The scariest thing about Manziel for me is that his “improvisation” seems to take the place of actually executing a gameplan. A great QB can improvise when required, but only does so when everything breaks down…a.k.a. Aaron Rodgers. Manziel looks like he “improvises” from the snap on some plays. Really tough for us amateurs to know when that’s happening, you need to know the scheme, play call and see the All-22 tape to really tell, but I’d like to see more examples of Manziel dissecting a defense on a 10 play drive where he works through progressions and forces leverage.
As **Hamlet **said, I guess that largely comes down to how much you like risk-aversion. If you could know for certain that, barring injury, there’s a guy who will be an average-ish (though unique) QB for at least 10 years, that does have value, if only because prospects don’t work that way: everyone has the potential to be a huge bust except this guy, so his expected value can be higher than someone with a real chance to be great.
OTOH, there’s an opportunity cost to locking yourself in (somewhat) to an average QB, right? I mean, the virtue of a bad QB is that you can just replace him and earn yourself another shot at finding a really good one.
Sure; I’d distinguish a Vick “type,” which is nearly sui generis, from Vick’s actual career in Real Earth-World Prime 2014, though. We’re comparing prospect Vick to prospect Manziel on the basis of their ridiculous physical talents, presumably.
My comparison to Geno was based on physical traits. Not game tape. I think Bridgewater is less gifted than Geno, and Geno is struggling on that front.
From a game tape perspective, you’re right on about Teddy being far ahead of Geno. But, I refer to physical traits as the first litmus test and game tape as the second. If a guy just doesn’t have the tools, I don’t care how good or bad he played against college teams.
I don’t think Bridgewater has the tools.
I think he’s a bust, you think he’s got a chance to be average. Even if you’re right I’d say his ceiling is just that, average. That says third round talent to me. By taking him in the back half of the first round, you’re basically saying he has a “franchise player” ceiling.
You do realize that those aren’t mutually exclusive right?
Great summary. And I think it dovetails with the Bridgewater debate. He’s less risky, but the opportunity cost of an average projection is too high. I’d rather bust out with a guy who has elite, but uncertain, potential.
I think you base the idea of elite potential too much simply with the physical traits, assuming that you can teach everything else. I think mental processing speed is as important or more than any physical trait, and can’t be coached to all that significant a degree. Having the game slow down for you, Neo in the Matrix style, is probably the best quality an NFL QB can have, and Bridgewater seems like he might have that skill.
He’s not grossly deficient at the measurables. His hands are small, but not freakishly so. He’s light for his size, but he’s tall, and he had a jaw surgery last year that probably affected his weight. He has about an average NFL arm, and while he’ll never excell at certain throws, he’s not incapable of any. He’s accurate with good ball placement, which is a physical skill, possibly more important than being able to put an extra 8 mph on the velocity of the ball.
You need both, but the mental aspects of QBs are underrated, I think, on the assumption that you can learn them rather than having them be an innate quality.
Gotcha. I prefer game tape and production to measureables.
I don’t think you understand what I’ve said. I think, right now, he’s an average NFL QB. If you draft him and stick him on your team, he’ll be able to be a Russell Wilson, an Andy Dalton, or any of the average NFL QB’s out there this year. But I also think he’s got the upside to be a top 10 QB. I don’t see him as ever being the best (or most physically impressive) QB, or even a top 5, in the NFL, but with such a high floor and a nice ceiling, I would have no problem drafting him in the second half of the first round.
Not following you.
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The Grantland article posted above even mentioned this about Bortles. Sure, he’s the only one of the projected top 4 or 5 QBs that has the physical measurables of a prototypical QB, but that shouldn’t be a major reason you draft him over another QB.
The mind sometimes boggles at the insistence of old school football types to draft Fabio.
Maybe, but I think it’s important to clarify that physical traits aren’t the only contributing factor to elite-ness in my view. Here’s my process for evaluating a 1st round draft selection, though it’s more accurate to call it a first tier selection because the difference between pick 32 and 33 is not that meaningful:
Step 1: Does he have the physical ability to be elite?
This is a yes or no question. He either does or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t, he’s off my board in the first round. Bortles is in, Manziel and Bridgewater are out. I define physical ability as height, weight, speed, quickness, strength, health, hands/arms.
These stats are easy to define. The art is in where you draw the line and there’s reasonable debate to be had about it. Also, I fully concede that there are elite players who will fall outside this criteria, but I view them as being so unpredictable that it’s not worth trying to rank them in this group.
Step 2: Does he have the skills to be elite?
This is not a yes or no question and it starts the ranking process. Some skills are very teachable and some are less teachable, and they are prioritized accordingly. I define skills as catching ability, passing accuracy, route running, hand technique, footwork, throwing motion, etc. Based on this composite I rank them.
This is a tough messy process. It’s based on the intersection of measurables, statistics and game tape. There will be guys who look more skilled but are less statistically productive. Also, there will be guys who are very low in a hard-to-teach skills who I might remove from the list entirely.
