2012 NFL Pre-Draft Discussion

Looks like the Bears just signed Lance Briggs to a 1 year extension. No terms released yet but one assumes that it’s going to be structured in a way to give Briggs a little extra cash up front and the Bears some cap flexibility. One squeaky wheel has gotten some grease and it’ll be interesting to see if this is a precursor to a Forte signing or if it’ll be the opposite and further piss Forte off.

We’ll have to wait and see what the terms are, but now Briggs is locked up through 2014.

Quick question for an Illini guy, Omni. What’s the scoop on AJ Jenkins? His names popped up in draft talk, and I don’t watch the Illini, so what are your thoughts on the kid?

Assuming you mean the SEC, and all time rather than just right now, Emmitt Smith. If not for him, Herschel Walker, Bo Jackson, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn and Jamal Lewis would be contenders (don’t laugh; the last three are all in the all-time top 21 in career rushing yards). Shaun Alexander or Stephen Davis, maybe.

If you mean right now, then Arian Foster, by a mile. Darren McFadden and Mark Ingram are the only other SEC backs with starting jobs, but then a bunch of good ones retired in the last few seasons: Taylor, Dunn, Travis Henry, Alexander, Deuce McAllister, Duce Staley, and Rudi Johnson.

Or maybe it’s Tim Tebow. :smiley:

Don’t forget Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. Both are very good backs who were ruined by injuries.

I think the problem is Florida. It’s always produced the most top backs in the SEC, but for the last five years they’ve run a system that doesn’t feature the running back, and for five years before that they were in a slump. So, all the top running back recruits in the state (Edgerrin James, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis) went to Miami instead.

What in the world is going on with Mike Wallace? I find it amazing that he hasn’t seemed to even get a sniff.

He’s certainly gotten a lot of sniffs. He’s probably gotten quite decomposed and is very stinky right now.

Oh, you mean the Steelers’ Mike Wallace.
He’d cost a first round pick and a massive contract to sign him now (he’s a restricted free agent). That’s too high for him.

The Steelers would seemingly get a third round compensatory pick if he leaves in free agency next year, so they don’t really have an incentive to trade him for anything less than a second rounder, which nobody seems to be willing to give up for him for one year of service. With his threatening not signing his tender, I think teams are willing to wait and see how his contract stuff works out before they offer anything more than a third rounder for him. Maybe a team will be willing to both work out a long term contract AND part with a second rounder for him, but none will so far. Personally, I wouldn’t either, because I think his contract demands would far exceed his worth (he is reportedly looking for more than Larry Fitzgerald got, which is just insane for him).

Though in fairness it was insane for Fitzgerald, too.

Me, too.

I have to think it’s because of big contract demands, because he’s only 25 and pretty clearly one of the 10 best WRs in the game. ISTM he’s definitely worth a mid-to-late-first-round pick and a deal along the lines of Desean Jackson’s.

I disagree. He had a whopping 3 catches and 85 yards more than Antonio Brown, his fellow receiver on the Steelers. And I don’t think anyone is saying Antonio Brown should make $120 million with $60 million guaranteed. I don’t have a very high opinion of Wallace, though. I think at best, he’s Santana Moss, a guy who can do well for you, but never going to be true #1 WR.

He’s not asking for DeSean Jackson money, he’s asking for Larry Fitzgerald money. Again, I’m biased against the guy, but I don’t think he’s even close to being worth what he and his agent thinks he is.

Santana Moss? Are you kidding me? In his career Moss’ career average is 831 yards; Wallace averages over 1000. And Sanders has only had one good season.

The impressive thing about Wallace, statistically, is his yards-per-target. His last year was 10.5, which was looks like about 4th or 5th in the league. The year before he was at 12.6, best in the league by a lot.

I wouldn’t take him over Calvin, Andre Johnson or Fitzgerald, but it’s hard to name anyone else that is head-and-shoulders better, and certainly not 7 guys. Ergo, “he’s one of the 10 best WRs in the game.” He’s used pretty heavily as a deep threat, but in my opportunities to watch him, that’s just a function of the Steelers taking advantage of his speed and their plethora of options; I don’t see any indications that he has major deficiencies on underneath routes (unlike, say, Desean Jackson).

I don’t know what the point is of bringing up $120 million; I said he was worth as much as Jackson (5/51). He’s clearly better than Pierre Garcon and Vincent Jackson, who both just landed $50 million deals.

Hence “I have to think it’s because of big contract demands.”

I don’t put a lot of stock in media reports about contract demands; Jackson was also supposedly asking for a huge contract, before settling for something much more reasonable. In any event, this year or next he’ll get a market-value deal; I’d bet on something like 5/60.

