Someone snuck a video of Manning throwing the ball pretty well.
He’s going to have a chip on his shoulder, and if his body can keep up, he’s going to be pretty good for a couple of years.
If he’s in playing shape, a viable option for the Colts is to trade Andrew Luck’s pick for something like 3 firsts, a few seconds, etc. Build that team around Manning and make 2-3 more superbowl runs.
I wouldn’t hate it if the Browns took them up on that I guess, but to be honest I’d rather have RG3 for cheaper.
Its interesting…in the midst of the way the media is portraying the relationship as so deteriorated beyond repair and that Manning being a goner is a foregone conclusion, nobody is really floating the option you just presented, which is certainly a possibility, and if Manning is really that guy in that video, a possibility that could see the Colts contend for at least a few more years…if I were a Colts fan this would be what I would want. He’s one of the best to ever play the game…and he’s still got mileage left in him!
From my understanding from the (admittedly limited) information available, this has jack to do with his neck being potentially re-injured and that its rather about his nerves in the neck regenerating and allowing him to feel “right” and to be able to throw the ball with the same velocity he used to. If that video is to be believed, it looks like he is, and he’s got months to go to improve as well.
The Colts are kind fucked here one way or another if Manning comes out and plays awesomely for another team. They have handled the situation pretty poorly IMO.
"In the meantime, the Rams are talking and will continue to talk with potential trade partners. According to league sources, this was the trade landscape entering the weekend:
• Cleveland (No. 4 pick): The Browns are unwilling at this point to include their second first-round pick, No. 22, as part of any trade package with the Rams.
Lest that puts the Ming vases and buses full of orphans at risk of Senor Beef’s fury, I’ll add:
“• Washington (No. 6): The Redskins appear willing to trade their first-round pick next year, as well as their No. 6 overall pick this year. But they aren’t willing to include their second-rounder this year, which isn’t acceptable to the Rams.”
It sounds an awful lot like the Rams are highballing everyone and nobody is willing to bite yet. Despite the scuttlebutt that the trade may happen quickly, it seems now that there may be a bit more waiting and negotiating before a deal gets done.
The Rams think they’re in a better position than they are, the media is creating hype about the cost of the #2 pick. It’s massively overblown.
The Browns can very easily outbid anything Washington does. Washington’s first this year, next year, and their 2nd next year? #4 and #22 beat that - both because #4 is significantly higher than #6 (6 is past the elite talent dropoff point), because a first rounder this year is worth more than one next year, and a second next year isn’t too great.
And this is before free agency shakes out, when the pick is elevated because we don’t know where Manning and Flynn are headed. If either end up in Washington, the Browns can sail to grab RG4 at pick 4 most likely. Or there will be some token tradeup with some late round picks.
The Browns probably won’t have to spend both first round picks but if they do, that should be all that’s required. I’m not worried. The Rams want more picks than it typically takes to move up to the #1 overall spot, not the #2, and no one is going to give them what they want.
I’d say the Rams are pretty spot on about the value of this move, keep in mind that the new CBA makes these picks even more valuable. It’s almost certain that it will cost 2 1st rounders and then a couple picks to make the move.
I don’t think there’s a single Seahawks fan here on the Dope so this probably won’t get much interest, but Marshawn Lynch just inked a deal for 4 years and $31M ($18 guaranteed) . Seems like too much money for a guy like Lynch as this deal sort of mirrors the deal that DeAngelo Williams signed but it’s short enough that they can walk away from it in 2 years and not take a huge cap hit. Might be a good benchmark for what Forte signs, if his comes in between Lynch and Williams deal in terms of length and money I’ll be content. It’s too much for a RB but it won’t be debilitating.
I’m going to agree with this. If Cleveland thinks RG3 is the QB that will solve their problems, they will have to give more than 2 first round picks;
You might think Cleveland is overpaying for RG3, but that doesn’t matter. As far as the Rams are concerned, someone will get desperate and pay the price they are looking for. I don’t know if the hype machine for RG3 has kicked into gear yet, but if everyone in Cleveland is expecting the team to trade for the pick, the Browns will have to come up with a great package or live with missing the once in a decade talent.
