From here. I see now that those rankings are from last year. :smack:
I gave times in the video that illustrated exactly why I concluded what he could and couldn’t do. U. Conn’s defense may have been much worse than I thought, but I don’t think that makes the specific points I made that much different. They were about him and his play, not the U. Conn defense.
Here’s my take on the Cincinnati game:
At :10 second, he sees the strong side linebacker blitz, leaving an opening for the slant to the WR, who he hits in the hands and who takes it in for a TD. Good read, good throw, great result (although much of it was YAC).
At :28, he rolls out, hits the open wide receiver with a nice pass. It seems like a good throw, done on the move, with nice arm strength.
:35, he climbs the pocket, doesn’t see anyone open, doesn’t force it and scrambles for a first down. The replay shows his outside receivers were covered, they had safety help inside, and he didn’t force it. Maybe you want him to throw it into coverage, but I’m more than happy that he didn’t make a mistake and ran for a first down.
1:00 Another roll out, everyone covered, he throws it low and away. Definitely not a good throw, because the defender got his hand on it.
1:17 He stands in the pocket with good protection, keeps his eyes downfield, not seeing anything, he checks down. Another not great throw, it was too low, but also out of reach of defenders.
1:30 Escapes the DE, forced outside, misses a guy. Another bad throw.
1:40 WR drops the pass. Looks like the ball got there quicker than he thought it would.
1:50 Pressure again, keeps looking downfield, doesn’t see anything, gets outside the tackles and throws it away.
At this point, my take is that the defense is rushing 4 and playing coverage. I don’t know, without the All-22, if Teddy is missing wide open guys, but from what I can see, he’s keeping his eyes downfield, and not making stupid throws. YMMV.
2:04 Seven defenders on the line, disguising another 4 man rush. He waits for the under crossing route to take one of the man coverage, and zips the ball to the open receiver for a first down.
2:20 Play action roll out to the opposite side, he’s chased by a defender, but squares his shoulders and throws. Nowhere near a perfect throw, and I can’t tell whether the WR dropped it or the defender got a hand on it. Not a great throw.
2:37 Seven man rush. Untouched guy sacks him before he can throw.
2:45 6 yard hook route. Makes the throw.
2:55 Four man rush, safety help down the field, he stays in the pocket, moving up in it a bit, and hits his dump off guy for a first down.
Another out route, another completion. At the end of the half, he throws his only interception of the game when his WR slips and falls.
The second half is much like the first. A ton of quick outs and hitches (he does take a couple shots down the field though), but those are staples in the NFL and he can make those throws. He clearly misses a TD pass on an open receiver at 5:05, makes a horrible pass that should have been picked at 7:40, a great run on 4th down at 9:25, and a dumbass TD pass at 9:45 that shows, I think, his ability to move in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. I would never want him to fling it like that in the NFL, but it shows that he goes through his progressions (he clearly checks off the WR on the left side of the field before throwing it deep), and keeps his eyes downfield, even under pressure. But I’d kill him if he pulled that crap in the NFL. He then makes a few more throws to help take his team down the field to take the lead in the game.
You’re right … to a point. That game was clearly not his best. He missed a few throws, made a couple bad decisions. But I also saw that he has an NFL caliber arm, that he moves well in the pocket, and he’s smart enough to take what the defense gives him. And he definitely needs, as I said before, more accuracy on his deep throws.
But I think you’re completely wrong about him not going through his progressions and only throwing to his first and only option. There were many passes where he looks off his first guy and throws somewhere else. At :24, he has two options on the rollout and picks the one further upfield. At :33, he looks off his first option, looks to his dump off guy who wasn’t turning around, and then runs it. At 1:00, he clearly hitches to throw, but changes his mind and dumps it (poorly) off. At 1:20, he looks downfield, moves his head, then checks it down. At 1:40, he’s looking at the middle of the field, then checks to his right to his second option. At 2:07, he looks first to the crosser, then hits the open guy in the gap in the zone. Stuff like that goes on all game.