I’m biased, but I thought he was outstanding. He was leading the NCAA in receiving yards for a stretch by a wide margin, and even though he concluded his season with 3 of his 4 final games having 43, 33 and 30 yards he still finished 11th in the NCAA. He’s a stud who suffered with a awful QB and a really dysfunctional offense down the stretch. Big Ten rivals double and triple teamed Jenkins when it became clear that Scheelhaase was going to stare him down and force the ball to him in all situations. Even with that much pressure he was still pretty reliable on 3rd down. He needs some polish on his route running and he came from a spread system so he’ll probably have a bit of a learning curve but he’s dynamic, has great hands and great instincts. I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a horse #1 WR but he could be the best #2 in the game. Think Chris Carter opposite Moss.

You do realize that Warrick Dunn played at Florida State, right?

He’s asking for a shit-ton of money. I suspect that has everything to do with the issue. If reports about Wallace’s demands are true (and they aren’t disinformation being spread by the Steelers to scare off offers) then no one will even consider signing him AND giving away a pick. Not sure how many “sniffs” he’s gotten but it certain has been quiet, though maybe his agent is just a guy that doesn’t play games in the media. I wonder if teams question how good he’d be on a team without Reothlisberger and Arians.

Um, you do realize that he’s been a true #1 for about 3 seasons on a pretty prolific offense, right? I’m not buy Wallace as a top 5 WR in the league but he’s without a doubt a “true #1” in most all common uses of the word. Sure he’s not a thick, beefy guy who can abuse a CB like Megatron of Andre Johnson, but he’s every bit of Vincent Jackson with an amazing average per catch.

:smack: as a Buccaneers fan, I know better.

The Giants traded the last pick in the 5th round (er, last pick not counting compensatory selections … “the 32nd pick,” how’s that?) for Bengals LB Keith Rivers. Seems like a decent low-risk move: the guy is injury-prone, but if he can stay healthy there’s a lot of potential, and in any event he’s another body at LB, a position of real need. And anything that helps to keep Kiwanuka in the DE rotation is fine by me (they play him at OLB a lot to get him some playing time and to compensate for being thin at the position, but he’s just not very good at it).
Re: Mike Wallace, certainly his contract demands play a big role in it, but I don’t think his demands need to be super-high to scare everyone off. Even if all he wanted was regular big-time free agent money (instead of super-duper-star money), that would be enough to make him a pretty bad bet. Paying big money for any free agent WR is a risky proposition: a lot of the time they simply don’t work out and are just a drain on your salary cap, or they sort of work out, but not to the extent that they’re worth more than their cap number, so they generate zero marginal value.

If you’re also surrendering your 1st Round pick for the right to sign a guy to a big FA contract, well, he almost has to make multiple Pro Bowls for you just to break even on the deal. I think unless Mike Wallace is willing to take a meaningful discount on what he’d expect to get as an unrestricted FA, the smart move is to pass.

I don’t know about that. A guy three years in with what works out to three 1,000 yard seasons is like gold dust. I’d give up a first and a big contract for that guy in a heartbeat; when you spend a first rounder on a wideout, you’re hoping he puts up Wallace’s numbers anyway.

Look at it this way. The Bears would love to get Michael Floyd in the first round. He’d probably cost $3M per year or something and come with quite alot of uncertainty. If Floyd performed up to Wallace’s standard he’d be considered a huge success as a pick. If they signed Wallace they’d probably pay twice as much for half (or less) of the risk and uncertainty. It might not be a no brainer, but the price is perfectly fair.

Does anyone here think Dontari Poe will amount to anything? It seems like nobody actually wants the guy for his own team, but he’s high up on draft boards because of his workouts.

Me, I still have nightmares about Mike Mamula. So, Poe is terrifying to me. And from what I read, he’s a very likely choice for the Eagles at 15.

I really hope the Bengals can manage to get Decastro. They need inside o-line help badly. Their offense could approach juggernaut status if the interior line can be shored up so they can actually have success running the ball up the middle to open up the passing game for Dalton and AJ Green.

Man I love me some AJ Green!

So was Jason Pierre Paul.

I don’t like him much, either, but there’s plenty of precedent for college underperformers improving as pros.

And Vernon Gholston, Darrius Heyward Bey, Courtney Brown, Aaron Maybin, Matt Jones, and Mike Mamula.

True. But there’s plenty of precedent for the opposite also. That’s one reason why this draft thing is so damn interesting.

Poe took plays off, which is a big red flag. I don’t like too many red flags attached to first-round picks. But he’s huge and very strong, and also fast and agile for a guy his size.
I figure if he’s part of a D-line rotation, he can take those plays off while somebody else is on the field.

I hear Quinton Coples took plays off, too.