I think RG3 is completely overrated, but someone is going to draft high to get him. The Rams would be best served to trade with the Browns if the package is acceptable, because they only fall to 4 in this draft. That’s a huge benefit for them and they will probably work hard to get something done with Cleveland.
Maybe this is just because I don’t think it’s reasonable to value current draft picks (much) higher than future draft picks, but, as St. Louis, I’d definitely prefer that Washington package to the Cleveland package.
Yes, 4th overall is significantly better than 6th, and I admit I’m not yet as up to speed on this year’s draft as I will be later, but at first glance I’m not seeing any must-have prospects in the 4-6 range who are going to make it a HUGE difference *this *year, specifically, for Washington. But more importantly:
I’d really want that 2nd Round pick – those things aren’t just throw-ins; they’re extremely valuable. And,
Washington’s 1st Rounder next year is likely to be much higher than #22 overall. In the last three seasons they’ve finished with 4, 6, and 5 wins, respectively (and they weren’t exactly tearing up the league before then). In the last 20 years, the 'Skins have earned a 1st Round pick worse than #22 exactly once. By a rough approximation, the betting markets have the Redskins as 7th worst team heading into 2012. Basically this franchise sucks. I’d much rather have the a #6 and a #10 than a #4 and a #22, even if I had wait a little for the #10. The 2nd Rounder is just gravy. (And that’s not even considering that Washington’s next 1st Rounder represents a very decent lottery ticket for the 1st overall pick in 2013, which is extremely valuable now that the NFL has rejiggered the rookie pay scale – same goes for other extremely high picks.)
But as to the price, generally, it’ll depend on how free agency shakes out, and I’d be somewhat surprised if a deal gets done before that. If Washington et al. meet their QB needs elsewhere and it turns out that Cleveland is the only serious, viable bidder, then they may well get to move up for a relatively cheap price (a 2nd and 4th this year, and next year’s 3rd, say, as a floor?). I think the more the likely scenario, however, is that there are two or more suitors, in which case I highly doubt that #4 and #22 alone would get the job done for the Browns.
Blech. Unless they can get out of a large percentage of that $18M in guaranteed money by cutting Lynch after 1 or 2 seasons, this is just too much to spend on a RB who isn’t extraordinary. Probably.
I suspect, and anecdotes confirm, that it’s pretty common and longstanding practice. Fran Tarkenton (IIRC) told a story about some game where an opposing coach offered a case of beer to anyone who knocked him out of the game (the punchline being that, mid-game, Tarkenton offered them two cases to lay off.)
But Williams seems to have taken it up a notch – the rewards were large, frequent, explicit, and most of all, injury-specific. I suspect that what will really sink him is that he appears to have lied to the commissioner about it.
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The other thing about the bounty system is that it seems like paltry amounts, rewarding $500-1500. How much can that possibly matter when even the guys with the small contracts are making $500k+ per year?
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Everyone likes getting cash, especially guys who are, in many cases, only two or three years removed from being poor their whole lives. But I suspect a lot of it also has to do with the sheer competitiveness. These are elite athletes: you tell them there’s a contest, they will want to win.
The only QB in all of NFL history to post three clearly above-average years at age 36 or older was Elway, who had a terrific young team around him.
The Colts were not just the worst team in the league last year; they were a bad team where almost all of the decent players were over 30, and that isn’t the recipe for a worst-to-first turnaround. Up and down the roster, they are an old team in decline. Adding Manning doesn’t change that, even if you add a couple newly-drafted young studs along with him. The team needs a complete rebuild, not a patchup.
