2008 U.S. Senate Races: Speculation and Commentary Thread #1

Great Debates
61

[QUOTE=BrainGlutton]
90-year-old Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) was just hospitalized with a fever, for the third time in as many months. Another open seat, perhaps? Even if his life is not in danger, his capacity to serve effectively probably is; he might feel obliged to resign.
[/QUOTE]

According to the West Virginia Secretary of State’s office, the Governor (currently a Democrat) appoints someone to serve in the seat until the next general election. However, in an election year, if the vacancy occurs with less than six months until the election, the appointee gets to serve until the next general election after that. So if Byrd kicks it tomorrow, his replacement would not be on the ballot until 2010.

62

Speaking of old coots, what will happen to McCain’s Senate seat in Arizona if he wins the Presidential election?

63

[QUOTE=ITR champion]
Speaking of old coots, what will happen to McCain’s Senate seat in Arizona if he wins the Presidential election?
[/QUOTE]

I’ve found quite a few references saying that state law requires a member of the same party (in this case, Republican) to be appointed, but I haven’t yet found a citation that cites the precise law in question.

64

[QUOTE=Governor Quinn]
I’ve found quite a few references saying that state law requires a member of the same party (in this case, Republican) to be appointed, but I haven’t yet found a citation that cites the precise law in question.
[/QUOTE]

Here 'tis.

Illinois also allows the governor to appoint a replacement who would serve until the next general election, but does not appear to have the “same political party” bit. I may have missed it.

65

Thought I’d revise my May 27 scorecard and summarize the polls since that time:



State                   Race                              May 27      June 29
Virginia (open):        Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)        Dem         Dem
New Mexico (open):	Pearce/Wilson (R) vs. Udall (D)	  Dem         Dem
Louisiana: 		Kennedy (R) vs. Landrieu (D-i)	  Likely Dem  Likely Dem
New Hampshire: 	        Sununu (R-i) vs. Shaheen (D)	  Likely Dem  Likely Dem
Colorado (open): 	Schaeffer (R) vs. Udall (D)	  Lean Dem    Likely Dem
Alaska: 		Stevens (R-i) vs. Begich (D)	  Tossup      Tossup
Minnesota: 		Coleman (R-i) vs. Franken (D)	  Lean GOP    Likely GOP
Mississippi (special): 	Wicker (R-i) vs. Musgrove (D)	  Lean GOP    Tossup
North Carolina: 	Dole (R-i) vs. Hagan (D)	  Lean GOP    Likely GOP
Oregon: 		Smith (R-i) vs. Merkley (D)	  Lean GOP    Lean GOP
Texas: 			Cornyn (R-i) vs. Noriega (D)	  Lean GOP    GOP
Kentucky: 		McConnell (R-i) vs. Lunsford (D)  Likely GOP  Lean GOP
Maine: 			Collins (R-i) vs. Allen (D)	  Likely GOP  Likely GOP
Kansas: 	        Roberts (R) vs. Slattery (D)	  ---         GOP

In Virginia and New Mexico, the polling continues to put Warner and Udall up by 25-30 point margins. The last poll in Louisiana was by Rasmussen on May 28, which put Landrieu ahead by only 47-44. If another poll comes in at that sort of margin, it’ll go from Likely to Lean.

Both Rasmussen and ARG polled NH in mid-June and showed Shaheen up by 14. It’s very likely Dem at this point. Three different pollsters surveyed Colorado in mid-June, including Rasmussen and Quinnipiac; all three showed Udall up by 9-10 points, hence the change from Lean to Likely. Rasmussen did Alaska in mid-June; Stevens was up by 2.

Quinnipiac has Coleman up by 10 in MN in late June, confirming an earlier Survey USA poll that showed a 12-point Coleman lead; that one’s looking Likely GOP now. Rasmussen, on 6/24, had Wicker up by 1 in MS; the previous poll had Musgrove up 1. The closeness is clearly not a fluke; it’s now a Tossup.

Rasmussen had Dole up by 14 earlier this month, and another pollster had her up 10. So much for Hagan’s momentum. Very Likely GOP now. In Oregon, an early June Rasmussen has Gordon Smith up by 9, but all the May polls had him up by 3-4 points. If there’s a second poll showing Smith’s lead in the high single digits, we’ll call it Likely.

In Texas, three of the last four polls have Cornyn’s lead in the 13-17 point range, and the fourth one was “who?” I’m changing that one all the way to simply “GOP.” In KY in June, Survey USA and Rasmussen had McConnell up by 4 and 7, respectively, confirming that there really is a race here. Lean.

In Maine in June, Rasmussen said Allen trailed by 7. Still a Likely GOP. I’ve added Kansas to the list, due to the abundance of polling. But at leads of 12, 12, 9, and 17 for Roberts, we’ll list it as simply ‘GOP’ for now. I’ve dropped Nebraska, which will stay GOP. The NJ polling is so all over the place that I think I’ll chicken out for now, and see if the polling makes more sense next month.

