Kentucky Derby analysis

The Game Room
1

This is what I sent co-workers and friends about the Derby:

Subject: Long-awaited, yet unsatisfyingly short, Derby discussion

Here we go for 2008, listed in order of preference:

BIG BROWN is a horse for whom one can list a negative for every positive. He’s the fastest horse in the field on speed figures, but he only has 3 lifetime races - and amount of inexperience that has done in many equally-talented horses in past years, including Curlin last year. His far outside post ensures he won’t get trapped behind horses, but he is nearly certain to lose significant ground on the turns. His Florida Derby was a tour de force in which he had to run crazy fast early fractions in order to get position early at a track where the gate is positioned very close to the first turn, but horses who use so much early energy, as he does, are usually toast in the Churchill stretch.

I could go on. However, since he is unequivocally the best horse, I make him about 2-1 to overcome his negatives and win the Derby. But, that leaves a two in three chance the winner will be someone else.

My top “someone else” selection is Z FORTUNE. Before the last few years, Derby winners followed a fairly regular pattern: Moderate - or no – races early as a two-year-old, with improvement late in the year, followed by a series of generally improving races topped by a career-best effort in the race before the Derby. Only two horses fit that her, Z Fortune and Smooth Air, but the latter entrant was sick last weekend and isn’t as fast as Z Fortune anyway. Z Fortune’s last effort from a tough post, in a race where he was the only closer to make up any ground, points to him as the best value in the race (about 15-1).

DENIS OF CORK is my third choice. He was unbeaten and looked like a top contender before an inexplicably dull effort in the Illinois Derby. However, his training at Churchill is strong and suggests that he could easily bounce back. Disclaimer: I have $5 on him in the Derby Future Book at 46-1, so this could be influenced by wishful thinking.

PYRO and VISIONAIRE round out my top five. PYRO beat both Z FORTUNE and VISIONAIRE in a race where all three overcame a slow pace in the Risen Star. If his last was due to his dislike for the artificial surface at Keeneland, and not a loss of form, he’s tough. VISIONAIRE also was beaten at Keeneland, but his race was sneakily good as he was way behind early, and finished well but couldn’t make up too much ground on the leaders because the late fractions of the race were rather fast. He should get a more suitable pace Saturday, and his trainer won 2 years ago with Barbaro.

Next choices:

Colonel John – Talented, but will be low odds trying a regular dirt surface for the first time, with unexceptional speed figures.

Cowboy Cal – No dirt form, but bred for it and might hang on to finish close.

Tale Of Ekati – Some speed figure makers gave his prep a big number. I don’t agree, so he fits here.

Court Vision - Plodding type worked much better with blinkers added. Would not be a shock, but he’s been too slow in his career so far and will be lower odds than I’d consider fair.

Z Humor – The only huge longshot I would consider, mostly because there are excuses for his mediocre efforts in all three races this year. He’ll be 60-1 and I will use him at those odds.

Monba – Bred to love the distance, and may have run a better race than Colonel John in the Futurity last year, where he closed well after being stuck in traffic for much of the race. Reportedly doesn’t look so good during workouts – otherwise I would definitely have him higher.
Comments on 2 I haven’t mentioned above: GAYEGO beat my #2 selection in the Arkansas Derby, but I just can’t see him getting a favorable trip from Post #19 with all the other speed around him. EIGHT BELLES has good form, but I believe she has a “pace weakness” as she has raced exclusively in fields that went very slowly in the middle of the race. Saturday will be different, and I think she’ll be further back than her norm.

That is all. Best of luck!

2

The mint is juleping and I’m waiting for the coverage to start. I’ll decide who I’m rooting for when we learn which horses are owned by celebrities I hate and which are owned by families with little girls with Leukemia who just want their pony to win. :wink:

3

I didn’t bet much this year.

Here’s my long shot bet.

1 Pyro
2. Colonel John
3. Big Brown

2 dollar trifecta.

4

First winner from the 20th post in nearly 80 years. Wow. And it wasn’t even close.

As amazing as that was, I’m actually more impressed that he was the #1 favorites. Top favorites have been less than stellar here, to say the least (what the hell happened to Arazi??). Anyone know who the last one to win this race was?

5

First winner from 20th post in a long time, yes, but the 20th post is rarely used. Post #1 is always used–anything after about 16, notsomuch.

DKW, heh, the last time the racetime favorite won was…last year with Street Sense. :wink: Before that, it was 2004’s Smarty Jones (2006 winner Barbaro was 2nd choice by just a few pennies), and before that, 2000’s Fusaichi Pegasus. But–FuPeg was the first Derby favorite to win since 1979’s Spectacular Bid.

Handicapping this race–especially now that they do have a betting field option–is a nightmare. Might as well throw a dart at a list of names and see where it lands. I threw out Big Brown because he was so green and so inexperienced–certainly the most talented horse speed-figure wise, but for something like the Derby he was a big question mark. Emotionally, I rooted for him, but when it came down to handicapping his odds were just too short in consideration of all of the unknowns.

My picks were 2nd ( :frowning: Eight Belles) and 5th–I thought Recapturetheglory was a HUGE overlay at 47-1. His fractious behavior made me nervous, but I’m all the more impressed he stayed in there with the best through the stretch. Still picked up a $60,000 paycheck for his owners, at least. 10 furlongs seems a bit much for him, but I bet 9 are right up his alley.

FTR–I don’t gamble. I handicap purely for the fun of trying to pick winners. I’m much better at the Breeder’s Cup events–the Derby really is as close to a dice game as racing gets.

6

We had a few folks over and just bought squares. Didn’t take a genius to pick Big Brown with my first pick.

Anyone else catch the postrace interviews with the trainer? We had the volume off, but among the crowd surrounding the trainer, there was one teenaged girl directly in front of the trainer such that she was in the right front corner of the shot. And all of the time the camera was on her, she was chewing her gum with her mouth open, even moving the gum around in her mouth such that it showed. When they broke away to another shot and came back to the trainer, I assumed someone would have told her to keep her mouth shut, but no! She started grinning and chomping away.

Surely I’m not the only person to have noticed this? Anyone know who this girl is? And is there any segment of our society that would consider her display anything other than horribly embarrassing?

7

I don’t follow horse racing, but I was very saddened to hear about Eight Belles. The wiki article says PETA is claiming the jockey might be at fault. How is that possible? Wouldn’t it be the trainer (breeder?) if anybody? Doesn’t the jockey just ride, and don’t horses even change jockeys within a season?

Anyone under 25 who doesn’t have a stick up their bum?