2014 College Football General Thread

[DinoR]

@BobLibDem

In the Finally! Department, Game Day is coming to East Lansing this week! I’ll be there- look for the handsome devil wearing green.

Pound Green, pound!

[Nauplius]

Why doesn’t the AP poll take into account head to head victories?

Looking at this weeks poll I noticed several teams with identical records that are close to each other in the poll but the loser of the head to head game is ranked ahead of the winner:

#6 TCU ahead of #10 Baylor
#12 Ole Miss ahead of #14 LSU
#18 UCLA ahead of #20 Utah

Can anyone explain this?

[That_Don_Guy]

@Nauplius

Why doesn’t the AP poll take into account head to head victories?

Looking at this weeks poll I noticed several teams with identical records that are close to each other in the poll but the loser of the head to head game is ranked ahead of the winner:

#6 TCU ahead of #10 Baylor
#12 Ole Miss ahead of #14 LSU
#18 UCLA ahead of #20 Utah

Can anyone explain this?

It’s not so much who you beat as it is when, and to whom, you lost. In 1993, Notre Dame beat Florida State in the regular season, but then lost to Boston College the following week; Florida State and Notre Dame finished the season 1-2 in both polls, even though both had the same record and Notre Dame had the head-to-head victory.

Also, in 2007, Missouri beat Kansas on 11/24, only to lose the Big 12 championship game to Oklahoma a week later - and then have Kansas chosen over them for a BCS bowl game (which, since Oklahoma went to one automatically, meant that Missouri was shut out of the BCS under its “two teams per conference maximum” rule).

[Thing_Fish]

Oregon 45, Stanford 16. Ah, that felt good!

A thing that would really suck is if Michigan State wins out and doesn’t make the playoff. I think we can all agree that an undefeated Big 10 champion couldn’t possibly be left out, and in that scenario the only reason MSU wouldn’t be undefeated is that they had the balls to put Oregon on the schedule instead of Samford. Something is wrong when Mississippi State gets to be #1 for being “undefeated” without even playing any power conference teams at all in their nonconference schedule, ahead of another undefeated power conference team that played and beat Notre Dame. This is not the sort of thing the system should reward.

[Thing_Fish]

So, I had a great deal of work to do this morning, and instead used this site to calculate the winning percentages of each of the 5 major conferences against each other since the start of the 2008 season. These don’t add up to .500, because it’s looking at all games between teams NOW in conference A against teams in conference B AT THE TIME OF THE GAME. For instance, the Pac-12 is 16-35 against the Big 12, but the Big 12 is 17-6 against the Pac-12; the discrepancy is due to games that Colorado played (and mostly lost) against Big 12 opponents while they were still in the Big 12; these games count for Pac-12 vs Big 12, but not the other way around.

PAC-12
vs Big 12 16-35 (10-17 not counting Colorado)
vs Big 10 19-13
vs SEC 6-8
vs ACC 14-4

BIG 12
vs Pac-12 17-6
vs Big 10 12-6
vs SEC 6-12
vs ACC 15-6

BIG 10
vs Pac-12 16-20
vs Big 12 26-26
vs SEC 10-15
vs ACC 28-45 (12-13 not counting Maryland)

SEC
vs Pac-12 8-5
vs Big 12 49-38 (12-6 not counting Missouri and Texas A & M)
vs Big 10 20-9
vs ACC 35-23

ACC
vs Pac-12 4-14
vs Big 12 9-12
vs Big 10 9-17
vs SEC 24-36

overall record of all conferences in interconference play against other power conferences:
SEC 112-75 (75-43 not counting Missouri and Texas A & M)
Big 12 50-30
Pac 12 55-60 (49-47 not counting Colorado)
Big 10 80-106 (64-74 not counting Maryland)
ACC 36-79

Conclusions: much to my disappointment, this data does seem to support the argument that the SEC has been the strongest conference in recent years, and suggest that, aside from a couple teams, the ACC’s claim to be a power conference at all is fairly dubious.

