Well, an awful lot has changed since I started the thread. Let’s see if I can predict what the final draft order will be.
Top 3: Colts, Rams, Vikings
The Colts still have the edge over the Rams with both teams tied at 2-13, but the Rams face the powerhouse 49ers who are playing a must win game. It’s in St. Louis but there’s virually no chance that the Rams pull out a victory here. The Saints and Niners both play at Noon so there’s no chance of a reprieve for the Rams. They are finishing 2-14.
The Colts on the other hand get the lowly Jags in Jacksonville who have actually looked even worse than the Colts of late. If the Colts win this game you will hear some truly apoplectic reactions on sports talk stations nationwide and the news in Indy will reach Pearl Harbor-like hysteria. It will be a catastrophe of immeasurable proportions. Yes, the Colts could still land RGIII and maybe even Luck if something gets wonky with the Rams/Bradford/Combine but a win here would be so counter productive that it’ll enrage people. I think the Colts still lose, they aren’t going to tank, but I think the Jags will muster just enough with MJD to win this one in front of about 5300 fans.
I include the Vikings here because with these three teams having .571. .552 and .565 SOSs (Rams, Colts, Vikes respectively) there might be some bizarre scenario where a Viking loss and a Rams and Colts win combined with some other outcomes could have those numbers flip flopping. Maybe not, but I’m not doing the math. Anyways, the Vikings might beat the Bears in the dome anyways making it moot. The interesting scenario is that a Vikings win could very likely drop them all the way down to the 6th pick on the back of that high SOS number.
Next 3: Browns, Jags, Bucs
All three teams are locked at 4-11. The Browns and Bucs are both facing playoff teams still competing for seeding and I’m penciling them both in for a loss. The Jags already discussed are looking at a win against the Colts. This win would bump them all the way up to 8th based on SOS assuming Miami and Washington losses.
**Next 2: Redskins, Dolphins **
Both teams are playing winnable games. The Dolphins face the Jets who are hoping to back into the playoffs in Miami, a game I really think they will win. The Jets have gotten lucky as hell and backed into the playoffs 2 years in a row, this year I think they fall on their faces. The Redskins have the Eagles who seem to be coming together in garbage time, a classic Andy Reid trait, and I suspect the trend will continue.
Next 3: Panthers, Bills, Chiefs
As nice of a season as Newton is having I don’t think he has the dap to upend the Saints who are rolling and need this win. That Panther defense is in for a long long day. I’d say you can replace the Panthers and Saints with Bills and Patriots in the previous sentence here but the news of Brady’s sore shoulder offers a glimmer of hope. Still, I’m not expecting an upset here. The Chiefs are going to Mile High against the Tebows and I think Orton will get his revenge.
So, the Top 10 picks if my guesses are correct would be:
- Colts (2-14)
- Rams (2-14)
- Browns (4-12)
- Buccaneers (4-12)
- Vikings (4-12)
- Redskins (5-11)
- Jaguars (5-11)
- Panthers (6-10)
- Bills (6-10)
- Dolphins (6-10)
**The Next 5: Cards, Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers, Bears **
The Seachickens and Cards are going head to head with nothing at stake. One will win, one will lose. The loser will be picking 11th, it’s in Phoenix so I’m taking the Cards to win. The Eagles as noted are expected to beat the Redskins and will be moving down the list with the Cards. You’ll see by where I ranked the Vikings above I think they’ll get over on the Bears this week. It’s probably a coin flip, but between homefield advantage, the odds of a let down from McCown and a Bears defense that seems to have packed it in I’ll go with the bad guys. And, I’d rather have the Bears in the top 13 as opposed to the top 20. The Chargers are in a position to play spoiler against the Raiders in Oakland. The Raiders seem like an obvious pick to crap the bed when the playoffs are on the line. We haven’t seen this inconsistent Charger team playing a meaningless game in a while so they could very well quit too, but I think Norv coaxes one more big statistical night from these guys.
The Next 6: Titans, Cowboys, Jets, Raiders, Giants, Broncos
The Titans get the Texans this week in a must win. They are fighting for the last playoff spot in a really complex scenario. The Texans don’t have much to play for but they’ve floundered quite a bit as of late. My gut is going with the Titans here, though I think they miss the playoffs. The Jets I already picked to lose to the Dolphins. The Raiders go down too. The Broncos fall in the revenge of Orton and the Cowboys and Giants are going head to head. I have no feel for who will win this one, the winner goes to the playoffs. For kicks I’m going to pick the Giants just for the headlines of a Cowboys collapse.
Here’s the next 10 teams:
11) Seahawks (7-9)
12) Chiefs (7-9)
13) Bears (7-9)
14) Cowboys (8-8)
15) Cardinals (8-8)
16) Eagles (8-8)
17) Jets (8-8)
18) Raiders (8-8)
19) Chargers (8-8)
20) Titans (9-6)
In this scenario the Broncos still back into the playoffs on the heels of a Oakland failure. Cincinnati also gets in regardless of the outcome of their game due to the Jets and Raiders/Broncos losing. Tennessee gets left out in a hard luck scenario.