He clearly makes more than one read and does so often. And he clearly knows how to run the offense, find the guy sitting in the zone, and can get the ball there quickly.
Teddy Bridgewater is not without his flaws, and you’re right that the Cincinnati game shows some of them. But you’re also selling him way short if you conclude he only throws to his first option or that he’s simply a statistical machine. There are reasons many of the “experts” continue to praise his “film” and explain his drop due to physical concerns.
Looks like he’s considering 2nd and 3rd options a bunch in the Cincy game, to me. It’s usually more subtle than “look at the left sideline, turn, look at the right sideline,” but there are a few really obvious ones as well.
The Cincinnati game wasn’t so great for him – he missed several throws – but OTOH Louisville had horrible protection problems, and they won the game in large part because he handled the pressure well. Also thought he looked pretty good in the Rutgers game.
Those two videos do, however, reinforce the impression that his deep balls are a real adventure. Very few of the ones I’ve seen him throw have been “good,” and an awful lot of them weren’t even “acceptable.”
I don’t see how anyone can not say that Dalton isn’t solid. A QB that’s led his team to the playoffs three years in a row and has statistically improved markedly over the course of those three years isn’t solid?
I’ll grant that Dalton has been horrible in the playoffs, but so has the whole team. The organization as a whole suffers from some weird inability to play well when the lights are brightest, and that’s from Marvin Lewis on down, not solely Andy Dalton.
You don’t throw for over 4,200 yards, 33 TD’s to 20 INT’s, a completion percentage of 62% and a QB rating of 88.8 by being bad. It’s the very definition of solid.
Part of it was to tweak you, but, to me, a big part of being “solid” is … well being solid. Consistent.
Yes Dalton had a 88.8 passer rating last year. He also had individual games with passer ratings of 58.2, 55.4, 52.2, 62.7, 62.2, and 67 in the playoff game. He’s horribly inconsistent, which, to me, kinda means he’s not solid.
Not being solid doesn’t mean you can’t win a championship. Just ask Joe Flacco or Eli Manning.
Thanks for checking that Cincy game out, Hamlet and Varlos. I appreciate the dissenting opinion, this has become an interesting conversation. Hamlet, I’ll tackle your interpretations of the plays because we have some wildly different views on the same plays, which is awesome.
(This is fascinating from the get go. I love this. There’s a LOT happening on this play)
I completely disagree with your interpretation here for a few reasons. First, Teddy’s drop betrays that he has no intention of making a throw beyond the very first person he sees. Several times throughout the game he has a one step backpedal drop, and they all result in a quick hit pass with no read. You can argue that he recognizes the LB blitz pre-snap, but I think that’s unlikely based on the game scenario (early, no in game film or adjustments yet), and the pre-snap LB position (5 yards off the line, not showing blitz). Calling this play a good read is indefensible to me.
Now here’s the interesting part: I actually think Teddy screwed this play up, even though it was a touchdown. If you go back, this was the perfect defensive play call. The near side CB (from the video perspective) plays off, daring his man to run a short route. Why? Because the non-blitzing LB is covering the underneath route from the snap. He actually runs right in the path of the pass, the perfect defense, but because he’s a step slow, he misses the easy pick six. Bridgewater never sees this guy going underneath. In the pros, this is an easy INT and likely TD. Bridgewater probably should have hit the RB on the flat where there’s no defender within 20 yards to make a play. He never sees it.
After that, Bridgewater makes a pretty good throw, but from there, the linebacker misses the pick and runs himself out of the play, the corner falls down, and the safety takes the worst possible angle on the tackle. This play ended up so much better than it had any right to be. I’m not giving Teddy any credit on this one other than a fine throw. He doesn’t read anything and gets bailed out by three defenders messing up.
Agreed, nothing wrong here. But I’d like to mention something about designed rollouts.
