I’m pretty sure that Nyquist won’t win it. I don’t like his Beyers, and his breeding, E2 and late pace figs indicate he won’t get the distance. I wouldn’t be shocked if doesn’t even hit the tri.
I like Gun Runner, Destin, and Exaggerator. Could be bombs away. I’m guessing the trifecta pays better than 10 grand.
I haven’t kept up in the last year, so your analysis is as good as any. I will try to watch the race next Saturday, a legacy of my horsy childhood.
For a horse who everyone presumes will be the favorite, I can scarcely find anyone who actually thinks he’ll win. Maybe Steve Haskin over at Bloodhorse.com is the only one. This has the feel of a year where the expected favorite doesn’t go off favored.
As for myself, I have liked both Exaggerator and Whitmore since last year. I may key both of them. Destin could win by 5 or lose by 25, and I will be equally unsurprised either way. Gun Runner should run his race and be in contention coming out of the turn - his speed figures so far haven’t been fast enough, but his running style is good for the race.
Agree. I like Whitmore, too, and will have him in my tri and super. Plus, he seems to be getting some stable buzz.
I think Suddenbreakingnews is the best of the closers for 1-1/4 miles, though.
Andy Serling from NYRA likes Destin, My Man Sam, Nyquist (in exotics, not as a good bet at the likely odds), and Whitmore. So I went ahead and placed a win bet on all but Nyquist. Not sure what I’m going to do in the exotics yet. Anyone want to share their thoughts now that we’re a few hours out?
The winner will come from this group:
2 Suddenbreakingnews
3 Creator
5 Gun Runner
9 Destin
I say Gun Runner.
The second tier, for place or show:
11 Exaggerator
13 Nyquist
15 Outwork
The third tier, if you need a few more for the bottom of the superfecta:
10 Majesto
17 Mor Spirit
18 Whitmore
A $1 exacta box with my top 4 plus Nyquist with cost you $20, and will probably pay $40 - $400 if it hits. You could box 6 horses for $30.
My prime bet was a box of:
Suddenbreakingnews
Destin
Whitmore
Exaggerator
It’s Nyquist!
This race used to be chaos personified. Between 1980 and 1999, not a single favorite won.
Nyquist is the 4th straight winning favorite. Not only that, unless the odds changed at the last moment the first 4 finishers were the first 4 favorites - in order.
Nice race, Nyquist did a good come from behind, and Exaggerator almost had him, but man, Danzig Candy just faded away.
Nyquist’s people need to be afraid of Exaggerator in a longer race.
Nyquist wasn’t really come from behind. He was just off the pace the whole race. Exaggerator came from way way behind. I agree that the Belmont might suit him.
Nyquist was my pick, though, it was a tepid one. He just seemed to so relaxed. He didn’t strike me as a horse that was eager to run. Turns out, he had good reason to relax! He’s a frood who knows where his towel is.
That was a fast pace, too - 2:01. It’s faster than Pharaoh’s 2:03. He seemed relaxed after the race, too. What a nice horse.
Got lucky and hit the trifecta. With a $2 box, that meant a net win of about $160. Total for the day was about $130.
Congrats!