2012 Early NFL Draft Thread - Speculation, Draft Order, Andrew Luck, Mock Drafts Etc.

The Game Room
1

Well, it’s about the time of year that 65% of the teams in the NFL are starting to really think about next year and the first step in that is projecting your team’s eventual draft position, which college prospects will probably be available for them and what positions of need will be revealed and addressed.

Thus far all the talk has been about the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Colts are trying hard to lock up that first pick in a year that’s remarkably similar to the one when Peyton Manning was on the radar. And, like with Manning, there appear to be other QB candidates that are going to try and steal his thunder and convince the Colts to go another direction at #1, RGIII, Barkley etc.

There’s a fair chance that the Colts could botch the #1 pick in the coming weeks. If I remember my reports correctly another Colts win coupled with the Rams losing out could flip flop their positions, though the Colts win (lose?) the tie breaker over Minny in a similar situation. What’s everyone predictions here?

Anyone think RGIII will capture everyone’s imagination in the Combine following the Cam Newton success? The kid won the Heisman, might win a major Bowl game and is by all accounts an A++ character guy.

Where do you expect you team to draft? Who do you want them to pick?

In that vein Todd McShay has released his first 2012 NFL Mock Draft of the season. It’s for Insiders only, but if you want me to post your team’s projection let me know. Here’s his top 5 for now.

[QUOTE=Todd McShay]

  1. Indianapolis Colts Record: 1-13
    Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford*
    Luck is a once-in-a-generation quarterback prospect, and Colts legend Peyton Manning will be 36 next season and is coming off multiple neck surgeries. Given the financial implications, it looks like the smart decision is to draft Luck and part ways with Manning.

  2. St. Louis Rams Record: 2-12
    Matt Kalil, OT, USC*
    The Rams need to better protect the investment they made in 2010 No. 1 overall pick QB Sam Bradford, and current LOT Jason Smith has not lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2009. Given Kalil’s size and athleticism, he is ready to step in right now and take over at left tackle.

  3. Minnesota Vikings Record: 2-12
    Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU*
    Claiborne is the premier cover corner in the 2012 class, and the Vikings rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense (260 ypg). He has size, fluid hips, good top-end speed and outstanding body control, and he excels at locating and attacking the ball over his shoulder.

  4. Cleveland Browns Record: 4-10
    Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama*
    Richardson is a more complete back than former Crimson Tide teammate Mark Ingram, the No. 28 pick to New Orleans in 2011. Richardson has a rare combination of size, speed, power, agility, burst and versatility, and is the rare exception to the don’t-take-an-RB-in-the-top-10 rule.

  5. Jacksonville Jaguars Record: 4-10
    Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
    The Jaguars have a pressing need at defensive end, and while Coples is not a speed rusher, his blend of size, power and quickness allows him to be a productive pass-rusher (17.5 sacks the last two seasons) and disruptive against the run.
    [/QUOTE]

For my Bears:

[QUOTE=Todd McShay]
19. Chicago Bears Record: 7-7
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
The Bears haven’t take a receiver in the first round since David Terrell in 2001, and I understand their hesitation to draft wideouts so high. However, they must find weapons for QB Jay Cutler, and Roy Williams clearly doesn’t make the cut. Floyd seems to have put off-field issues behind him, and his size and ability to play the deep ball make him an attractive option.
[/QUOTE]

I think it’s safe to say that we’ll end up in the 10-15 range before the season is done, but even so I actually agree with this pick. Justin Blackmon is probably a better option and might be in range for us if we continue our nosedive but Floyd might be a pretty strong option. We need a big, fast downfield option for Cutler and Floyd would be it. It’ll depend on the new system and a big possession type player could be a better fit but if they don’t go WR I’m going to be apoplectic. We need to add a second one in free agency too, maybe Dwayne Bowe or V-Jax though Reggie Wayne might be cheaper and better in the clubhouse.

Have at it.

2

The Rams need CB and a deep threat WR far more then OT. If an equal or better option at on of those two positions is available I think they go that direction. I say either Claibourne or Justin Blackmon.

3

Right now, I’m hoping the Packers have the last pick of every round in the draft

4

I’d be shocked if the Rams did anything at WR. They’ll probably resign Brandon Lloyd and expect to get Salas, Amedola and Clayton back from injury next year. I doubt McDaniels will be back, but if he is that would ice it.

5

If the Redskins keep winning they’ll continue to drop back and that’s not a good thing. They need a QB desperately, and it’s going to be Barkley or RG3. That win over the Giants dropped them back to 7th or 8th from 4th, and if they beat the Vikings on Saturday, they could drop as far as 12th or 13th, and closing out the season with a win against the Eagles would be a freakin’ disaster.

Will one of the top 3 QBs still be on the board by then? There may have to be some major trading up if they keep winning.

Not that any QB prospect, even Andrew Luck, is a guarantee, but I’d sure rather flip a coin on the 2nd or 3rd guy than roll a 20-sided die on a later round QB.

6

If the Browns take Trent Richardson in that position, I will fucking flip. FFS.

