2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion

The Game Room
1

The Super Bowl is over and for most of us the hangover has mostly subsided. I’m sure many of you share this empty and bleak feeling I have staring at the prospect of 6 months without football. It’s time to try and somewhat console ourselves by obsessing over the highlight of the Spring, the coming NFL Draft. The key dates for the NFL offseason are as follows.

January 28th - March 17th: NFL Regional Combines
February 20th: Players are eligible for the Franchise Tag
February 22nd - 28th: NFL Scouting Combine
March 3rd: Peyton Manning Day aka the date the Colts must decide on his $28M bonus
March 5th: NFL Free Agency Begins
March 25th-28th: NFL Owners Meetings
April 26th-28th: 2012 NFL Draft

Here’s the NFL Draft order pending a pair of coin flips set to take place at the combine in Indy.

  1. Indianapolis Colts

  2. St. Louis Rams

  3. Minnesota Vikings

  4. Cleveland Browns

  5. Tampa Bay Buccanneers

  6. Washington Redskins

  7. Jacksonville Jaguars

8/9. Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers

  1. Buffalo Bills

11/12. Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks

  1. Arizona Cardinals

  2. Dallas Cowboys

  3. Philadelphia Eagles

  4. New York Jets

  5. Cincinnati Bengals (Acquired from Oakland)

  6. San Diego Chargers

  7. Chicago Bears

  8. Tennessee Titans

  9. Cincinnati Bengals

  10. Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Atlanta)

  11. Detroit Lions

  12. Pittsburgh Steelers

  13. Denver Broncos

  14. Houston Texans

  15. New England Patriots (acquired from Saints)

  16. Green Bay Packers

  17. Baltimore Ravens

  18. San Francisco 49ers

  19. New England Patriots

  20. New York Giants

Of note, the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots have 2 picks each. The Saints, Falcons and Raiders all traded away their first rounder during last years draft or during the season. Of the 3 only the Falcons can feel anything but terrible about those decisions.

I’m still a bit pissed that the Bears cost themselves 6 or more draft spots by beating the Vikings in week 17. I’d have felt much better about their odds to find success in the first round at say 12, than at 19, the odds are disturbingly high that the WR or DE they crave will be gone before they pick at 19. And it’s not just the 1st round, the Bears 2nd round pick will be critical too and landing a starter there is almost a necessity.

Pretty much all doubt has been removed regarding the Colts #1 overall pick. It will be Andrew Luck, so I think we’ll be able to not obsess over that. There’s still a sliver of a chance that Manning comes back for a year or two while he seasons, but it’s a slim chance.

I wonder what the big trades will be in this years draft. Everyone expects movement around RGIII, but trades at the top are rare. There’s a chance the Blackmon will induce a trade should he happen to slip at all. Reiff and Adams might cause a stir since the OT position looks a little on the thin side. This also looks to be one of the weakest DL classes in recent memory, particularly on the inside, so that could merit watching.

Some guys I think will be busts based on some early projections of where they’ll be taken: Claibourne, Richardson, Kirkpatrick, Ingram, Wright, Konz, Hightower, Mercilus, Toon.

Stepping away from the Draft there’s bound to be some excitement around a few big name salary cap casualties in the coming weeks. Peyton Manning is the biggest name of the group, but he’s not the only one. The Chargers are expected to part ways with Marcus McNeill. The Jets just passed a deadline today that guaranteed Santonio Holmes contract for not only 2012 but also 2013 so he’s not going anywhere. AJ Hawk is probably gone from the Packers. The Steelers are way over the cap, so you can probably expect some pretty major cuts across that entire defense. The Raiders are in the same boat and I’m sure Reggie McKenzie will be cleaning house.

Anyone want to break down their team and give us a recipe for success?

2

Oh, joy! The offseaon!

49ers:
We went 13-3 and came very close to the Super Bowl with the personnel we have now, but there is always room for improvement, and we have plenty of pending free agents. Priorities are re-signing DBs Goldson and Rodgers, and upgrading our pathetic WR corps.

Also…
QB: We appear set, with Alex Smith about to re-sign, and a couple developmental guys in Kaepernick and Tolzien.
RB: Gore is getting old, and we could use a better short-yardage guy.
FB: We get to cut Moran Norris! There was much rejoicing.
O-line: depth is always good, and we have some guys coming up from last year’s draft.

D-line: Again, depth is good, especially because we apparently have a drinking problem in the defensive front.
LB: mostly set. If some team think our backup ILB (Grant) is a starter, we’ll need a new backup. Not sure about OLB.