[DinoR]

@Thing_Fish

Conclusions: much to my disappointment, this data does seem to support the argument that the SEC has been the strongest conference in recent years, and suggest that, aside from a couple teams, the ACC’s claim to be a power conference at all is fairly dubious.

SEC is only running 1% better than the Big 12 in the “not counting teams that moved” numbers. They also played almost as many games against the dubious quality ACC as the other power conferences combined. You might make the case that SEC dominance and number of games against the ACC made that conference look weaker. The problem with that theory is the SEC had the second worst record against the ACC of the power conferences. A good chunk of the Big12 to SEC games can be explained by bowl games (the best of the conferences). Taking out padding numbers against weak ACC competition, it’s seems to me the Big12 is the strongest as a conference while the SEC has had some elite teams.

[Thing_Fish]

Not counting teams that moved and not counting the ACC as a power conference:

SEC 40-20
Big 12 35-24
Big 10 78-93
Pac 12 35-43

Not counting the ACC, but counting teams that moved (which seems to me like the most reasonable way to assess the strength of the conferences now, not the hypothetical strength they would have had without dubious expansion decisions):

Big 12 35-24
SEC 67-52
Big 10 52-61
Pac 12 41-56

So this way of looking at it does indeed put the Big 12 slightly ahead of the SEC.

[JohnT]

Grantland has an article out today about the B1G’s struggles for respect. They do make note that:

On some level, the league and its fans have carried a chip on their shoulders since January 8, 2007, when overwhelming favorite Ohio State was crushed by Meyer’s underdog Florida Gators in the BCS championship game. The Buckeyes were trounced again in the title game the following year, by LSU, and the postseason stigma stuck. Between 2006, when Ohio State and Michigan spent much of the season ranked no. 1 and no. 2 in both major polls, and 2013, the last year of the BCS, Big Ten teams turned in a 5-10 record in the big-money bowls, including a 2-6 mark in the Rose Bowl. The conference’s Q rating hit rock bottom on New Year’s Day 2011, when Big Ten teams went 0-5 overall and endured disembowelments at the hands of three SEC opponents by a margin of 138-45. “It was a long day,” Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany conceded at the time. “Nobody beat us on a fluke. The better team won in every case.”

Yes, and those better teams have kept on winning. From 2007 to 2013, Big Ten teams turned in losing overall records against the SEC (9-17), Pac-10/12 (17-22), and Big 12 (27-34), managing to go .500 only against the similarly marginalized ACC (11-11). Even in the context of the conference’s decline, the dearth of resonant, marquee wins in that stretch is almost startling. The Big Ten’s last regular-season win over a top-10 team — from within its ranks or without — was a little more than three years ago, on November 5, 2011, when Northwestern upset no. 9 Nebraska in Lincoln. For the last regular-season nonconference win over a top-10 team, we have to go all the way back to September 16, 2006, and Michigan’s 47-21 upset over no. 2 Notre Dame. Almost startling, but not quite, because the league’s national profile has ebbed accordingly.

So far in 2014, B1G teams are 5-11 against teams from the other Power 5 conferences,3 with seven of those defeats coming by at least 14 points. The first weekend of September in particular was a universally acknowledged bloodbath, including decisive, high-profile flops by Michigan State (at Oregon) and Ohio State (against unranked Virginia Tech) that seemed to leave the league’s playoff hopes on life support barely two weeks into the season. It took Indiana, of all teams, to raise the Big Ten banner in SEC country with an inexplicable, 31-27 upset at then–no. 18 Missouri on September 20. That game sits alongside Michigan State’s win over Nebraska as the conference’s only victories over an opponent ranked anywhere in the major polls, and it remains a head-scratcher: The previous week, the Hoosiers had lost a 45-42 shootout against Bowling Green; six weeks later, they’re 0-4 in B1G play, having lost by an average margin of 25.3 points per game.

[JohnT]

@BobLibDem

I just think it’s right to play your non-conference games first and then when everybody is in midseason form you play your conference schedule. It just seems better. We do it in basketball too, though there is the occasional non-conference game in the Big Ten schedule in February.

