2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion

Only Kyle Williams could make me say this: Hooray! The 49ers re-signed Ted Ginn Jr.!

They also signed former Tampa Bay backup QB and Jim Harbaugh’s “lost son” Josh Johnson. I imagine he’ll compete with Kaepernick to be primary backup and will probably push Scott Tolzien to the practice squad.

For RB’s in the NFL, it’s not, really. Arian Foster’s new deal gets him $18M this year. Michael Turner’s deal got him a $15M signing bonus, back in 2008. Marshawn Lynch? $10M guaranteed this year, with another $7M guaranteed next year. Frank Gore received, IIRC, $13.5 guaranteed in 2011 when he signed. This doesn’t even mention the crazy deals CJ2K and AP got. Granted, Forte isn’t the RB those two guys were when their deals were signed. Compared to that, I’d be irritated too at “only” 7.7M, even though “tagees” usually get their money eventually.

There is the risk though of a Napoleon McCallum [WARNING: Link is to video of an absolutely hideous knee injury] (or Mendenhall too, it’s starting to look like, if the Steelers think he might not be back to original form until 2013.) injury that could kill his chances of another deal. I’d have said ‘McGahee in the Fiesta Bowl’, and I’m still amazed at how well he came back from tearing 3 out of 4 knee ligaments. Point is, it can fall apart at any time for these guys, and I don’t begrudge them trying to maximize their revenue.

I dunno, I kind of see his point. They’ve had time to work out deals with all those guys but haven’t had time to work one out with Forte?

I don’t think it’s a time issue. The two sides don’t agree on how much money he should get. They have needs other than starting RB, and they can’t put everything else on hold while they work things out with him.

Because they don’t need a wide receiver!

:wink:

It has nothing to do with time. Forte is asking to be one of the top 3 paid running backs in the NFL. That’s simply insane. I love Forte, great kid, talented and productive, but he’s not special like AP. He struggles around the goalline and in short yardage, and that’s being kind, and he’s not a game breaker. He’s a workhorse and might be one of the most versatile backs out there, and I wouldn’t call him replaceable, but he’s not worth market defining money.

The Bears I’m sure are negotiating with him and while they have a habit of being stingy on occasion, they don’t have a habit of lowballing players when it comes to keeping their own. They have offered him very fair deals, but they expect him to be in the RB upper middle class, not the elite.

That said, all those points that Forte’s agent as well asJules Andre and Grey Ghost made are perfectly valid and compelling. (Forte’s comments are pretty damn stupid though, even if the emotion is understandable.) The Bears probably made some PR and relationship errors along the way and Forte was so wildly underpaid that it’s not the least bit surprising that he’s holding out for every penny he can get. Signing some veteran backups and paying them so much was a bad strategic move with respect to managing your relationship with Forte, even if it was potentially good football. Signing those guys and not extending Forte sooner were potentially shortsighted moves, but that doesn’t change the fact that Forte’s asking price is far beyond what the market and his production dictate and would be bad for the Bears if they caved.

Hopefully Forte will realize that signing a reasonable 5-year $40M deal would net him more cash in the long run than a 5-year $50M deal in which he gets cut in year 3 after he gets dinged up and the Bears draft a rookie.

Jeff Saturday to replace Scott Wells on the Packers’ line.

Just wanted to add, that I think Forte is worth objectively 5-years at $30-35M. That puts him solidly in the Charles, MJD, Gore, Turner range. I think I’d give him $40M to compensate for the amount he’s contributed at such a low salary prior to now and to repair the hurt feelings.

Well it certainly fills a need, reasonable move, I like the experience he brings if nothing else.

Every player asks to be the highest paid at his position. Have the Bears actually offered Forte $40 million? He’d take it in a second.

The Bears and Forte have been really tight lipped about what has been offered/rejected. Prior to the start of last season the Bears reportedly offered Forte a 5-year deal with $14M guaranteed. I haven’t seen a overall number, but it presumably was based off Jamal Charles deal and would have been in the vicinity of 5-years at $32M, give or take. That of course would have been an extension and the math is subject to debate and nuance in that case, but it was a starting point. I’d be surprised if the Bears haven’t offered him a package that had a per year average of about $6M and the $14M guaranteed is actually on the high side for even elite RBs, CJ2K only got $13M in real guarantees and another $17 on top of that guaranteed for injury. Naturally who knows what that purported “guarantee” covered in Forte’s case.

Back before Forte had a big 2011 season and before he had any leverage he turned down a $6M/year deal. No one knows where the Bears moved to since then, and I suspect $40M would get it done. Forte however keeps using CJ2Ks deal as a benchmark and that’s a real issue.