Rollouts are designed to cut the field in half, limit the number of routes, and run routes to open up on the side of the field of the rollout. There’s very little reading going on for these plays. You have at most two guys who you could possibly throw to because the others are running dummy routes on the far side to draw defenders and stretch the field. There isn’t any progression at all because the routes open at the same time, in the same rough area. Just throw it when someone in front of you is open. For these reasons, I’m looking at mechanics on these plays. I’m not giving credit for reading a defense when you run a play which gives you one or two guys to throw to.
Again, I see something else. From the snap, his far side outside route is open if he’s decisive, which he either isn’t, or he doesn’t see it. Maybe too risky with a defender five yards off, which is fine. But, as he pulls the ball down, his RB hits the middle of the zone and is wide open. Behind the RB, his WR is coming back to the ball and has a five yard cushion at the first down marker, also wide open. At this point, Bridgewater’s eyes have dropped and he’s running.
This is a problem because Bridgewater isn’t a runner. He isn’t elusive, he has no burst, and he lacks instincts in the open field. I want players like that running as little as possible. Every time he does this, he’s limiting the chances for success. The end result works really well in this one case, but this is a play that, over a season, is going to really hurt the team’s success. He isn’t built to play this way.
This is a terrible throw and an even worse decision. There’s no “low and away” about this. He threw it right at the defender. This should have been a pick, and with the defender’s momentum towards the end zone and a blocker in front, this is a TD. Teddy got bailed out again.
This play is a major deduction from his awareness. This play was much, much worse than what you saw.
This is an example of working through progressions that I missed when I initially reviewed the game. Credit here, but the throw is pretty bad. It’s bad because of his release point, by the way, which is something that happens to him a lot.
This is a nice recovery to an early rush in his face. Bridgewater has pretty good functional mobility in the pocket area. It helps that it’s yet another designed rollout. The problem here is that he doesn’t square up, his mechanics falter, and he makes a horrible throw when he has a guy wide open beyond the first down line.
I’ll note here that this would have been an easy completion had Bridgewater not double clutched the ball and taken two extra hops in the pocket before firing. These mechanic breakdowns are alarming, even if it should have been a completion anyway.
If you want to credit him with a progression read here, fine, but I’d argue he’s looking off the Mike to make sure his target isn’t being undercut.
This seems like a smart play, except that he takes an unnecessary hit with no protection for how he lands. Very dangerous in the NFL. Not sure he could have done much better though.
Notice how in this play, with a blitz look, Bridgewater takes a full drop. This illustrates why the first attempt wasn’t a read. Bridgewater shouldn’t have had the time for a full drop here. But he shows good patience, good pocket mobility, and makes the right throw. Strong play.
I really dislike this decision. It’s 1st and 10 on the 22. This is a horrible decision to fire off a pass you can’t get enough pepper on because you’re rolling to your offhand, targeting a covered receiver.
If Bridgewater is reading defenses, which he isn’t right here, he doesn’t try the little shoulder pump at the worst possible time, leading directly to a sack because he’s not ready to throw under pressure. Not a big mark down though because it’s an all out blitz he just completely doesn’t see.
Note his dropback here. Three steps, ready to throw at the top, in rhythm, steps into his throw and fires. This throw should show you why his mechanics are so inconsistent, because this is how it should be. It very rarely is.
I have to take exception to this. I think you’re looking at the wrong stuff here. There are dozens of QBs every year who can come into the NFL and hit slants and hitches and flats and complete 75% of them. Making these throws shows me almost nothing because that’s an almost impossible way to run an offense nowadays. What makes an NFL QB are the intermediate throws and the deep throws. If you want to give Bridgewater credit for being able to complete the easiest passes, by all means. But all you’ll find in your evaluations are a bunch of Checkdown Charlies.
The missed TD is an egregious example of poor mechanics. No real pressure to speak of and he overthrows a wide open guy because he’s not balanced and he’s relying too much on arm to make downfield throws.
You missed the throw at 9:35, which is a dreadful miss. His footwork fails on a rollout to his left and he sails a very simple five yard out. This is an atrocious throw. This is why he’s not as accurate as his numbers suggest.