I haven’t gotten to scouting yet, except I like WR Alshon Jeffery.

3

I just want to say that with the rookie wage scale, I think there will be a lot more movment at the top. Unless somebody we thought was young and “set” at quarterback just can’t pass up RGIII

4

Not really. I think the Saints got a quality player in Mark Ingram. He had some injury issues this year, and it is hard to make a huge impact on a team with 4 RBs getting playing time. Ingram will be around for a few years, and we’ll see how he performs.

This year, the Saints need a pass rushing DE, could use some help at LB, and need a tackle on offense. Lately, they have not been shy about going out and getting free agents to improve the team, so I’m somewhat optimistic. On the downside, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans next year, and there’s never been a team that played it in their own stadium…:frowning:

5

The Saints are going to lose 2 if not 3 WRs this offseason. A pair of 1st rounders would have done a great deal to soften that blow. Who would you rather have, Ingram as your 3rd or 4th RB or Kendall Wright to replace Meachem when he walks. That Ingram trade was probably even stupider than the Raiders move. “Quality” running backs are a dime a dozen. I know I’d rather have Chris Ivory on my team right now than Mark Ingram.

6

It cuts both ways. Before those high picks were so expensive that everyone wanted out and no one wanted in. Now that they are relatively cheap everyone wants in and no one wants out.

7

I don’t really see a landing spot for RGIII until the Redskins at #6, which leaves a lot of room for movement. I think the Skins, Seattle and Miami will be inching to get up to the St Louis spot, and if St Louis thinks they’re good at QB (which I think they do) they might be willing to drop back for bulk picks.

8

SenorBeef’s head just exploded.

Yeah, but St Louis doesn’t want to move back. The price in picks to persuade them to miss out on Kalil or Blackmon will be too much.

9

But then the Vikings have Ponder, the Browns have McCoy, the Bucks have Freeman. RGIII has been rated pretty high to drop all the way to 6. I bet Miami would give this years #1, a #2, and next years #1 for RGIII

10

An important point to consider is that free agency occurs before the draft, so there are going to be some QB needy teams that pick up an option before the draft begins and will no longer be in the running. I haven’t spent too much time reading mocks and draft stuff so far, but the impression I get is that it’s more likely teams take a chance on Flynn and Peyton (if available) than try to trade up. It will be interesting to see.

For the Eagles, almost everyone has them taking LB Luke Kuechly. Which, like the Juan Castillo/Steve Spagnuolo thing a little while back, is too neat and too clean to ever happen. Arizona will take him ahead of the Eagles. The Eagles don’t really have any other glaring needs and will probably end up doing something stupid, like taking a DT when that’s the deepest part of the team.

One interesting thing about the Eagles with this draft is the status of Desean Jackson. If Philly doesn’t retain him (and he’s traded or let walk), they instantly become one of the more WR-needy teams in the draft. They also are the most active team in the league in draft movement, so they’re a big wild card as far as moving up or moving down in the order.

11

But they have Jason Avant! :slight_smile:

12

RG3 isn’t getting past the Browns. In no way, shape or form does that franchise believe McCoy is the QB of the future. They could take a run at Matt Flynn but he’ll be pretty hotly contested and I think the odds are really good that he’ll pair up with his former coach in Miami. It’s possible that another experienced QB becomes available for the Browns, but there probably isn’t one good enough to make them pass on RG3.

So, for someone to trade up to get him they’ll have to go to 2 or 3. The Vikes and Rams both realize how valuable that pick is under the new salary structure and will probably ask for a kings ransom. They’ll have to get so many picks that they A) get the value they believe is fair for the pick under some revised trade value chart and B) believe they can still get a player good enough to justify missing out on whoever is on the top of their boards. The latter issue is going to be tough if either team is dead set on Kalil since OT is a bit of a wasteland this year. Blackmon and Claiborne might be a little easier to pass on, but they still will want a little extra to give that up.

13

Omniscient, I didn’t see much of the Browns and McCoy this season, so I’m wondering if you could tell me what you think folks in Cleveland or the Browns in general think about him.

I honestly can’t say he is horrid, given what’s around him. Aside from concussion problems, what issues do you have with him? no arm? no head?

I haven’t thought at all about the draft this year. However, I do have 1 prediction.

RPG3 will be a major league bust. Just my gut feeling, but I think the team that drafts him to be their QBOTF(pat.pend.) will be setting the franchise back another 5-10 years. I hope I’m wrong.

As for the Steelers, they have quite a bit of maneuvering to do. Hines is probably going to retire, as well as Aaron Smith. They have a number of restricted free agents they need to lock down, but they don’t have a ton of cap room to maneuver with.

