2013 NFL Pre-Draft Thread

More interesting stuff:

Reggie Bush to the Lions.

Jake Long to the Rams.

Rashard Mendenhall to the Cards.

Bernard Pollard, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Laurent Robinson all released.

ETA: Most people will probably tease the Lions for that Reggie Bush signing, haven’t seen the price tag yet, but I can’t say I love it. I think Bush could be in for a pretty big year and I don’t love the thought of our LBs taking him on twice this year. Also, dying to see how much Long got paid. If he’s anywhere close to the deal Bushrod got I may be pissed and accuse Kromer of having a blind spot for one of his guys.

Which looks to be triggering Saffold to throw a trade fit. Sorry, Rodger, you are a natural Right Tackle being asked to play left. Just because you are a better option there than Jason Smith or Wayne Hunter does not make you someone that other teams will cough up enough to get you to play left.

Welker to the Broncos. That’s a scary offense.

The Bears just dumped Matt Toeaina. The move saves them $1.125M which frankly doesn’t seem like much. He was a solid rotational guy in the middle of the DL that could play both NT and DT. I guess he wasn’t really dynamic enough, but he also wasn’t a liability either. You could make a pretty decent case that Toeaina is a veteran’s minimum type guy and he was overpaid by a few hundred thousand bucks, but with Akoye gone and Collins potentially gone as well, it’s going to be pretty lonely in the middle for Melton and Paea. Will be interesting if the Bears can get a experienced DT who’s better than Toeaina late in the process for the minimum.

Pats fans are losing their shit right now, I love it. Personally I’d have preferred Amendola if I were the Broncos but Welker still has a year or two left in him.

Amendola might be a better long-term prospect, but Welker’s better now. They’ve got a limited window left with Manning, and I think Welker (whose contract runs out the same time as Manning’s does) gives them the better shot to win in that short-term.

I disagree, I think Amedola is a better player right now. Welker is clearly healthier land was in a better passing game, but in week 1 of this year Amendola is going to be more effective. In week 10 things might change, but even with recent history I trust a 27 year old to finish the season more than a 33 year old.

ETA: The Welker deal was 2 years, $12M. Cheap.

The Bears lost Geno Hayes to the Jags and Nick Roach seems to be heavily leaning towards signing with the Raiders. Urlacher hasn’t gotten an offer from the Bears. Hayes is not much of a loss, and I think Roach is probably going to get overpaid a bit so I can live with that. But, after today’s deals and the clear lack of urgency the Bears are showing with regard to Urlacher it looks like it’ll be Briggs and a bunch of stiffs out there at LB this year. The Bears are smart not to pay Urlacher franchise type money if there’s no competition for him, but I don’t think him retiring instead of taking a pittance to play is exactly a win either. Pretty sure they can make room to bring him back, but the other 3 or 4 guys rostered at LB are all gonna be rookies or rejects. Yikes.

Up in the air about Bush to the Lions. ESPN says 4 years 16 Mil. So it’s not a horrible number. I do like the fact they are looking at things that worked before, rather than just taking random shots in the dark. Jahvid Best really did look good when he was healthy and made the team better. Bush is the most proven thing in similar backs that are available. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, and see how it plays out.

Suh Restructured again, to give them more cap room, does anybody know of an up to the minute cap room site?

According to ESPN Chicago:

Guess my numbers were a little out of date, the Bears had a bit more wiggle than expected at the start and those new deals with Bushrod and Bennett were even friendlier for the cap than anticipated. Might not be a totally dire situation yet, though it looks like next year it’s going to be bye-bye Peppers because these deals are gonna have to count soon and Cutler probably will get some kind of raise.

Glen Dorsey to the 49ers. We need all the DLine depth we can get.

The Patriots are getting Amendola to replace Welker (five years, $31 million, $10 million guaranteed). Cliff Avril goes to the Seahawks for two years and $15 million.

Guess the Pats agreed with me.

The Avril to the Seahawks move seems a little odd, with Bryant and Irvin already there.