On the whole, though, the month hasn’t been a good one for the Dem prospects. They’ve solidified their top four pickup prospects (VA, NM, CO, NH), but everywhere else, they’re either losing ground or holding steady. It’s a lot harder now than it was on May 27 to envision the Dems picking up 7 or more seats.

66

Here’s Five Thirty Eight’s Senate Polling Permathread. It’s a great resource, because it’s got all the polls for all the Senate races on one page. (Wish I’d just waited a day to update the table from my OP; I’d have saved a lot of clicking back and forth.)

I’d take the win percentages with a big bag of salt, though. Lindsey Graham’s challenger doesn’t have a 20% chance.

OTOH, Nate’s summation of the situation as “four current GOP-held seats (VA, NM, NH, CO) are exceptionally likely to go to the Democrats, two others (AK and MS-B) are more or less toss-ups (we project the Republican as a very slight favorite in both), and then there is a “long tail” of seats that the Democrats may have an outside shot at” is not that far off my own.

67

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/top_goper_admits_its_impossibl.php

And this just in…

(Warning! Lefty site! Tighty rightys advised to implement anti-cooty protocols!)

68

Two slight points to make:

  1. The scorecard needs to be corrected for the New Mexico entry, as Pearce is now the Republican nominee.

  2. The polls I’ve seen in Alaska have been presumptive of Stevens being the Republican nominee. Should he, in fact, lose his primary (and he does have a serious primary opponent), it will be interesting to see how of the closeness of the race is due to personal issues.

69

God, I wish we had a chanvce of knocking off Saxby Chambliss in GA and Jim Inhofe in OK, but it looks like the good people of their respective states actually like having them as one of their 2 US Senators. Go figure.

70

The exciting thing about the Virginia race is not the handicapping of the outcome, but the fact than in the space of only two years we’re going from two Republican senators to both Democrats. The most striking blue shift in the whole nation.

71

[QUOTE=Governor Quinn]
…2) The polls I’ve seen in Alaska have been presumptive of Stevens being the Republican nominee. Should he, in fact, lose his primary (and he does have a serious primary opponent), it will be interesting to see how of the closeness of the race is due to personal issues.
[/QUOTE]

Nomination, hell, how long can he dodge the bullet on an indictment? This is the Bridge to Nowhere guy, right? The guy who had an extra floor built on his house by a grateful and civic minded contractor? How does anybody vote for this clown, he’d embarass a *Texas *politician!

72

A lot’s happened since the last time I updated my Senate scorecard, which I really should just outsource to 538.com:



State                   Race                              June 29     Oct. 10
Virginia (open):        Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)        Dem         Dem
New Mexico (open):	Pearce/Wilson (R) vs. Udall (D)	  Dem         Dem
Louisiana: 		Kennedy (R) vs. Landrieu (D-i)	  Likely Dem  Dem
New Hampshire: 	        Sununu (R-i) vs. Shaheen (D)	  Likely Dem  Likely Dem
Colorado (open): 	Schaeffer (R) vs. Udall (D)	  Likely Dem  Likely Dem
Alaska: 		Stevens (R-i) vs. Begich (D)	  Tossup      Tossup
Minnesota: 		Coleman (R-i) vs. Franken (D)	  Likely GOP  Tossup
Mississippi (special): 	Wicker (R-i) vs. Musgrove (D)	  Tossup      Lean GOP
North Carolina: 	Dole (R-i) vs. Hagan (D)	  Likely GOP  Lean Dem
Oregon: 		Smith (R-i) vs. Merkley (D)	  Lean GOP    Lean Dem
Texas: 			Cornyn (R-i) vs. Noriega (D)	  Lean GOP    GOP
Kentucky: 		McConnell (R-i) vs. Lunsford (D)  Lean GOP    Likely GOP
Maine: 			Collins (R-i) vs. Allen (D)	  Likely GOP  Likely GOP
Georgia: 	        Chambliss (R) vs. Martin (D)	  ---         Likely GOP

Warner’s up by 25-30 points in VA; Tom Udall’s up by 15-20 in NM. Landrieu’s lead is in the mid-teens in LA. As long as none of them gets caught in a child-porn sting in the next 25 days, those races are over.

The game hasn’t changed much in CO or NH. Mark Udall seems to have a 5-8 point lead, with occasional outliers. Jeanne Shaheen seems to average a 5-6 point lead, but the polling has been more erratic: polls in the past month have shown her anywhere from +14 to -7. I’d bet on either of them to win at 2-1 odds.

Hagan seems to have taken the lead in NC: recent polling has shown her anywhere from +9 to -1. The -1 was from SurveyUSA on 10/6, so it can’t be disregarded, but overall, the polling since mid-September has been going Hagan’s way.