From what I hear Justin Blackmon is a likely top 5 pick, so the bears aren’t getting him.

7

Based on some back of the spreadsheet calculations, the Colts are fine unless they win both games. They have a weaker strength of schedule now (Colts opponents 120 wins, Vikings 127, Rams 132) and the final two weeks have a ton of divisional games which have no net effect on SoS.

8

Lions with another RB? I like to see what a healthy Leshoure can do before we go that route, but it’s not a horrible idea.(until the day I die I will always prefer o-line and secondary with 1st rounders).

9

No, Blackmon’s not a top 5 guy. The Top 5 could have 3 QBs and I’d be surprised if Kalil and Claiborne aren’t in the top 5 too. McShay’s spot on there. That said, depending on need (there’s a bunch of elite FA WRs this offseason) Blackmon could be top 10. Still, after the midget WR experience for the Bears this last few years I’m willing to be talked into Floyd being a better fit with his size over Blackmon. Tough to argue that production though.

McShay must have flat forgotten about Leshoure. That’s the only possible explanation.

10

Man am I hoping St. Louis gets the #1 overall pick. At this point they should - they close out the season against Pittsburgh and San Francisco, whereas the Colts play the Jags, and the Colts are a better team at this point. Unless Polian makes them tank it on purpose.

Stupid ridiculous loss the Browns had to the Rams this year that relied on 3 weird flukes include a botched last second 22 yard field goal. If they’d won that stupid game St. Louis would have the #1 overall already.

Edit: Unless the Vikes end up with it. Would they give up on Ponder already to take Luck?

11

If the Browns take Richardson, he better be a sure thing. They need so much more on offense. They need 2 decent WRs. They need a QB. They need a right tackle and a guard. They’ve got 2 first round picks (1 from Atlanta) so this would be a great year to trade that #4 pick for more picks.

What’s it going to take to trade up for Luck? If the Browns put something together for him, I’d be ok with it. I don’t know about RGIII as an NFL QB.

12

Barkley is staying at USC, damn. No idea if I wanted him (I don’t do draft research until closer to the combine) but it made things more flexible and valuable at the top - fewer premium QBs means the price on the remaining ones go up.

I haven’t heard of Richardson as an LT/Peterson type of talent and that’s the only way I’d consider an RB in the top 5. To spend that kind of pick on an RB is generally a bad idea (they’re pretty easy to find elsewhere), but it’s insane to do it in a year like this. Two great QB prospects, your team is drafting top 5, your team has no QB, and you take a running back? If you don’t draft a QB now, when the hell would you?

I guess if Luck is guaranteed to be gone and you think RGIII is bust material. But even then there are better ways to go with the 4th pick than a running back. Blackmon, for one - I’d rather have an elite WR than an elite RB at the top because it’s fairly reliable to find some later-pick RB that can do a pretty good job, the miss rate on later round WRs is much higher. Or trade down to the someone that does want RGIII.

13

I’d like to see who McShay projects for the Saints. In my view, they’re loaded with backs and receivers, so they should look at O-line–probably a tackle, and defense–maybe LB and DB.
Chase Daniel is a decent backup QB, but has little experience in games. If there’s a decent project QB available in the 3rd round or so, I would not be displeased if they grabbed him.

14

Thinking about it…I don’t know if the Saints even have a a first round pick this year. We may have traded it away to get Ingram last year…

15

When do trades start again in the offseason? When do the Colts have to pay Manning that giant bonus?

16

Make that 2 QBs, which opens up a spot for Blackmon to be drafted.

17

Leshoure came off an injury too. I presume he’ll be at 100%, but if Best isn’t, the Lions still technically need another running back. You always need a stable of running backs in today’s NFL, unless you have a freak.

18

Well, an awful lot has changed since I started the thread. Let’s see if I can predict what the final draft order will be.

Top 3: Colts, Rams, Vikings
The Colts still have the edge over the Rams with both teams tied at 2-13, but the Rams face the powerhouse 49ers who are playing a must win game. It’s in St. Louis but there’s virually no chance that the Rams pull out a victory here. The Saints and Niners both play at Noon so there’s no chance of a reprieve for the Rams. They are finishing 2-14.

The Colts on the other hand get the lowly Jags in Jacksonville who have actually looked even worse than the Colts of late. If the Colts win this game you will hear some truly apoplectic reactions on sports talk stations nationwide and the news in Indy will reach Pearl Harbor-like hysteria. It will be a catastrophe of immeasurable proportions. Yes, the Colts could still land RGIII and maybe even Luck if something gets wonky with the Rams/Bradford/Combine but a win here would be so counter productive that it’ll enrage people. I think the Colts still lose, they aren’t going to tank, but I think the Jags will muster just enough with MJD to win this one in front of about 5300 fans.

I include the Vikings here because with these three teams having .571. .552 and .565 SOSs (Rams, Colts, Vikes respectively) there might be some bizarre scenario where a Viking loss and a Rams and Colts win combined with some other outcomes could have those numbers flip flopping. Maybe not, but I’m not doing the math. Anyways, the Vikings might beat the Bears in the dome anyways making it moot. The interesting scenario is that a Vikings win could very likely drop them all the way down to the 6th pick on the back of that high SOS number.