So far, I find the 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, and Saints to be a fascinating study of the salary cap. The Niners and Seahawks have young, cheap QB’s who won’t count much against the cap and their teams are able to make some pretty big moves in free agency with all that freed up cap space. Meanwhile, the Ravens and Saints are losing important players because they have to fit under the cap thanks to huge contracts to their QB’s. While I do get some perverse joy from watching Joe Flacco simultaneously sit on his massive pile of dough while at the same as whining about losing his #1 WR and his defense being gutted, I am concerned about what Aaron Rodgers and his new contract might do to the Packers.

ETA: The Packers are rarely huge players in free agency, but I’d love to see them pick up Victor Butler.

Flacco’s cap number is $6.8m this year I believe. About the same as Ray Rice. Add theirs into Lardarius Webb, Ngata, Suggs, and Yanda, and that’s like $70m of cap space gone. It’s hard to retain good players. Winning the chip didn’t help.

Ed is visiting the Texans. I wonder how much they think he’s worth.

Patriots fans lost their shit for a total of about 3 hours.

A few thoughts about moves made around the league:

• I feel bad for the Browns. Their moves are okay (I think Kruger will probably bust, but Bryant is a pretty valuable piece) but they sure do have to pay a premium to get a player versus just about any other team. Bryant especially got “wait… what?” money. 5 years/$34 million/$15 million guaranteed is absolutely insane.

• Welker to the Broncos is one of those moves that is just scary good. You not only get the perfect weapon for Peyton (Peyton had the highest completion % to slot receivers in the NFL last year) but they also weaken a conference rival. If the Broncos offense stays healthy, they are going to punish defenses.

They also got DRC. I guess the Eagles never had any interest in bringing him back. I understand that based on last season, but I hate ignoring that much potential. Denver might have gotten a top level talent on the cheap.

I read on Twitter that Louis Vasquez has four years of NFL experience, 54 games played, and he has one penalty in his career. Whoa.

• Seattle looks ridiculous on paper. They’re my early choice to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Getting Harvin and Avril is just silly when that offense was pretty good and that defense was top notch to begin with.

I don’t know if anyone else made the same point, but Bill Barnwell of Grantland made a great point recently: the teams making the biggest splashes (aside from Denver) are taking advantage of tiny salaries to their QB position. Indy, Seattle, and Miami are all able to spend because their QBs make so little money compared to the top QBs.

I wonder how these teams will manage when those QBs come up for extensions. It’ll take a lot of wrangling to be in a position to extend these QBs and keep these teams together. This will be interesting to follow over the next few years.

• The NFC East looks really weak. Nobody (except the Eagles) has any room to make moves and none of the teams were well off to begin with. It won’t take a very good team to win that division.

I don’t know how much the Browns overpaid. I guess the fact that I haven’t heard of Bryant and he wasn’t high on an any FA lists is evidence that they did.

The Kruger contract is about what I was expecting. The media was speculating 10-12m a year, which seemed kinda nuts. I think they overpaid for Kruger relative to what he’s worth, but I’m not sure they overpaid relative to the market - young pass rushers like him rarely go into the market and they usually command good money when they do.

Have any corners signed yet? I wonder if they’re waiting for Revis’ new deal to set the market. If the Browns snagged Keenan Lewis I’d be pretty happy about FA. Could’ve used Martellus Bennett though. And a safety I guess.

DRC signed with Denver.

I recommend reading Barnwell’s aforementioned Grantland article; he has a pretty good handle on how some teams always seem to find better value in free agency than others.

As a long time Ravens observer, their free agency losses have not been nearly as disastrous as more casual onlookers might think. Kruger and Ellerbe were overpaid by their new teams and Pollard, who has been with four teams in six years (soon to be five in seven) couldn’t cover anyone. So a defense which wasn’t all that good to begin with, ranking in the lower half of the league this past season, will turn over at inside linebackers and probably both safeties. Count on them to get younger and faster at those positions in fairly short order and they’ll still be strong on the defensive line and at the corners.

Meanwhile, the offensive line will retain three key performers and an aging Boldin (his wonderful postseason notwithstanding) will be only slightly missed. He had a lot of trouble getting separation the past few years.

They’ll still be a tough match up and a sixth straight trip to the playoffs is nowhere near out of the question.