In Oregon, Gordon Smith had been in the lead until mid-September. Only two polls since then, both on 9/23, both showing Merkley edging into the lead: SurveyUSA has Merkley +2, and Research 2000 has him at +5. It’s a small lead, and it’s a recent lead, but it’s a lead. Lean Dem.

Polling’s been all over the place in the Twine Ball State in the past couple of weeks, from Coleman +10 to Franken +9. But Franken’s on the offensive lately - Coleman’s fine suits are bought and paid for by his wealthy backers, and he refuses to say whether he favors privatizing Social Security. I’m calling it a tossup, but I’d bet on Franken winning in the end.

In Alaska, it’s all going to hang on whether the jury convicts Ted Stevens. It’s really close right now; if they let him off, he’ll get a bounce that’ll push him past Begich. If they convict him, he’s out, and Begich beats whoever they can scrape up at the last minute.

The Musgrove-Wicker race for Trent Lott’s old seat was a tossup earlier, then Wicker opened up a noticeable lead. The only recent poll, Rasmussen on 9/30, shows it as a 2-point race, though. Still, that’s just one poll, and it’s Mississippi. Lean GOP.

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell was comfortably ahead, then two polls showed his lead down to 1 and 3 points. Latest (Rasmussen 9/30) has it at 9. Likely GOP, but I bet Mitch is sweating anyway.

Four polls in the past 2 weeks have shown Saxby Chambliss’ lead over Jim Martin in the 1-6 point range. Likely GOP because it’s Georgia, but Saxby’s got to be really sweating.

In Maine, Susan Collins is still up by at least 10. Likely GOP, and just barely this side of Safe.

In Texas, Cornyn had a lead in the mid-teens all summer, but the only September poll, Rasmussen on 9/29, had Cornyn’s lead down to 7. It’s in Texas, it’s only the one poll showing it under a 13-point race. I’d like to see more before I put it back on the board, even as Likely GOP.

On the whole, though, the Dems are in very good shape. I’d expect them to pick up 6-8 seats, and there’s an outside chance they could pick up 10.

73

I earlier declared that it was impossible for the Democrats to catch the legendary beast knows as the filibuster-proog majority. I still feel it’s unlikely, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.

74

Last night a republican pundit says he is worried about losing 10 of 12 seats. I can see it. The economy is always the issue. When you feel safe and well fed you can go to slightly more esoteric issues. Like whether Obama meeting and working with a college professor who was trying to help the down trodden is an act of treason.

75

SurveyUSA has Merkley up 46-41 in Oregon. Still a bit too close to change from Lean Dem to Likely Dem.

SUSA also has Chambliss’ lead down to 46-43 in Georgia. Alright, already - this one’s close! I’m changing it from Likely GOP to Lean GOP.

76

This is a HUGE shift. Liddy is gonna be spending 100% of her time at the Watergate come January, instead of only 99% like she currently does.

77

Saxby Chambliss is going to lose. You read it here first. The Democratic voter turnout in Georgia is going to be overwhelming, and it is going to swamp him. The pollsters are missing a lot of voters in my opinion.

An even more wild-ass prediction: Ronnie Musgrove (D) is going to win a Senate seat from Mississippi for the same reason.

78

It’s closer than I ever thought it would be. Lunsford has run a better campaign than I expected, and Mitch has made a few missteps, plus the economic mess has made a few more people realize that Mitch is the Garfield of Washington fatcats.

That said, I still don’t have my hopes up. Obama just doesn’t have any coattails to ride in KY, and Lunsford is still a lousy candidate. He’s a vote against McConnell, and that’s it, and I don’t think it’ll be enough.

79

Great line!

And I agree with your main point: I’d be really surprised to see Lunsford win this one, despite the fairly close polls. And since Obama bypassed organizing Kentucky in both the primaries and the general election (one of the few states so, erm, honored), Lunsford’s not getting much help at all from the top of the ticket, unlike Jim Martin in GA (a state that Obama never gave up on, much to my surprise).

At this point, I’d say Franken and Martin are the two Dem Senate candidates most worth tossing some bucks at, in terms of the difference it might make. Both are genuinely progressive candidates, both are in very close races where a bit more in the way of resources might put them over the top.

Warner, the Udalls, and Shaheen are all in great shape right now, and while Hagan and Merkley could also use some bucks, it’s starting to look like they’ve got the upper hand in their races. Begich’s success will be determined by the outcome of a trial, rather than by resources. And Lunsford and Tom Allen (Maine) are worth helping if you’ve got money to throw around - just a bit on the long-odds side, though.

80

Obama got a big victory and a huge turnout in the primary here. Moreover, his primary victory margin was significantly higher than what was predicted by polls.

I think Obama’s campaign sees what I see: his supporters in Georgia are highly motivated, and there is significant undercounting of his support here by pollsters.