As for a first pick prediction, I’m not sure. The Steelers need a lot of things… they need offensive linemen that can block. They need a down lineman like the Giants Pierre Paul who can flat out get after the QB. They need a new OC, which will change what they will draft for.

If it were up to me, I’d go O-line. Let’s face it, Ben still has a few good years left in him as long as he stays upright, he can keep the Steelers in most games. But he cant have another 40+ sack year. That’s starting to take its toll.

Aaron Smith may retire, and he is a very good player. Most folks in the league don’t know enough about this guy. When he’s playing, he’s very good. But he doesnt play much anymore. If there is a large number associated with a roster bonus, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is cut (if he doesn’t retire first).

Every year, it seems like the Steelers need everything, but they aren’t as bad off as I make them sound. They won 11 games, and just had a rough go of it in Denver. Ben’s injury, along with the loss of Pouncy and Rashard was tough, and you can’t minimize the loss of Ryan Clark, who was missed from the secondary. Still, they should have still beat Denver, but they wouldn’t have won beyond that, so I guess getting bounced early was a good thing from a draft standpoint.

I just learned that Todd Haley is the Steelers new OC. I can’t stand that guy, I wonder what he’ll do with the offense.

Sigh… I really don’t know anything about what their plans are. One thing I do hope they do is upgrade their backup QB. Leftwich is a telephone pole back there, and Charlie Batch is getting up there.

I need to do some research. But right now, all I know is pitchers and catchers report on Feb 18th. Woo hoo!

14

I’m not in Cleveland and I’ve only seen as many Browns games as I’ve watched replayed on NFL Network. Maybe 4 or 5 plus parts of the few that snuck on TV here in Chicago on Sundays. But I soak up a ridiculous amount of media coverage and fan discussions and I’ve yet to hear anyone voice the opinion that McCoy is the answer. A few have made the case that he’s a fair temporary band-aid while the team builds at other positions, but those people are arguing against drafting RG3 or planning for a scenario where he gets taken ahead of them in the draft.

McCoy is basically in the same boat as Kyle Orton was in Chicago 5 years ago. Great clubhouse guy. Fans liked him as a person and rooted for him and teammates went to bat for him. People made excuses for him based on a subpar supporting cast and expected a major leap if only he had some weapons. Most impartial observers could see from the outside that this was lunacy.

SenorBeef could give you a better impression of what the tone is amongst the core fanbase but I feel pretty confident in saying that the locals will be only satisfied to have McCoy starting in 2012 if every other option is taken away from them.

There’s virtually no indication that this would be the case. He’s got the stats and experience to succeed. He’s about as good of a prospect as has come out in years. That said, this won’t be a uncommon opinion for reasons discussed in the previous NFL thread.

You’re being insanely kind. The Steelers are currently $30M over the cap. They will have to slash and burn and resigning any FAs will only make that worse. The Steelers are going to bleed badly on defense.

The Steelers are going to have to have the draft of the century to fix this.

Smith is going to have to go, as will Hampton and probably Farrior as well.

Do your research and check back in with us. Methinks you might be a little sheepish.

15

Wishful thinking at best. Colston, Moore and Meachem aren’t going anywhere. Henderson, maybe, but I doubt it. And there’s still Arrington as the #5 guy–unproven, but has shown flashes here and there. The Ingram trade made perfect sense for a team that had been through a running back nightmare the season before, losing in the playoffs to Seattle because we didn’t have a running game or even a decently healthy back.

16

You seem to be neglecting the fact that Brees is still unsigned with the Saints only $10 or so under the cap. Colston might get a monster offer elsewhere and I can assure you that Meachem will get high WR2 money from a team like the Bears. If the Saints want to keep him they’ll probably have to cut Moore or Henderson to fit him under the cap. The Saints will resign Brees and will have to choose between Nicks and Colston, if I’m paying a QB $20M+ a season I’m going to pay the lineman not the WR.

17

They only team I see the Rams moving down for is the Browns at #4. That would let them get some picks and still leave them Blackmon or Kalil available to pick, depending on who MIN goes for. The only other way they move is if they get a Saints/Ricky Williams level trade that gives them a bonanza of picks this year and I don’t see a team willing to do that for RGIII.

18

Does anyone other than me think that RGIII is going to be a bust?

19

Nope.

And dammit…the 32nd pick? Man, I hate being that far down in the draft.
Oh, wait…

20

Zing!

Hey, how is Matt Flynn any different from the flash-in-the-pan back-up from Philly that teams constantly over pay for?