Next 3: Browns, Jags, Bucs
All three teams are locked at 4-11. The Browns and Bucs are both facing playoff teams still competing for seeding and I’m penciling them both in for a loss. The Jags already discussed are looking at a win against the Colts. This win would bump them all the way up to 8th based on SOS assuming Miami and Washington losses.

**Next 2: Redskins, Dolphins **
Both teams are playing winnable games. The Dolphins face the Jets who are hoping to back into the playoffs in Miami, a game I really think they will win. The Jets have gotten lucky as hell and backed into the playoffs 2 years in a row, this year I think they fall on their faces. The Redskins have the Eagles who seem to be coming together in garbage time, a classic Andy Reid trait, and I suspect the trend will continue.

Next 3: Panthers, Bills, Chiefs
As nice of a season as Newton is having I don’t think he has the dap to upend the Saints who are rolling and need this win. That Panther defense is in for a long long day. I’d say you can replace the Panthers and Saints with Bills and Patriots in the previous sentence here but the news of Brady’s sore shoulder offers a glimmer of hope. Still, I’m not expecting an upset here. The Chiefs are going to Mile High against the Tebows and I think Orton will get his revenge.

So, the Top 10 picks if my guesses are correct would be:

  1. Colts (2-14)
  2. Rams (2-14)
  3. Browns (4-12)
  4. Buccaneers (4-12)
  5. Vikings (4-12)
  6. Redskins (5-11)
  7. Jaguars (5-11)
  8. Panthers (6-10)
  9. Bills (6-10)
  10. Dolphins (6-10)

**The Next 5: Cards, Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers, Bears **
The Seachickens and Cards are going head to head with nothing at stake. One will win, one will lose. The loser will be picking 11th, it’s in Phoenix so I’m taking the Cards to win. The Eagles as noted are expected to beat the Redskins and will be moving down the list with the Cards. You’ll see by where I ranked the Vikings above I think they’ll get over on the Bears this week. It’s probably a coin flip, but between homefield advantage, the odds of a let down from McCown and a Bears defense that seems to have packed it in I’ll go with the bad guys. And, I’d rather have the Bears in the top 13 as opposed to the top 20. The Chargers are in a position to play spoiler against the Raiders in Oakland. The Raiders seem like an obvious pick to crap the bed when the playoffs are on the line. We haven’t seen this inconsistent Charger team playing a meaningless game in a while so they could very well quit too, but I think Norv coaxes one more big statistical night from these guys.

The Next 6: Titans, Cowboys, Jets, Raiders, Giants, Broncos
The Titans get the Texans this week in a must win. They are fighting for the last playoff spot in a really complex scenario. The Texans don’t have much to play for but they’ve floundered quite a bit as of late. My gut is going with the Titans here, though I think they miss the playoffs. The Jets I already picked to lose to the Dolphins. The Raiders go down too. The Broncos fall in the revenge of Orton and the Cowboys and Giants are going head to head. I have no feel for who will win this one, the winner goes to the playoffs. For kicks I’m going to pick the Giants just for the headlines of a Cowboys collapse.

Here’s the next 10 teams:
11) Seahawks (7-9)
12) Chiefs (7-9)
13) Bears (7-9)
14) Cowboys (8-8)
15) Cardinals (8-8)
16) Eagles (8-8)
17) Jets (8-8)
18) Raiders (8-8)
19) Chargers (8-8)
20) Titans (9-6)

In this scenario the Broncos still back into the playoffs on the heels of a Oakland failure. Cincinnati also gets in regardless of the outcome of their game due to the Jets and Raiders/Broncos losing. Tennessee gets left out in a hard luck scenario.

19

Here’s a couple alternate scenarios:

Colts beat Jags, Vikes beat Bears:

  1. Rams (2-14)
  2. Colts (3-13)
  3. Browns (4-12)
  4. Jaguars (4-12)
  5. Buccaneers (4-12)
  6. Vikings (4-12)
  7. Redskins (5-11)
  8. Panthers (6-10)
  9. Bills (6-10)
  10. Dolphins (6-10)

Colts beat Jags, Bears beat Vikes:

  1. Rams (2-14)
  2. Colts (3-13)
  3. Vikings (3-13)
  4. Browns (4-12)
  5. Jaguars (4-12)
  6. Buccaneers (4-12)
  7. Redskins (5-11)
  8. Panthers (6-10)
  9. Bills (6-10)
  10. Dolphins (6-10)

Seahawks win, Bears win, Cowboys win.
11) Cardinals (7-9)
12) Chiefs (7-9)
13) Eagles (8-8)
14) Jets (8-8)
15) Raiders (8-8)
16) Seahawks (8-8)
17) Chargers (8-8)
18) Giants (8-8)
19) Bears (8-8)
20) Titans (9-7)

20

Would not hate Browns reuniting RG3 with Kendall Wright on the Browns.