Talk about a slugfest for Best Picture! I guess Birdman is the limited front-runner?
I’m torn between wanting Boyhood to win because it’s my favorite of the nominated films (along with Budapest Hotel) and not wanting it to win because it will not deserve the wrath that will rain down on it. Being nominated is its own reward. Who would have thought it would come this far? I also feel the same way about Grand Budapest and Birdman. What odd, weird, bizarre movies to be even nominated for Best Picture! I think it’s great, and the fact that two of the weirdos are frontrunners for BP is pretty surreal.
The fact that this tiny, personal, indie, no-plot movie won the highest British film honor speaks well of its Oscar chances, IMO. Boyhood is not just about these particular people in Texas, it’s a universal story about family and growing up that people from anywhere, in any profession, can relate to. Of course people in the industry can relate to a lot of things in Birdman too, but the Brit voters are all in the industry, and they chose the family story, not the actor’s story. Maybe Oscar voters will do the same. Maybe the Guilds voters decided to reward Birdman, but those who are Academy voters too will switch their votes.
Or not! Who knows? I guess Birdman is the limited front-runner, but I would not be surprised if Boyhood takes it. Then again, I would not be surprised if The Theory of Everything sneaks in and snatches the Oscar. Because…Oscars. Voters don’t like to be told what to do.
All very good points. None of the frontrunners play by the awards-bait template; in fact, they stand in open defiance of convention, and regardless of what you think of either or if there’s one you like more, they are both definitely not what usually piques the Academy’s fancy.
With the DGA weighing in, I think Inarritu has that category in the bag, but BOYHOOD can still pull a Pic/Director split, which is fine with me–I love sharing the wealth. I also doubt either film is likely to win more than 4 total, which means BUDAPEST could take the most if it does a mini-sweep of some of the crafts categories.
I don’t think THEORY has a remote chance for Pic, since it’s missing both a Director and an Editing nomination. You’d have to go back 70+ years the last time that happened. But IMITATION GAME could be that spoiler–it’s well-liked across the branches and it’s cozy enough but “important” enough for those more conservative voters to hang their hat on if the other two are too outside their comfort zone. I think it’ll take Adapted Screenplay and THEORY will have to settle for Actor and/or Score (at most).
I forgot about the no Editing/Directing noms. I would have expected Theory & Imitaton to be the front-runners fighting, plus Selma if it had been released earlier and had been treated like a contender by its studio. If there were a spoiler I would want it to be Selma but I don’t really think that will happen.
As much of an awards geek as I am, I rarely remember what/who won, only the movies I love. Boyhood could lose, but it will always remain a timeless classic in my heart.
American Sniper has some dark horse potential here. Meanwhile, I always like these “brutally honest Oscar ballot” pieces…here’s the first, with clickthroughs to the others on the left:
And a reminder that the Independent Spirit Awards are tomorrow.
You know…they don’t seem so independent anymore.
The Full List of Independent Spirit Awards Winners:
Best Feature – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Director – Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Lead Male – Michael Keaton for Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Lead Female – Julianne Moore for Still Alice
Supporting Male – J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
Supporting Female – Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
Screenplay – Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler
Cinematography – Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Editing – Tom Cross for Whiplash
Best First Feature – Nightcrawler
First Screenplay – Justin Simien for Dear White People
John Cassavetes Award – Land Ho!
Documentary – CitizenFour
International Film – Ida
Robert Altman Award – Inherent Vice
Special Distinction Award to Foxcatcher
Piaget Producers Award – Chad Burris, Elisabeth Holm and Chris Ohlson
Kiehl’s Someone to Watch Award – H., directors Rania Attieh & Daniel Garcia
Lenscrafters Truer Than Fiction Award – The Kill Team, director Dan Krauss