I thought of this post when I read the following in the Grantland piece…

In the face of the facts, many Big Ten fans (following Delany’s lead) have abandoned defending the conference’s on-field record, which was overrun long ago, and retreated to the higher ground, where they can take refuge in their conviction that they do things the right way — unlike those feckless, win-at-any-cost heathens in the South.

…

In any event, the suggestion that righteous rhetoric takes priority over winning records is as hard to take seriously in the Big Ten as it is everywhere else. In early 2012, then-Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema responded to Meyer’s early recruiting success at Ohio State by vaguely accusing the Buckeyes of “illegal” tactics and assuring reporters that “We at the Big Ten don’t want to be like the SEC — in any way, shape or form.” By the end of the year, Bielema had fled Madison for the top job at Arkansas, citing his inability to keep good assistants at Wisconsin due to inferior salaries. At the time, the Badgers were slated to play in their third consecutive Rose Bowl, while Arkansas had yet to win an SEC title in its 20 years in the league. Talent follows the money, but only when it’s spent on reinforcing more talent.

Italics and links theirs.

[Zakalwe]

And the ACC refs take that extra effort to cement their reputation as the worst in major CFB. Some terrible calls/no-calls in the Clemson/Wake Forest game.

[jsc1953]

Just for grins, I took the playoff Top 25 teams with zero or 1 loss, and ranked them according to Best Win (highest current ranking of the teams they’ve beaten) and Best Loss (highest current ranking of the team they lost to).

Best Win:

1. Miss St (3 Auburn)
2. FSU (10 ND)
3. Baylor (6 TCU)
4. Oregon (8 Michigan State)
5. Auburn (11 Ole Miss)
6. Michigan State (13 Nebraska)
   7T. TCU, Kansas State (15 Oklahoma)
7. Arizona State (17 Utah)
8. Alabama (21 aTm)
9. Notre Dame (UR Stanford)
10. Nebraska none
11. Ohio State none

I put Notre Dame ahead of Nebraska and Ohio State because Stanford was ranked at the time of their game, although they’ve since tanked.

Best Loss:

1T Miss St, FSU (none)
3. Auburn (1 Miss St)
4. Notre Dame (2 FSU)
5. Kansas State (3 Auburn)
6. Michigan State (4 Oregon)
7. Nebraska (8 Michigan State)
8. Alabama (11 Ole Miss)
9. TCU (12 Baylor)
10. Arizona State (18 UCLA)
11. Oregon (19 Arizona)
12. Baylor (23 West Virginia)
13. Ohio State (UR Virginia Tech)

[jsc1953]

Then, if you average the two rankings:

1. Miss State (1)
2. Florida State (1.5)
3. Auburn (4)
   4T. K-State, Michigan State (6)
   6T. Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame (7.5)
4. TCU (8)
5. 'Bama (9)
   11T. ASU, Nebraska (9.5)
6. Ohio State (13)

[Nauplius]

@jsc1953

<snip>
Best Win:

1. Miss St (3 Auburn)
2. FSU (10 ND)
3. Baylor (6 TCU)
4. Oregon (8 Michigan State)
5. Auburn (11 Ole Miss)
6. Michigan State (13 Nebraska)
   7T. TCU, Kansas State (15 Oklahoma)
7. Arizona State (17 Utah)
8. Alabama (21 aTm)
9. Notre Dame (UR Stanford)
10. Nebraska none
11. Ohio State none

<snip>

Shouldn’t FSU be number 4? And why do you list A&M as the number 21 team?

[jsc1953]

@Nauplius

Shouldn’t FSU be number 4? And why do you list A&M as the number 21 team?

You’re absolutely right on both counts. The “21” next to A&M is because I got confused – that was their ranking when they got beat by Alabama (which I don’t care about – only care about current ranking). A&M should be shown as “UR”, like Stanford.

Neither error affects the average ranking on post #452, though.

