The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday.
In an attempt to start a discussion about the race, I am pasting a small blurb that I sent to friends:
One of the best-kept secrets in sports is that this year’s field is amazingly talented. How talented?
You have a horse who was the first in 6 years to sweep all 3 prep races in Louisiana, improving his speed figures in each race, and bringing a strong closing running style and the ability to run in traffic with him. The last horse to sweep those 3 races went off the Derby favorite - this horse? He’s 20-1 on the morning line. (International Star)
There’s a horse who won his Dubai prep by 8 widening lengths while being eased up, and has sensational breeding to go the distance with an internationally acclaimed trainer who has sent 6 horses to America before - all 6 finished in the top 3. He’s also 20-1. (Mubtaahij)
How about a horse, who, like Big Brown in 2008, comes in having won all 3 of his starts including a big-figure win in the Florida Derby? Except this horse didn’t run a 108 speed figure in Florida like Big Brown. He ran faster, a 110. Big Brown was 2-1; this horse is 12-1. (Materiality)
There’s a horse who is 4-for-5 with his only loss a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His two starts this year resulted in easy wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. He’s 8-1. (Carpe Diem)
How about a horse who lost two photos to the second choice, then won his final Derby prep by 14 1/4 lengths while setting a track record? He’s 12-1. (Firing Line)
There’s a horse who had a throat procedure after looking like he was going to win a prep, but stopped; after the surgery he won the Wood Memorial impressively looking like the Derby distance would be even better. 15-1. (Frosted)
Finally, there’s a horse who ran a Beyer figure of 102 last year, and figures of 105 and 108 this year. He’s never run a bad race, and would be no worse than second choice in any recent Derby. This year, he’s 15-1. (Upstart)
The second choice? He’s merely won all six starts, and comes off an easy win in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s trained by the biggest name in Derby training, Bob Baffert. (Dortmund)
Who gets to be favored over this powerhouse bunch? American Pharoah (yes, his name is misspelled) has won his last 4 starts by a total of 22 lengths, and won his final prep (Arkansas Derby) with ludicrous ease. He’s also trained by Baffert, and is being hyped like few horses I’ve ever seen.
I’m going to use a betting technique that has worked for me in the past - key two horses over and under the logical contenders. At this moment, my two horses will be Frosted, and a horse I haven’t yet mentioned - a longshot named Bolo. Frosted won that Wood race while being 3 wide early and 4 wide late, so that race was even better than it looks. He represents a good value to me.
Bolo finished second and third to Dortmund in his last two, but his last race was a totally crazy ride by the jockey. He was taken ultra wide for no reason and actually ran further than the winner. At 30-1 for this horse bred to go longer, I’ll take a shot.
If you bet this race, good luck! There are so many good horses, you’ll have to work hard to find a bad one!
