Warning … Cite from a source not approved by the liberal wing of the SDMB
I’m sure you’ve debunked all of these in the past but just remind me of a few please.
The NC numbers are eye-opening. Hagen (D), with virtually no name recognition, is running against local favorite Elizabeth Dole ® and polling within the margin of error, even though Blacks have been undercounted (24% of voters are black, but only 20% of those polled were black) and only 4% of all voters are undecided.
There’s not one thing in that article that demonstrates any bias in the media. That article makes a case that most journalists lean left in varying degrees, but does not even remotely attempt to make the case that it impacts their reporting…
There’s a shutoff valve. Just behind the ear.
What the … !!! and Everyone arguing with him about the “divided government” or the “liberal media,” those topics are interesting, but they are absolutely irrelevant to a discussion regarding which senate seats will be held, (won or lost), by which party in the upcoming election.
Open a new thread or drop the subjects, but please,everyone, knock off the hijacks.
[ /Modding ]
Polling data is likely to mislead at this point, unless interpreted carefully.
The go-to website for horserace info at the Senate, House and Gubernatorial levels, is D.C.'s Political Report. Click a state here.
Stars indicate how entertaining each race is expected to be. Even better, D.C. lists how the major political consultants view the race. Polling data is available for a fee.
Let’s take a look at the Senate race in Virginia: D.C. thinks it will have maximum excitement:
Muckrakers will be following the Alaska races closely. Will this Republican state return the corrupt earmarking Representative Don Young and the corrupt Senator Ted Stevens to power?
Senator Stevens (R) is favored for re-election, despite probes from the Investigator General of the Department of the Interior and possible bribery by Veco executives. Then again, he pulled down a cool $88 million in earmarks for the state, so he can’t be all bad.
In the House, Don Young (R) might be toppled.
It looks like a real nail biter!
Great. I just realized that I slipped in a hijack when I listed info on Alaska’s At Large Congressional Rep. This is a Senate Race thread, MfM! :smack:
See you and raise you.
That sure worked wonders for them in MS and LA!
-Joe
From The Hill:
Early polls suggest Dems can increase Senate majority
60 sounds nice.
If I had a farm, I’d bet that Jim Inhofe (R-OK) will be reelected. His competitor (Andrew Rice) has zero name recognition outside of central Oklahoma City that he represents in the Oklahoma State Senate. That’s too bad too because he seems like a genuinely good guy and I believe that we could use more people like him in the Senate.
Even though I’m pretty conservative, I can’t stand Jim Inhofe. I had a few occasions to talk to him when he was Mayor of Tulsa and I worked in a pawnshop. He had a thing for nice guns. He seemed quite arrogant and fairly stupid. That’s a double whammy for a Senator.
As has been pointed out before, I think, there is a thread which specifically addresses the question of whether people vote to achieve a divided government and if that will effect how they vote come November(Senate, House, or Presidential election). True, its gone off page, but hey, it’s not like it would be a zombie thread if anyone wanted to bump it up with a new idea.
Maybe it’s just me, but I found that site extremely hard to read. Nor could I find the commentary you quoted at the links you provided. (Of course, that could’ve been because the linked pages were difficult for me to read. :))
Here’s some other references: I’ve already mentioned pollster.com as my polling source.
There’s also the (PDF) Cook Report’s Senate race ratings, and CQ’s Senate race ratings. Both CQ and Charlie Cook have been around awhile, and are respected. (I still like my own ratings better than either of theirs. :p)
One new poll of interest: Rasmussen has Musgrove (D) leading Wicker (R), 47-46, for the race to finish the rest of Trent Lott’s term. (IOW, essentially tied.) Just another data point saying this is anybody’s ballgame.
90-year-old Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) was just hospitalized with a fever, for the third time in as many months. Another open seat, perhaps? Even if his life is not in danger, his capacity to serve effectively probably is; he might feel obliged to resign.
I would like to bump this thread to note a couple of items that came as the result of primaries held yesterday:
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As I predicted upthread, Steve Pearce is the Republican nominee for Senate in New Mexico.
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The primaries in New Jersey have taken place. Incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg beat Representative Rob Andrews by a wide margin in the Democratic primary, while former Representative Dick Zimmer defeated two opponents to become the Republican nominee.
Of these results, the New Mexico race holds the same status as before. In New Jersey, meanwhile, the Republicans may have their best challenger outside of Louisiana, but, given the recent history of New Jersey electorally, it probably will not be enough.
Speaking of Louisiana, a May 27 Rasmussen poll says that race is tight, showing Landrieu ahead 47-44, well within the MOE. I’d had that one as ‘likely Dem’; might belong as more of a ‘lean.’
D.C. consolidates the predictions from the political handicappers.
Step by step:
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/
Look at the left column and click “State by State Coverage”.
Click a state on the map. Let’s try Virginia.
Skip the ad.
There will be a list of all contests, along with CQ’s, Charlie Cook’s, Roll Call’s, Larry Saboto’s etc. characterization of the race. I see that Virginia’s Senate race looks exciting.
D.C. doesn’t give a very good bird’s eye view of all the races though, so it’s worth downloading the charts from Charlie Cook et al.
OK, I followed all that. I’d gotten to that page before, it’s just reading it when you get there that’s the challenge. It’s crowded, poorly organized, and is a serious eyestrain-inducer.
If that’s what they’re saying, they’re nuts. Gilmore’s such a loser, he can’t even get the Va. GOP’s bigshots (e.g. John Warner, Tom Davis) to endorse him. He’s not even going to win a lousy copy of the home game. 
Well by “Exciting” I meant “Entertaining”, which is the basis for D.C.'s 5 star scale.
I guess D.C. is best if you want to check the consensus on a particular Congressional district. They list active websites and the characterization of some of the professional electoral analysts. For example, if a primary opponent doesn’t even have a website, he probably isn’t especially serious.
Another horserace site is The Rothenberg Political Report. He predicts a 3-5 seat gain for the Dems, and he is certain of a gain of at least 1 seat.