Step 3: Does he have the aptitude to succeed?
This further refines the rank. High aptitude guys are moved up over more skilled guys and vice versa. I define aptitude as things like ability to read a defense, experience in a pro-style setting, understanding of football concepts, gameplans and all that other stuff. Basically brains, vision and experience.
This is the hardest to gauge. It’s also the biggest factor in whether or not a player is successful. That said, the items in the previous two steps are how I define a players ceiling. While there are exceptions, a player with substandard physical traits and middling skills is unlikely to overcome them to be elite based solely on aptitude.
I agree, but that aspect defines where you fall on the spectrum, not how high your spectrum goes. High aptitude guys are safe, relatively predictable and have high floors, but in the first round I gotta have a guy who can win me games all by himself.
Ultimately that’s the disagreement. I think he’s grossly deficient to be elite. Not too deficient to be solid, but you can find solid in the later rounds.
I think its just lazy journalism. Writers and pundits, either in an attempt to inspire controversy or out of pure incompetence, make the logical fallacy that caring about measurables means you ONLY care about measurables, and that LIKING a guy relative to others means you LOVE him.
Of course, there are probably football people out there who make the same mistake.
What’s your definition of solid? Is it a guy you’re trying to replace every year, or a guy that you view as good enough to build around and get you somewhere? Would someone like Andy Dalton be smack dab in “solid” territory for you?
You make it sound too easy to find a solid QB, I think. Almost all QBs drafted after round 2 never start for more than a year or two in the NFL. The importance of the QB position has inflated the value of quarterbacks* that anyone who has the appearance of any sort of decent floor goes fairly high now. I question that you can get a starter in the second round or later now. Unless your definition of “solid” includes players that teams are only playing because they have no alternative and want to replace at the first opportunity, it’s not so easy to find one.
- And not incorrectly in my view. In recent years we’ve had a rash of guys getting drafted too high because they’re QBs and conventional wisdom says they should be 2nd or 3rd rounders. But I think this doesn’t recognize the real value of the QB position. Finding an above average quarterback when you don’t have one can completely make and break your team in a way that no other position even comes close to. If you think someone can be that guy, their value becomes extremely high. Just like you wouldn’t generally take even a great guard or tight end in the top half fo the first round due to positional value, the positional value of the QB is so great that you’re justified in taking what otherwise might be 2nd+ round talents in the early first round if there are no viable alternatives.
If it’s so unpredictable, such that there are guys like Drew Brees who don’t have these “elite” physical skills you think are decisive, yet are nonetheless elite QBs, then it seems like a questionable criterion.
There doesn’t seem to be much correlation between QB productivity and height.
Looking at all the starting QBs in the league ( I have excluded some who are out of a job most likely), the odds of getting one anywhere other than round 1 or 2 is low.
Aaron Rodgers - 1st round
Jay Cutler - 1st round
Matt Stafford - 1st round
Drew Brees - 2nd round
Matt Ryan - 1st round
Cam Newton - 1st round
Tony Romo - Undrafted
Eli Manning - 1st round
RGIII - 1st round
Nick Foles - 3rd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Colin Kaepernik - 2nd round
Sam Bradford - 1st round
Carson Palmer - 1st round
Peyton Manning - 1st round
Philip Rivers - 1st round
Alex Smith - 1st round
Joe Flacco - 1st round
Ben Roethlisberger -1st round
Andy Dalton - 2nd round
Tom Brady - 7th round
Geno Smith - 2nd round
Ryan Tannehill - 1st round
EJ Manuel - 1st round
Andrew Luck - 1st round
Note that Drew Brees also had a poor pro day. Not that Bridgewater is a Drew Brees waiting for his turn, but the lack of measurables and relatively poor pro day are the objective knocks on him and neither is actually a strong argument based on history.
How many elite QBs come out of any draft? The average is less than 1. But plenty of solid everyday players do make it. To mix sports metaphors, the real problem is trying to hit a home run every time when a solid double may be all you can reasonably expect.
Andy Dalton would be the very bottom of what I’d consider calling solid, but then again I think he’s really holding that team back. Russell Wilson is probably the top of what I’d call solid, at least based on a small sample size. Matt Schaub before the wheels came off what basically the definition of solid. Cutler, Romo, Eli are probably best described as solid right now.
So no, not guys you’re looking to replace every year, but not guys you’re generally willing to pay franchise money too. QB is a bad example since those last 3 guys are paid like they are elite but for better or worse they are being paid on potential/past performance.
At other positions its clearer. Megatron, Marshall, AJ Green are elite, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon and Jeremy Maclin are solid.
You can win with solid, but I don’t think you are winning championships if you build around a guy who’s maxed out at solid.
I think you’re right. QB is just a weird example. Salaries and draft positions are inflated and you need to adjust expectations and metrics accordingly.
But as merely solid as those guys are, the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants wouldn’t think of letting them go with hopes of striking it rich in the draft, unless they had made the decision to scrap and rebuild. You can build a winning team around a solid QB, so any one of those guys would be snapped up in free agency and command franchise money.