Going back to that touchdown, it’s a remarkable play. I don’t even know how to evaluate this. I can’t imagine he saw his receiver open in the half second he was facing downfield. I’m tempted to say, down by 4 with 8 minutes left in the game, I think this was a prayer. I just can’t say. In my notes, I didn’t even really mark anything down, pro or con. It’s an odd play for someone who generally is a pocket passer that relies on methodical drives for scores.
I’ll admit there’s a lot more progression here than I initially saw. I exaggerated in my previous post. I will say that it seems like a lot of what’s being marked as a progression is looking off the Mike or safety. But I’m willing to concede this point for the most part.
I think he missed a lot more throws than you’re mentioning, and I think he missed potential throws a few times too. I mean, I don’t see a lot that translates to the pros in this game. I don’t see many, if any, pro level throws. One of the reasons I said on this forum that Cam Newton wouldn’t bust was because he routinely made bigtime, Pro-level throws. I don’t see any from Bridgewater.
Let’s reel this debate back in though. The question isn’t, “Is Teddy Bridgewater good?” We all know he is. The question was, “Why is his stock falling?” I think every game mentioned so far illustrates why, to some degree. I came into this discussion wondering the same thing, how could he fall seemingly so far? Now after research, I get it. I don’t see a Pro Bowl ceiling from him. I don’t see NFL throws. I don’t see anything from him that you can’t also get much later in the draft and coach up. At least then you’ll invest fewer resources, reduce the pressure to start on day one, and get more physical upside.
I still don’t see all that failure in Bridgewater. I see a guy with very good talent working in his system. And I think he will take to true Pro-style coaching very well. I think a year or two on the bench to learn, and his upside is the highest. As opposed to Manziel who will probably be the best he ever is on day one, before the injuries start to pile up and take a toll, and gets pouty when you try to control his instincts.
If you have to have a day one starter, ok get Manziel and have asses in the seat for two years. But otherwise I like Bridgewater long term.
Interesting analysis, Jules. I’m not going to go point by point on the issues we differ, but only hit some highlights.
Going a bit strong, aren’t you? I suppose it’s possible he just closed his eyes and threw the ball, but, to me, the fact he threw it in the spot the blitzing linebacker left and threw it quickly and with speed so that the other linebacker had no legitimate chance, and he completes it for a td, all show that it wasn’t just a lucky guess on his part.
Ah, the old “let him throw it to a recently vacated spot before the other defender can get there and let him go for a TD” play call.
It is fascinating that two people can see the same play so differently, but neither you, nor I, can get in his mind and determine that he never saw the defender, or that he make a terrific read and a great pass. Neither stance is “indefensible”.
That’s not the purpose of the rollout at all. It’s not a crutch to hamper the offense and limit them to half a field at all. It’s to slow down the pass rush, to be unpredictable, and to give the QB space. Yes, it does have the effect of generally limiting the number of receivers (as I pointed out, he had two options, and picked one), but, especially in that game, they were used to escape the pass rush and get Teddy on the move, not to kowtow to his mental limitations.
We’ll disagree on this too. Yes, he has a longer release than I’d like, but I think you’re seriously overstating the problems with his “mechanics”. There isn’t a QB in this draft (maybe Murray) with better mechanics. Bortles, Savage, and Manziel are laughable compared to Bridgewater. Yes, he’s not perfect. Yes, he’s not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Yes, he needs more coaching and fine tuning (he’s too much of an arm thrower and his deep balls need work), but he’s not a mechanical failure like you seem to portray him.
“Footwork is very clean and in rhythm – throws on balance with sound mechanics, a fluid delivery and smooth stroke.” NFL.com
“Shows very good weight distribution and passing mechanics. Steps into the face of pressure and delivers, showing admirable toughness on each snap to bounce back after big hits.” CBSSportsline.com
“Mechanically, there’s nothing that really beguiles Bridgewater on a consistent basis — he’s generally decisive, he has a very quick overhand release (used to have a problem with sidearm, but he’s clearly working on it) and he uses his lower body to gain velocity. Even when he’s throwing off-angle from weird spots, he’s trained himself to keep proper mechanics, which is something you can’t yet say about Johnny Manziel.” SI.com
I could go on, but by my eyes, and theirs, he’s got pretty damn good “mechanics”.
