2013 NFL Pre-Draft Thread

The Ravens have had a rough opening day - they traded Anquan Boldin, lost Kruger to Cleveland, and lost Ellerbee to Miami. Losing both Lewis and Ellerbee, the linebacking corps is in trouble. I can’t help thinking that they wouldn’t have traded Boldin if they knew both Ellerbee and Kruger would go.

I guess there’s money to pay Ed Reed now - I hope he wants to stay.

TE Delanie Walker to the Titans. He was the knight on the 49ers offensive chessboard. Hopefully Boldin can do some of that, but a TE in the draft is now probable.

Boldin is, basically, a TE who lines up outside. He’s got a nice catch radius, strong body, and uses his body to shield the defender like a TE, but he no longer has the speed, or ability to get separation, that a typical WR has.

Bodlin’s not the blocker a TE has to be, though (he’s 25 pounds lighter than Walker). He’s a great blocker for a wideout, but he’s usually been downfield taking on defensive backs rather than LBs.

The Bears are once again active in free agency, now adding OLT Jermon Bushrod on a 5 year, $35.9 million dollar deal. Adding a TE and a LT helps out that offense quite a bit (if you believe in Bushrod that is). Bears fans must be happy. At least for now.

I wonder how we could be talking about the same guy. Goldson ranked 44th out of 58 eligible safeties in missed tackles per tackle attempt (per PFF). He was ranked 54th out of 58 in tackling efficiency in pass coverage and 22nd out of 57 in tackling efficiency against the run.

He was much better in coverage. 14 INTs over the last four years (3rd in the NFL for a S). 44.8 passer rating on targets against him last season (9th best for S). I think you’re suffering from a bias of short term memory based on ho he played in the playoffs. My understanding is his performance in the playoffs was the opposite of what he did in the regular season and more closely fits your assessment of him.

For the Eagles, I really like their first day. Nothing splashy or headline-grabbing, but every move seems sensible and like a solid fit. And all the moves were pretty cheap (except maybe Sopoaga).

I like Bradley Fletcher the most. I’m annoyed that I accidentally left him out of my post somehow, but he was just a hair behind Keenan Lewis for my preference. He’s young (27 by start of the season), has good size (6’0"), he has starting experience, and PFF rated him as the second best CB in the entire NFL in yards per coverage snap last season. He’s a terrific signing because he’ll be cheap, and almost all the questions around him were circumstantial.

Chip Kelly is going to gameplan based on his available strengths against his opponent’s weaknesses. I don’t know much about Chip, but I’m confident in that little bit. Versatility is going to be big. That’s why James Casey is such an interesting signing. I’m excited to see how Kelly uses him and I imagine that versatility will earn him a lot of play.

Chung is a fine signing because he too is still young (26 by season start) and he has experience and has produced a little. Sad to say he’s probably an upgrade at safety for the Eagles. Hopefully he can stay healthy. I’m not so sold on Sopoaga. The Eagles needed a NT badly, but I wonder if he was the right choice. At least he’s a natural NT, if nothing else.

No. I like Kruger but he was seen as a bit of a bust til this past season. He only started to get those stats when Suggs came back. Always thought he could do more than what he did, maybe he will in Cleveland. And yeah there isn’t a good track record for ex-Ravens beyond Priest Holmes, so Kruger and Ellerbe have a lot to prove in their respective new cities. I wish them well.

Ravens signed Chris Canty for $8m over 3 years. I don’t know much about him besides his size and injuries (6’7", played 9 games last year). Hope he passes his physical.

Paul Kruger only has one kidney. That kinda worries me.

The Browns also signed Desmond Bryant. I’d say the front 7 has been pretty well addressed.

He was raw when Baltimore drafted him. Played QB in high school, and only played 2 seasons at Utah. Still, the Ratbirds saw enough potential to draft him in the second round.

Ok and I’m sure those same “Ratbirds” will find another LB to draft and develop, like they do every year. Besides that bust Sergio Kindle. How hard is it to not fall down steps? Kids these days.

Heard Ray Lewis this morning in his new job on ESPN. I’m done with them.

Quentin Groves signed by the Browns, 2 years 2.8m. I like it. Horton gets a guy who can help install his system, Browns get some LB depth. He played a lot better under Horton last year than he did previously - seems like a pretty good value pickup actually.

Was surprised by the Demond Bryant signing. DT is one of the few areas the Browns are actually strong and deep at. But he seems young and pretty good so I’m happy. Good DL rotation. If they can snag Keenan Lewis and a free safety they’d have pretty much a complete defense. Not sure why they’re not interested in Goldson at all.

Paul Kruger’s 2012 stats:
6 games starting opposite Courtney Upshaw: 13 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1.5 sacks
10 games starting opposite Terrell Suggs: 17 solo tackles, 9 assists, 7.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovered, 1 int

The Browns don’t have a Suggs-type guy to take the attention off Kruger, and he’s been pretty ordinary when the o-line can focus on him.