[Nauplius]

@jsc1953

Neither error affects the average ranking on post #452, though.

Well it does change the average for Baylor and Oregon putting them ahead of Notre Dame.

[notfrommensa]

@jsc1953

Just for grins, I took the playoff Top 25 teams with zero or 1 loss, and ranked them according to Best Win (highest current ranking of the teams they’ve beaten) and Best Loss (highest current ranking of the team they lost to).

Best Win:

1. Miss St (3 Auburn)
2. FSU (10 ND)
3. Baylor (6 TCU)
4. Oregon (8 Michigan State)
   5. Auburn (11 Ole Miss)
5. Michigan State (13 Nebraska)
   7T. TCU, Kansas State (15 Oklahoma)
6. Arizona State (17 Utah)
7. Alabama (21 aTm)
8. Notre Dame (UR Stanford)
9. Nebraska none
10. Ohio State none

I put Notre Dame ahead of Nebraska and Ohio State because Stanford was ranked at the time of their game, although they’ve since tanked.

Best Loss:

1T Miss St, FSU (none)
3. Auburn (1 Miss St)
4. Notre Dame (2 FSU)
5. Kansas State (3 Auburn)
6. Michigan State (4 Oregon)
7. Nebraska (8 Michigan State)
8. Alabama (11 Ole Miss)
9. TCU (12 Baylor)
10. Arizona State (18 UCLA)
11. Oregon (19 Arizona)
12. Baylor (23 West Virginia)
13. Ohio State (UR Virginia Tech)

(emphasis mine)

If you are using Current Ranking, then Auburn’s best win is Kansas State.

[jsc1953]

OK, thanks for the audit! (seriously)
Here’s the completely bug-free version:

Best Win	

1 Miss St (3 Auburn)
2 Baylor (6 TCU)
3 Auburn (7 K State)
4 Oregon (8 Michigan State)
5 FSU (10 ND)
6 Michigan State (13 Nebraska)
7T TCU, Kansas State (15 Oklahoma)
9 Arizona State (17 Utah)
10 Alabama UR aTm
11 Notre Dame UR Stanford
12 Nebraska none
13 Ohio State none

Best Loss	

1T Miss St, FSU none
3 Auburn (1 Miss St)
4 Notre Dame (2 FSU)
5 Kansas State (3 Auburn)
6 Michigan State (4 Oregon)
7 Nebraska (8 Michigan State)
8 Alabama (11 Ole Miss)
9 TCU (12 Baylor)
10 Arizona State (18 UCLA)
11 Oregon (19 Arizona)
12 Baylor (23 West Virginia)
13 Ohio State UR Virginia Tech)

	Best Win	Best Loss	Avg

1 Miss St 1 1 1
2 FSU 4 1 2.5
3 Auburn 3 3 3
4T Kansas State 7 5 6
4T Michigan State 6 6 6
6T Oregon 3 11 7
6T Baylor 2 12 7
8 Notre Dame 11 4 7.5
9 TCU 7 9 8
10 Alabama 9 8 8.5
11 ASU 9 10 9.5
12 Nebraska 12 8 10
13 Ohio State 13 13 13

[jsc1953]

And we hereby see an example of that age-old conundrum, “how can Michigan State be ranked ahead of Oregon”? Because losing to Oregon is better than losing to Arizona, and computers are stupid.

(I’m rather pleased with myself. I think I’ll update this on Tuesday.)

[Doctor_Who]

Sigh. Those bastards have me right where they want me. All I can think when looking at jsc’s averaged rankings (which I find quite fascinating… good work) is…

Wouldn’t that make a great EIGHT-team playoff?

1 Miss State v. 8 Notre Dame
3 Auburn v. 6 Oregon

4 Kansas State v. 5 Michigan State
2 FSU v. 7 Baylor

[Doctor_Who]

I mean, hell, using the committee’s rankings:

1 Miss State v. 8 Michigan State
3 Auburn v. 6 TCU

4 Oregon v. 5 Alabama
2. FSU v. 7 Kansas State