This is great news for the Texans, depending on the details of the deal. It’s unlikely the franchise tag will be used by them this year, due to how the offensive line is dealt with in the new CBA. All O-linemen are grouped together, which leads to teams being forced to pay LT money to guards and centers. Before I learned that, I was hoping that the tag might be used on either Brisiel or Myers. Sigh. It could be worse; they could be the Saints, trying to re-sign Carl Nicks.
I absolutely agree with you, but wouldn’t the rebuild be aided by all of the draft picks that Luck would garner them? They’d still have to find someone to play QB, or lump it again with Painter, et al.
Um, you need to look up the definition of guaranteed.
And we’re getting a pretty clear idea of what the RB market is. I have to imagine that a Forte deal is eminent. I’d expect Forte’s money to fall nicely between Lynch and Foster’s deal, say 5 years at $40M with $20M guaranteed. That’s a bit higher than I’m comfortable with but the reality is that they’re paying him for past performance which he’s certainly earned. Hopefully the drama will be settled soon.
Before the season, the Bears offered him roughly $15 million guaranteed, he said no, and then sprained his MCL. Unless the Bears suddenly rethink their position and pony up money they weren’t willing to before the injury. With Gore getting 13.5, Jamaal Charles getting only $10, I’m not sure a high mileage guy coming off an injury is worth it. I think the best plan for the Bears is to franchise him for two years, run him into the ground, and move on. But they have the cap room and he’s a huge part of their offense, so they may do it.
I think paying a player for past performance is absolutely a dumb move for a GM. That’s fan thinking, not franchise thinking. If they think his future performance is worth it, by all means pay him. But paying him for past performance is a mistake to my mind.
Whether they franchise him or sign him long term I don’t think will make a huge difference to the franchise though.
Everything you say is true. I don’t remember what the exact terms of Gore and Charles’s deal were, but I do remember what Williams and Johnson signed for. Everyone can debate about where Forte fits in the hierarchy but the market is pretty clearly defined. When Forte turned down his deal, which was never confirmed, it was right after what CJ2K And DeAngelo got. I’d say the market has corrected a bit since then.
You’re absolutely right about franchising Forte and the foolishness of paying for past performance, but I think those strategies lack a certain nuance. A case could be made to just franchise him and run him into the ground, but I think that would have a tangible negative effect on team morale and specifically on Forte’s potential commitment. Thus far he’s been classy and professional, but if you push him too far that might change. Also, practically speaking, with the way the CBA is written franchising him twice would cost something like $16M+ over 2 years. Why not just sign him to a contract for 4 years at $35M and then cut him after 2 years if the wheels come off. It would cost a bit more, but not a lot and you could weigh that against having him locked up for more time should his performance continue to be high.
With running backs especially paying for past performance is more about perception than reality but it’s there. Granted the Bears will certainly cut him should he falter, but if he thinks he’s being rewarded is all that matters and would go a long ways towards both solidifying a deal and to keeping future players playing under a rookie contract happy and optimistic.
There is certainly a benefit to developing a perception among players that performance now will result in a bigger payday later (a big issue for rookie contracts you smartly point out). Just like corporate goodwill, there is a reason to have your team perceived as willing to pay talent, especially home grown talent. The issue in the NFL is who do teams do it for, and who they don’t. Luckily the Bears have enough cap room to reward Forte and build that perception (not having to pay young players and first round picks is a huge part of that) this year. But for every long term contract to a player, there is another who was a salary cap casualty. It’s an interesting balance a club has to make.
I don’t think Forte is a guy who would dog it, especially if he’s making $8.5 million under the franchise tag, just because he was franchise tagged. There certainly are players like that, but I’ve seen nothing to indicate Forte would be one of them.
I all depends on what you project for his future. Given his high mileage and injury, I wouldn’t be confident saying he’ll play at a high level in 2014 enough to justify giving him an extra 4 million dollars. Of course I also think 2012 may well be the last shot the Bears have at a Super Bowl before they have to seriously rebuild that defense in addition to building that O line, WR, and TE positions. I could be wrong though.