I think there is a problem with causation in this. Of course guys who get selected in the first round are going to be starters. That’s what they are selected for, and why it’s in the first round. Blaine Gabbert, Vince Young, Josh Freeman were all starters for their teams, sometimes for years, yet shouldn’t be considered any great shakes at the QB position. In your list, for example, I’d take out Manuel, Tannehill, Smith, Dalton, and Bradford, who are all starters simply because they were drafted so high.
And some guys (cough Jay Cutler cough cough Joe Flacco cough) will remain starters because they still have “upside” and are better than the other garbage teams have at the position.
Of course there are unsuccessful first rounders, the point isn’t that a first rounder is successful, but that you are unlikely to find a franchise quarterback outside of the first round. You can take out the iffy prospects if you like it doesn’t change that point (Wilson, Brady, Romo).
I’m baffled as to the opinions on Bridgewater in this thread. If you think he’s accurate or works through his progressions well (each said at least twice in this thread), you need to immediately watch his Cincinnati game. And then his Rutgers game. He’s far from accurate and he’s rarely, if ever, asked to work through to a second progression (I can’t remember if he throws to a second progression even once vs. Cincy). His inconsistent, mediocre mechanics lead him to be scattershot often, and because he doesn’t step into his throws and drive the ball downfield, his throws lack zip and his downfield throws routinely fall short. I have serious doubts as to whether he can make throws at the pro level because he’s an arm thrower (very little shoulder torque, no leg drive) with a below average to average arm. This is why I mentioned his inflated completion percentage upthread - I think it’s a function of the offense more than his skill. He’s simply not accurate in the games I’ve watched.
His dropbacks aren’t crisp, some are too casual. He’s rarely ever ready to fire at the top of his drop and often hops into his throws which puts him a half-second behind the ideal release time. Because of this, he also has a below average firing platform, and as mentioned above, throws entirely with his arm too much. His release point drops from time to time and his passes sail, especially on the run. I have seen some god awful throws from him (Rutgers, 9:42, one of the worst passes I’ve ever seen, and 5:38, where he underthrows a deep pass by 15 yards).
Against Cincinnati, almost every attempt had but a single option. Against Rutgers it was well over half. He’s asked to roll out of the pocket a lot, which is especially bizarre because he’s inconsistent at throwing on the move, notably to his left. He doesn’t always square himself downfield, and this leads to some poor throws. He’s better to his right (as most right handers are), but he also doesn’t always keep his head up and scrambles more often than I’d like to see from a non-runner. I think he’s lowering his eye level on rollouts too much and scrambling when he has room to make a throw, but the limited camera angle doesn’t give me much to work with downfield.
I don’t see a lot of NFL skills here. He doesn’t have a strong arm. He isn’t pinpoint accurate. I only ever saw him negotiate a defense with a shoulder fake or a pump fake in one game. He’s inconsistent at choosing the right throw at the right time, which hints that he doesn’t have command of the QB toolbox.
Bottom line for me, most of his issues are coachable, but it takes time. Some issues I don’t think he can fix. How you throw a football is a fundamental skill. You can teach it. But after so long, even all the coaching in the world can’t do much when the game starts and instinct and habit take back over (see Tebow, Tim). This leads me to believe that he will fail if asked to be a first year starter. That explains the drop in his mock drafts (assuming these are done with some knowledge of teams’ thinking). Teams don’t want to take Teddy so high as to force him into being a day one starter. Which is also why I don’t think Bortles goes high either, but that’s a guess based off of zero scouting of my own.
If you remember, I said the same thing about Geno Smith last year. If you had listened to me (toot toot), you would not have been shocked that EJ Manuel went so early and Smith so much later (when almost zero mocks even had Manuel in the first round).
If Bridgewater goes in round two, to a dome team, his ceiling is an average NFL starter. Otherwise, assuming round one or to an outdoor team, I think he’s a career backup.
You’ve made a critical error here. Firstly, UConn was by no measure that I can find the #9 defense in the country. What metric are you using here? Because they were average in passing yards allowed (93rd), yards per attempt allowed (83rd), points per game allowed (80th), and all three adjusted for opponent made them look even worse.
The critical error you seem to have made is you let your interpretation of the quality of UConn’s defense color your evaluation. Bridgewater looked better against UConn than the other games I watched (random opponents), but I still think he looked adequate at best. It seems as though you took an average performance and gave it a boost for a tough defense, which UConn was not.
Draft Breakdown is amazing, but you also have to watch multiple games to get a clear idea of what a guy can do. The other problem is that we can’t see with this site what a QB does pre-snap. Bridgewater rarely throws to a second read from what I’ve seen, but maybe he’s really good at reading a defense pre-snap and knows where to go.
Teddy is fascinating, because I don’t remember such gaudy statistics ever being so disparate to what I saw in my evaluation. Excited to see how he does in the pros.