In other news, the Bears Special Teams Ace and aspiring starting CB Corey Graham is gone, signing a 2-year deal with Baltimore. Terms and his expected role have not been released.

And Marion Barber retired. Kinda surprising. I wonder if he’s serious about it or if there’s some financial benefit for him or the Bears that I’m not aware of. Seems like he’s still got some tread on the tires.

Sounds like this was advantageous to the Bears and something they probably requested from Barber. Wonder what the ramifications are if he were to change his mind.

https://twitter.com/#!/BradBiggs

After signing WR Andre Caldwell a few days ago, the Broncos signed TEs Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen. They also signed defensive back Tracy Porter.

The Broncos just signed former Bears backup QB Caleb Hanie to a 2-year contract to be Peyton Manning’s backup. I’m sure this will be met with a ton of knee jerk mocking and confusion because of how terribly Caleb Hanie played after Cutler went down. It might be a completely ridiculous move and it’s possible, though somewhat unlikely with a 2-year deal, that Hanie would be a third QB or practice squad guy but I’m going to reserve judgment a bit. Hanie was very well thought of in Chicago before Martz showed up and frequently excelled in preseason action and played very well in the NFC Championship game. I’m at a loss as to why he fell flat on his face last season, and Martz was never a Hanie fan and never supported him at Halas Hall, but there’s at least a case to be made that Martz and Hanie were simply a horrible, horrible fit. It’s possible Hanie is closer to that guy who played great in the NFC title game than the guy who shit the bed in 4 starts in 2011. Then again, maybe Martz was simply right all along and disliked Hanie for good reason. It will be interesting to see what happens if Hanie is called in to lead this Broncos offense.

For guys of Forte’s ability, yes it is. He’s been offered a deal along the lines of Frank Gore’s, and he’s turned it down.

I agree that RBs have a very limited window to cash in … which is why he should have signed a deal two years ago, even if was not all he wanted; he could have signed a deal at 2 or 3 mill per year in 2009, and still been in line to cash in again with a second multi-year contract before he turned 30. Instead he’s spent two prime years making 600k because either his ego or his agent insisted on getting top-5 money, even though most analysts think he isn’t worth it.

Under the franchise tag, by definition he’ll get top-5 money. Next year, he’ll presumably be free to keep seeking that top-5 deal. My guess is, he won’t get it then either; and when all is said and done, we’ll look back and said he should have taken the Bears’ offer.

This strikes me as a very bad idea. Forte would do better when all is said and done by playing it exactly as he has. Assuming he can get a similar deal to what he’s seeking now after this season, of course.

The goal here is to always get locked up as early as possible. Get the big money now and possibly a second (smaller) deal. Never take a long term mid-level deal in hopes of getting a bigger one later. That just doesn’t happen for running backs. I think of the ten highest paid RBs, only one signed their deal at age 28 or later. Your suggestion just wouldn’t work.

It will be interesting to me, as a Bengals fan, to see if Caldwell comes alive with Manning tossing him the rock. He was a middling wideout with the Bengals, nothing more.

This is my thinking: Forte was a breakout rookie in 2008. By 2009, it was clear that he was clearly outperforming his contract, and talk started of the need to lock him up. Let’s say in 2010 he’d signed a modest 4 year, 15m deal. Assuming that played out, he’d hit FA in 2014 at age 28, having already made 15m.

As it is, he’s spent the last two years making under 1m. If he’d had some catastrophic career-ending injury at any time in the last two years, he’d have been shit out of luck in terms of financial security. Luckily he hasn’t, and it now appears likely he’s going to be playing under the franchise tag in 2011, which will net him about 8m. Assuming he’s a FA next year, he’ll be hitting the market at age 27, having made under 10m.

Unless we think the difference between 27 and 28 is >6 million dollars, he’s made no more money this way, despite taking on considerable risk (and undergoing a lot of stress and damaging his marketabilty to sponsors, etc). And of course, if he had outperformed that 2010 deal, he still could be working behind the scenes on an extension right about about now, when he has two years left on it.

Precisely because RB careers are so short and vulnerable, guys like Forte who didn’t come in with big rookie deals need to jump on a multimillion dollar deal as soon as it becomes possible. Unless you have some really fantastic post-football career lined up, the difference between 500k and 3 million is much, much bigger than the difference between 3 million and 8 million.

Looks like the Cowboys and Redskins are fighting back against the league. I wonder what this might do to teams like the Steelers, already close to the cap, should the Redskins and Cowboys win and the cap drop.