN is reporting that Randy Moss has been traded to the New England Patriots for a fourth round draft pick. I’d say that might be the biggest development of the day. I mean, character-schmaracter, Tom Brady must be throwing the biggest party on the east coast this afternoon.

51

Barry Sanders worked out for the LIons a few years ago.

52

well crap…Bush is gone, but I’m really happy with Sepulvulda. I hope we didnt give up much to move up and grab him.

I would actually be completely ecstatic if we had taken Bush instead of Spaeth in the 3rd…that pick still makes no damn sense. We have a very promising young pass catching TE in Heath Miller. I guess it is nice to have a 6’7" target in the end zone, but we have bigger needs than that.

53

Going back to those third round picks for the Bears they did go with a speedy RB to pair with Benson in Garrett Wolfe. I love the way he played in college at NIU but I don’t know that I like him over Antonio Pittman. Pittman is a little bigger and a little faster. Wolfe has more wiggle and is a better receiver and could be similar to a Warrick Dunn if used right, but Pittman is stronger and a better blocker. I’m willing to trust that the Bears have a plan and that Wolfe is a better fit for how they intend to use him, but as with most of the picks they’ve made over the last couple years I think they reached to take him too early. I wager he’d have been there in the following round.

Incidentally the Saints taking Pittman is really peculiar. I’m sure he was the top player on their board and they saw him as a steal at that spot, but where’s he going to play with Deuce and Reggie?

In other news, I like what the Bears did adding depth on the O-line. We’re going to have to replace some of those older expensive guys in a couple years and Beekman should be a quality guy in a couple years. Brant is an unknown quantity but the Bears scouting has a good track record with small school guys. At the very least he has prototypical size.

For like the umpteenth year in a row the Bears have drafted a glut of DBs and this crop is comprised of some small school, unknown guys. History has shown that the Bears know what they are doing with these guys.

Between Bazuin and Okwo I hope we have found a future anchor at LB and both guys play with intensity and speed that should fit well with what the Bears like to do. I’ve got my fingers crossed. I like the positions the Bears drafted throughout I just hope that I’m wrong in my sense that most of those mid-round choices were a reach.

54

I thought the same thing when I heard the Saints picked up Pittman. Deuce McAllister has been hurt before in his career (at Ole Miss too, I believe) so that’s more insurance than anything. That’s about the only reason I can think of. Then again, if Deuce gets hurt, do you think they’d really make Reggie Bush split carries?

I think I would, but then again, I have some weird spider sense going on that Reggie Bush is a little more brittle than we know. Most of that is on account of his not really being hit hard before (minus that nasty lick he took in the playoffs last year).

55

Thats just horrible!

Should we start a collection?

Let’s throw in a free membership to the SDMB as well.

56

Yes, and not only because of the risk of injury.

Bush is best used in the hybrid role he currently occupies, moving from the backfeild to the end to the slot, going in motion, returning kicks, etc. A huge part of their offense last year was created by the way he drew attention all over. If he’s in the backfield every play, there’s nobody that can take his place.

If McAllister goes down, Pittman takes his role and Bush can keep doing what he does.

57

I’ll give my thoughts on the Packer’s draft:

I vacillate between extreme frustration and cheery hopefulness. Unlike prior TT (our GM) drafts, this one is huge on risk, and filled with many projects. I would not be surprised if the Packers do not get one starter out of this crew. However, there is some great potential, and some of these guys just might become special players. Needless to say, I’m mightly confused.

1 16 Harrell, Justin DT 6-4 305 Tennessee

Is he an injured, unpolished fat guy, or an explosive run stuffer who can start for a decade? He missed most of this year due to a torn bicep, and has lost time to ankle injuries earlier in his career. He needs some work on his technique, but has nice explosiveness and can make some tackles for loss. I think he was a reach here, and not a particular need for the Packers. I have high hopes, and he has potential, but his injury history, lack of playing time, and imperfect technique gives me pause. I would have preferred Leon Hall here.

2 63 Jackson, Brandon RB 5-10 210 Nebraska

Much like Harrell. Is he an injured, part time fill-in guy, or a big play threat with good hands and low mileage? He’s injured both shoulders, and was only a starter for half a year, so there’s no proven track record. But he did pile up some nice stats in the games he did play in. I think he’s an excellent fit for the zone blocking system the Packers are using and he’ll be a good dump off option on pass plays. But, like Harrell, he’s all potential, and could go either way.

3 78 Jones, James WR 6-1 207 San Jose State

Wasted pick. I really wanted Daymeion Hughes with this pick, and instead we get an average possession receiver who has only one good year. He’s got nice height, good strength, and is more quick than fast though. He doesn’t run the crispest routes, and should never have been a third round pick.

3 89 Rouse, Aaron SS 6-4 225 Virginia Tech

I’m actually happy with this pick. He’s a big guy, with good coverage skills and a hard hitter. There are questions about his speed and abilities to cover deep, but he is quick, and has good hands. He’ll be great help against the run, and has great measureables. I think his play will soon match those measurables in a year or two.