They have Jabaal Sheard, who ain’t chopped liver. I believe he and Kruger can uplift one another.

And we shouldn’t forget that the Browns are switching to a 3-4 this year, so they wanted someone with experience like Kruger, as opposed to Cliff Avril.

The Brownies just guaranteed $20 million to a guy (Kruger) who played 22 snaps in the Super Bowl and wasn’t hurt. Many observers more knowledgeable than me (which is just about all of them) said there will be more bargains this year for veteran free agents than ever before and that only the “dumb” teams will jump into the early fray and overpay.

Little late, but I wanted to chime in on the Bears activity. I was tied up in an offsite all day yesterday and missed all the FA fury and only saw the Bears move via a ESPN text without details. Now I see they landed Bennett for 4 years at $20M and Bushrod for 5 years at $36M.

My immediate reactions:

  1. Yay! We got help at our two most desperate need positions, potentially the top two FA at their respective positions, and now can really go BPA in the 1st round.

  2. Shit! How the hell are they going to afford these guys?

Taking the second point first, the Bears were only about $3.5M under the cap prior to yesterday and had Urlacher, Izzy, Louis, Roach and several other role players unsigned. I’m sure these are somewhat cap friendly deals but they are probably at least somewhere in the $8M-$10M range for a cap hit. Today they cut Kellen Davis to save $2.4M, and its possible that Spaeth, Bush and a few others will be gone soon too but none of those contracts free up enough to match this and sign other guys.

This means that either a few veterans are going to need to take pay cuts or restructure or else there’s going to be some house cleaning on defense. Peppers is the big nut and a restructure isn’t going to be helpful. Both Tillman and Jennings could be in line for extensions to reduce their cap numbers. Melton could sign a long term deal with a friendlier cap hit in 2013. Still, I think someone important might have to go. Wonder if there’s any chance the Bears cut bait on Forte, probably would hurt more than help due to acceleration but he’s another big number that’s overpaid.

Back to the positive, these signings are excellent news. Bennett is a huge upgrade over Davis in all phases and so long as he’s the Giants version and not the Cowboys version he’s worth every penny of that $2.6M premium we’re paying over Davis. TE is obviously a glaring weakness for the Bears and this fills it in the best way possible, I disliked the idea of drafting Eiffert or Ertz in the first on general principles and he’s a much better value than either Cook or Walker. I’m curious if the Bears will look for a rookie TE in the later rounds as insurance or if they’ll keep Spaeth and/or Adams. Sounds like it could be Rodriguez and Bennett out there in 2 TE sets which I like a lot.

Of even greater impact is the Bushrod signing. I admit to not having a real great feel for how good Bushrod is and statistically he’s a minor upgrade over Webb, but for what it’s worth he’s been nominated to 2 Pro Bowls on a really dynamic, pass happy offense. My gut (maybe this is the Cubs fan in me leaking out) tells me that the stats understate the value of Bushrod in NOLA, in that system under last years circumstances with nary a double team to help he was solid, with a West Coast system he should be much better than Webb. Plus he run blocks and doesn’t get flagged. I worry he’s overpaid and I may have preferred Long if healthy, but overall I think this is a positive move.

Webb will almost certainly be retained and tried either as the starter on the right side or as the swing simply because he’s cheap and still has potential to improve. I’m guessing Scott is gone (unless he signs for league minimum) and Carimi’s move to OG will be permanent. Spencer is certainly not coming back and it’s possible that Garza gets cut too if they think Williams can step in and save a few bucks. I’d still love to see the Bears land Cooper in the draft with that 20th pick (or find a steal in the mid-to-late rounds) and bolster the inside of the line, but this signing really alleviates the temptation to reach on a OT like Fluker or Watson.

The Bears still have a lot of work to do, resigning their own and maybe grabbing a mid-range WR or LB, but the real question will be if anyone is going to get cut as a result of this.

Ravens released Pollard. Maybe the Pats will pick him up? Losing Pollard and Boldin hurts the most, but only because those guys are quintessential Ravens. I hope this means they keep Ed.

Florio seems to think the Ravens are courting Amendola. I don’t think there’s been a white receiver in Bmore since Stokley. I hope they consider DHB, not for his hands but just having Torrey and DHB on the same team again will feel like going back to college for me.

Reports now say that Baltimore is set to cut Bernard Pollard. I don’t understand that move at all - he’s just 28, led the team in tackles last season, and his cap number is a manageable $2.5 mil. They only save $1M by releasing him. I wonder if he’s not recovering from his rib injury as well as he’d like to be.

Called it… Spaeth is now officially gone too, saving the Bears an additional $1.6M of cap space.

The Bears TEs are going to be Bennett, Rodriguez, and who? Adams is so-so, but probably OK for a one-dimensional pass catching TE at league minimum. Rodriguez will probably be the new trendy “F” end and isn’t much of an inline blocker. Seems like they’ll need to find at least one more body who can line up attached. Supposedly this is a deep TE class, would like to find some insurance for Bennett in the 4th round.