Is Corzine’s party (D) or (GS)?
SSM now trailing by 1,600 with 28% reporting in Maine.
Biggest two surprises so far - Bloomberg is in a real fight, and Hoffman is trailing in NY-23.
The Christie win sends a bigger message nationally, I think. The Democrats pulled out the stops for Corzine. Obama went there repeatedly to boost him. He outspent Christie more than 3-1. I actually didn’t think Corzine would lose. The deck looked too stacked against Christie.
The most important fact of the night so far is that the kingmakers have been the independents. They voted for Obama in Virginia by a 15 point margin in 2008, and in a huge swing they broke 65-35 for McDonnell. If that picture of independent swinig votes holds true across the board, it should be ringing alarm bells in the White House. Independents are now the largest political bloc, and if they have moved that far to the right, the Democrats are in trouble.
nvm
I agree with you that Palin and company will be trying this next year even if it does not work in New York. I suppose moderate Republicans could push back if Hoffman loses, but I think some of them are just being pushed into the blue column instead. People keep saying moderates need to take back the GOP, but it’s not happening. They’re quitting instead.
Personally, I’m just rooting for the poetic justice angle. CNN has the race at 50-45-5 for Owens with 39% reporting. That math speaks for itself. If that holds up, the Republicans lose that seat because the nutjobs refused to sully their hands by working with a moderate.
Everybody’s now calling the NJ race for Christie. I am officially the first to report that he will be the country’s first double-named governor since Tommy Thompson.
I’m surprised how close the mayoral race has been, too, but even so, everybody’s called it for Bloomberg. I’m wondering if the polls underestimated how many people would stay home because of the term limit issue, or because everyone expected a rout.
They are also the most fluid. How many of those who self-identify as “independents” are simply Republicans in recovery? This doesn’t mean that “independents” move to the right, but that the right moved to be independent.
My best reading of it is that the Republicans alienated the independents, who quit the party. Now the Democrats are in charge, and the Independents have discovered they like them even less. The independents aren’t changing their positions - they’re trying to find a home. But both parties keep letting them down. You’re right - this makes them a very volatile group. It’s clear that neither party can take their support for granted.
The people who should not be chortling with glee tonight are the Republicans. Their approval ratings have not improved one bit. This election is more of a referendum on Democratic policies and the state of the economy in general - not an endorsement of Republicans.
Good victories for the Republicans. Good for them and for the country. Astonished that Bloomberg is in such a close race.
NBC has retracted their call. It is apparently getting even closer.
On edit: Looking at the current results, it looks to me like Bloomberg is in.
Didn’t I recently read that the incumbent Virginia governor, Tim Kaine, made the three-man short list of Obama’s VP choices last year, along with Biden and Bayh? I would have thought that’d help him.
The ballot irregularities in NY23 just fill me with joy, it’ll be like our very own Al Franken and that other guy he ran against. More of a chance for teabaggers to rest their nuts on our foreheads for the next few weeks.
Kaine isn’t running due to term limits.
His lead seems to be widening a little, but it’s only 5 points or so. But CNN has called it for Bloomberg.
He can’t run for re-election. Governors in Virginia are limited to only one term.
With 64 percent of the vote in upstate, Owens leads Hoffman 49-46.
538.Com has a great rundown and I have come to respect them as tellers of the truth…whatever it may be…as best as they can determine it (all seems a little mystical to me but they are rigorous with their math).
Anyway here’s what he is Twittering as of now:
In general I agree. I found this bit interesting though:
More from 538 Twitter feed:
D’oh! It was not mentioned on the news here the names of who was running, just that Virginia was going Republican. Thanks.
Our very local city council elections just got called - with all three of our lawn signs getting elected.
Doesn’t say much about party politics, because in my city everyone tries to get endorsed by the Democrats, if they don’t endorse you, maybe you can get the Libertarians to. But the Republican endorsement is not sought after.
Nothing like realizing how wide a net parties cast -or how opportunistic politicians are to get the right label - than looking at these positions and realizing that they all want to be endorsed by the Democrats.
It’s also clear that no one ever could, because “the independents” are not a bloc: Some are centrists, which is probably what you’re thinking of, but some are to the right of the Pubs and some to the left of the Dems.
Oh, don’t begrudge them a chortle! They need it!