4 119 Barbre, Allen OT 6-4 300 Missouri Southern State

Another small school tweener project who is a good athlete, but isn’t all that bright. As if we didn’t have enough of those already. He started, and played very well, at left tackle, but did so against weaker competition. His athletism may allow him to develop, but big questions surround his brains and technique. I can’t see him starting anytime soon.

5 157 Clowney, David WR 6-0 184 Virginia Tech

I like this pick. Although his production has been less than stellar, he has great speed, OK hands, and good work ethic. He really needs to gain strength and learn to beat the press if he’s going to do anything in the NFL. Still, I think he could develop into a good deep threat from the slot, and the 5th round was good value.

6 191 Hall, Korey ILB 6-0 232 Boise State

Special teams sparkplug who may stick around for a few years, but will never be a starter except for special teams. Stupid pick in the 6th round, because we could have gotten him as a UDFA, and we passed on David Irons and Ben Patrick which would have helped fill two holes.

6 192 Bishop, Desmond ILB 6-2 239 California

See Korey Hall. He won’t ever start, but could be a special teams player. A very productive college player who doesn’t have the speed, cover skills, or experience to make it in the NFL. At best, he’ll be a run stopping situational player. Another wasted pick.

6 193 Crosby, Mason K 6-1 214 Colorado

Strong legged kicker who needs work. Will challenge Rayner, and could be a nice addition.

7 228 Wynn, DeShawn RB 5-10 238 Florida

Great potential, but never lived up to it. Well worth the 228th pick. He’s got injury, attitude, and toughness issues and is a complete reclamation project. If the Packers can turn on his switch (after all others have failed) he could be special. Odds are against it though.

7 243 Harris, Clark TE 6-5 261 Rutgers

A warm body who may be able to get a few first downs, but will not be anything special.

There is a ton of potential in this draft, but there are serious issues too. Last year, the Packers took solid guys and ended up with a few starters. This year, it looks like they are more willing to take a lot of chances. There is a lot of upside, and I really hope some of these guys develop. But it will still be a few years until we know for sure.

58

One thing I forgot to mention. Word is that the Packers are going to try and change Korey Hall into a fullback. Big whoop.

59

Hamlet, you’re a hell of a lot more optimistic about that Packer draft than I am. It’s a bit of a relief because the Lions and Vikings both added some players who scare the crap out of me as a Bears fan. I take solace in the Packers screwing the pooch.

I agree with your analysis but don’t see the upside you do. He’s had the types of chronic injuries that would scare the crap out of me. A huge 300+ lb interior lineman with ankle and foot problems? Ouch. The strain on those puppies will only get worse against pro lines. They would have been better served drafting Alan Branch. I think they were smart to get a big interior guy to eat up blockers for Hawk and compete in the run-first NFC North, but they took the wrong one. They should have considered trading back from this spot instead of that second round pick if they really wanted to add picks.

And this is why trading back in the second round is a bad idea, they got stuck with what looks like a panic pick. They absolutely needed to find an impact RB and had they kept their second rounder they’d have had him in Kenny Irons. Instead they are settling for a average, injury prone guy who didn’t exactly dominate against weak Big 12 competition. I wonder if the Ahman Green/Nebraska thing got in their head at all. Even Pittman looks better on paper than Jackson. If you’re going to roll the dice with a guy who had injuries issues at RB you should have gone with the huge upside guy in Michael Bush.

These were a pair of awful picks. They addressed needs, but did it with poor values when better options were out there.

Here’s to hoping the QB situations in Detroit and Minnesota are screwed up long enough so that Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson’s rookie contracts expire first and they bolt for greener pastures.

60

I’m always optismistic… until the fourth quarter. The draft is so hard to rate, and the players so unknown, that how you look at it comes down, a lot of the time, to your general outlook of your team. I happen to think we have a a solid, young team badly in need of playmakers. Maybe some of these guys will be.

I think, if he’s healthy, it is a fine pick. He will be a big help in stopping the run, freeing up the linebackers, and he’s got a great motor and attitude. He put off surgery just so he could play in the Florida game this year. The issue is injuries, and I hope for the best.

Two things. First, as much as I am leery of Harrell, I’m happier we didn’t get Branch. Branch is a big, lazy, fat guy, with a poor attitude and little quickness. He may be a fine pick in the second round, but I can’t see him as anything more than a guy taking up space. In Harrell, I see an actual football player. Second, Denver moved up after our pick because we took one of their guys. Shanny had wanted Harrell or Moss, and, after we took Harrell, Denver moved up to get Moss. Harrell wouldn’t have made it past Denver.

To be honest, Jackson wasn’t on my radar, so I don’t know much about him. But he has a 5.3 ypc average, and a nice highlight reel (who doesn’t have a nice highlight reel). Irons didn’t impress me, and I would have preferred Pittman. I guess I trust the Packers.

I wouldn’t say awful, I would say they were very high risk. Branch wasn’t a “better option”, and, while I think they were reaches, I have enough faith in TT to let it play out.

Think of Brandon Jackson as Adrian Peterson. Injury risks with 5.3/5.4 ypc against “weak” competition in the Big 12. Jackson caught more balls though.