If you’d rather not click through, the nominees are:
Nirvana
Chic
Deep Purple
Kiss
Hall & Oates
The Replacements
Peter Gabriel
LL Cool J
Link Wray
The Meters
N.W.A
The Paul Butterfield Blues Band
The Zombies
Cat Stevens
Yes
Linda Ronstadt
The obvious most likely inductee is Nirvana. Deep Purple isn’t in yet, which is surprising since “Smoke On The Water” is perhaps the most iconic rock riff. KISS and Yes are long-time HOF rejects; since this list is stronger than I would have expected, it may be tough for them to make it this year. LL Cool J and NWA are the usual sops to the rap crowd; I would think NWA has the better chance.
Hall & Oates, Cat Stevens, and Ronstadt are the soft-rock/top 40 crew; though H&O has had amazing chart success (34 Top 100 songs; 6 #1 songs), I would think Ronstadt has the best chance in 2013 due to her recent disclosure that she has Parkinson’s disease.
The Replacements (along with Butterfield, The Meters, and Link Wray) are in that category of “much more influential to other artists than to the listening public”, so it’s hard to guess how they will do. Gabriel is (IMHO) deserving, but they may wait a bit after inducting Genesis last year. The Zombies seem a little light on accomplishment compared to the rest of the list, and it would surprise me if they got in.
Of course, the ongoing snub of “Weird Al” Yankovic is an indictment of the whole process.
You don’t comment on Peter Gabriel. I would expect him near the top of the list, after Nirvana. Deeply respected, innovative with music, video, etc. Seen, along with Paul Simon and few others as the World Beat connection on the Rock side of things. Some huge popularity. Has to be a shoe-in.
I say Nirvana, Peter Gabriel, and Linda Ronstadt. I don’t think Gabriel’s solo work merits the HoF, but the Rolling Stone people love the artsy fartsy types. Ronstadt will get the sympathy nod. Personally, I’m pulling for Hall and Oates. I’d like to see Cat Stevens get in just to watch all the heads at Fox News explode.
Oops; sorry. And I hadn’t considered that sequence/politics issue; lord, that’s stupid, but I could totally see it factored in. Oy.
As it stands now, I am thinking Nirvana, Deep Purple, NWA, Peter Gabriel and Chic (with Nile Rodgers peaking right now and Chic deeply respected as musicians and innovators, disco or not).
No love for Yes? I admit, they’re a personal favorite of mine so I have a soft spot for them. Since Rush was just inducted maybe they won’t be in the running this year.
This really is a strong list, so the internal politics will make the year unpredictable.
Rap has taken over the music world, and four groups are already in the Hall. They’ll keep adding one every year. So probably N.W.A.
One iconic old band that’s been overlooked. I’d guess Yes. Bigger at the time than Deep Purple and less cartoonish than KISS.
Linda Ronstadt is the only woman on the list. She’s beloved, ill, and represents a side of rock that none of the others do. As close to a shoo-in as Nirvana.
If they go to six, then maybe Chic, just to round out the genres. Paul Butterfield, to honor the influence that blues had on rock, or Link Wray, for the guitar influences. Will The Replacements make it the the same year as Nirvana? Doesn’t seem likely. Same for Peter Gabriel and Yes. LL Cool J and N.W.A. They added three backing groups in 2012, so The Meters have a chance but not for a while.
Least likely are The Zombies, Cat Stevens, and Hall & Oates. Good mid-level acts. Not iconic, not influential, not historic.
I’ll try to offer a dispassionate analysis, ignoring what I actually like and predicting who actually WILL get in.
Rock Hall of Fame voting is a lot like Pro Football Hall of Fame voting, in that there are a lot of nominees but only a few slots. Each year, there are one or two no brainers, then a lot of strong contenders who’ve been waiting their turn for a while.
There is only ONE candidate on the list who, in my opinion, has absolutely NO chance of being inducted this year- I’m looking at you, Youssif Islam! Eveyone else has at least an outside shot.
This year, Nirvana (whom I really didn’t like all that much) are the no-brainers. They will get in for sure.
There has to be a female inductee- that means** Linda Ronstadt **will get in.
There has to be one rap selection. Both NWA and LL Cool J will eventually be selected, but since NWA was slighted in favor of Public Enemy last year, it’s seen as “their turn.” NWA gets in.
At least one act that the public barely cares about has to get in, either because critics love them or because they have some kind of historic importance- will it be Link Wray, the Replacements, or the Meters? I’ll say… **Link Wray. **
One metal band will get in. Will Deep Purple finally make it, or will it be KISS? Very tough call, as both are worthy… but since Deep Purple was around first and was more influential, I say this is their year. It figures the idiot voters would wait til it’s too late for Jon Lord to attend.
That leaves a pop/top 40 act. Both Hall and Oates and Chic are worthy*, and I think/hope both will make it. But again, since **Chic **was passed over last year, I say they get in this year. Again, too bad the great Tony Thompson won’t be around to accept the honor.
Now, the act I like most on the list is Yes. Do they have ANY chance of being elected? Yes, but only a slim chance. The critics who vote HATE progressive rock, and really don’t want to elect them. (Hell, how were the Moody Blue not elected ages ago?) They could sneak in IF and only if there are a lot of split votes.
Speaking as a guy who chanted “Disco sucks” passionately in the Seventies, and who STILL thinks most of it sucks, I consider Chic a worthy entry because their musicianship was absolutely first-rate. A LOT of disco was prefabricated, but Nile Rodgers, Bernard Edwards and Tony Thompson could play with ANYBODY.
Crap. I hate it when I do that. Sorry for the misspelling Xap. WordMan, indeed.
Telemark - you know, we’re all trying to read the tea leaves of a pretty absurd organization, as we have all lamented across these annual threads (ETA: and as astorian attempts to negotiate in his post. Solid breakdown, even if you end up with a couple different from mine ;)). Bottom line is that the RRHoF hasn’t demonstrated a predilection for Prog, and with so many other: a) Strong candidates; and b) Long-standing Discussion candidates (e.g., Kiss, Deep Purple), I figure Yes would not make it in this vote…
I’d love for The Replacements to get in - they’re easily my favorite act on the list - but I don’t think there’s a chance in hell they’ll make it this year. I’d say Nirvana, Deep Purple, Chic and Hall & Oates are likely.
This is the first year that Nirvana is eligible, they can wait. What’s the rush?
It is time for KISS, The Paul Butterfield Blues Band, and Deep Purple. And Linda Ronstadt since she can’t sing any longer due to Parkinson’s.
Many bands get passed over the first time, and the time for Nirvana to get passed over is now. Cobain will still be dead next year, and the year after.
Still no Dick Dale, still no Surfaris. Maybe they’ll let Link Wray in this time, and show they have some idea that the Rock and Roll hall of fame shouldn’t be about album sales. We already had the Grammys every year, IIRC.
Conventional wisdom has always been that Jann Wenner (and, by extension, the HoF voters) doesn’t like prog rock. Given that Rush, Genesis, and Queen have all made it into the Hall in the past few years, I kind of suspect that the voters may be thinking, “there, you prog nerds, we put some in, now shut up already!”. (Which is sad, because Yes is one of my favorite bands, but I think they’re always going to be a longshot, at best.)
AFAIK, there’s no real blood-feuds going on between any of the members/former members of Yes that would prevent any of them from showing up at the ceremony if selected. Do they have a stage big enough for that group of people?