That wasn’t the question I was answering. But his stock is falling because anyone who had him in the top 15 had him overrated. I don’t think it can be considered “falling” when he may be drafted where he should.
Yeah, it’s impossible to judge a quarterback’s reads when you don’t have any way to know what read he’s making. He could have been coached to look for a particular route against a particular defense, and the defensive coordinator could have outfoxed his own coach, or he could make a bad read that he wasn’t supposed to be looking for and the defense could still blow the assignment. There’s no reliable way to look at decision-making when it comes to individual plays, unless it’s a throw right to a defensive player, simply because you don’t know what he’s supposed to be doing.
There was an interesting example of that with Manziel. He got criticized a bunch for not going through his progressions and looking for the home run ball all the time. So an analyst would look at tape and say look, see this crossing route here that he’s ignoring, and then doesn’t find until it’s too late? But it turned out that A&M’s progression went deep first, then shorter routes. So Manziel was making the proper reads and getting dinged for it until it came out that they had an unorthodox progression as part of their scheme.
**garygnu **doesn’t want to hear about quarterbacks, though, so: I’ve seen multiple mocks that give the Eagles Marqise Lee, which is really easy to love, but I’ve also seen at least one person saying Barr is falling down into that territory, which is terrifying and I want it to happen anyway. I’ve almost never felt like the spot where the Eagles were picking was the best spot to be picking. Is it just me or is there something for everyone in the second half of the first round this year? Seems like every team gets to really fill a need one way or another, except the dummies.
Interesting post, Jules, though I don’t have time to go back and readjudicate the whole game. (Ok, that’s not true, but I’m still not gonna do it.) I did want to take another look at that first TD pass, though.
Ehh. It is possible that this play is an example of “bad process, good result,” that Bridgewater merely benefited from the fact that the LB he never saw happened to be a step slow. However, I think that’s an unduly harsh assumption. He had to get rid of the ball quickly, his receiver came open, and Bridgewater threw an accurate pass that got there before the defender did. I’m not going to ding him for the fact that he had to throw into a tight window for the play to be successful.
In fact, if I *really *wanted to praise Bridgewater, I’d point out that his throw led the receiver (who had come to a standstill) in the exact direction he’d need to go to pick up the most YAC. It likely that this is a happy accident, but good QBs do, in fact, do this all the time.
Speaking of guards, I feel bad for Brandon Thomas, who makes it through a nice senior season, and ends up tearing his ACL during a private workout for the Saints. Ouch.
Can’t really understand the mocks I’ve read that have the Browns taking an OT. They need a guard, for one thing. But I can’t fathom them plowing even more money into that unit when they have so many other needs.
Actually, I probably should watch some anyway, since most mocks now have the Giants taking Zach Martin at 12. That wouldn’t be awful since they do need help on the line, but I’d rather see them take Ebron or especially Mosely.
Seriously, look at the LBs on the Giants roster. That’s got to be the worst group in the league, and it’s been like that for five years. They were terrible last year and they actually managed to get *worse *in the offseason because Keith Rivers left (and it’s not like Rivers was tearing up the league; he was “fine,” yet was still pretty easily the best LB they had). The front office has just decided that they don’t care about the position – consequently, they get eaten alive by athletic TEs, pass catching RBs, and scrambling QBs.
Since we’re getting punchy, let me add that not having seen an ounce of tape, and not doing a bit of research, I really like Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. He’s the Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman in Canada and played at McGill University.
He’s also a 4.0 student in faculty of medicine, is set to become a doctor and wants to study the effect and possible solution to the concussion/head trauma problems in football. How cool is that?
I appreciate all the discussion of Bridgewater - I’ve been looking for specific criticisms and lacking for them. I’m tempted to go in and watch all his games myself - but then I realize that seems a bit silly to do at this point, considering I’ll know in a few hours whether or not he’s going to be drafted by my team.
