I dunno. If you count up total votes for Congress in 2016, Arizona Republicans got a lot more than Arizona Democrats. More people voted in the Republican presidential primary than the Democratic presidential primary, as well. Hillary actually did a lot better than the down-ballot numbers would have suggested, and she still lost the state by something like 90,000 votes.
Whether it’s Kelli Ward or someone else, all the Republican candidate will need to do is just get Republicans to show up.
I think a closer look at the numbers show that there are lots of likely Democrats who didn’t show up in the last election, so if they can be motivated, there’s a decent opportunity. Not a sure thing by any means, but more than a sliver of a chance, IMO.
You think you’re going to get people to vote in the midterms who didn’t vote in the presidential election? Good luck with that!
And just to be clear, I’m not talking about any individual voters. I’m talking about the net vote.
We’ll see, but I’m pretty sure that’s what happened in 06, at least relatively speaking, IIRC.
My recollection of 2006 is not that more Democrats showed up than normal, but that independent voters swung to the Democrats, over dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and a large number of GOP scandals. Of course, that could certainly happen in this case too.
Marsha Blackburn, running for the GOP senate seat in Tennessee, has (or had) close ties to a neo confederate defender of slavery, inviting him to give an invocation to congress:
No longer shocked by all the close ties between Republicans in office and white supremacists, but still saddened.
It’s only going to get worse. The white nationalists have been encouraged since Trump won the GOP convention. The improbable victory of someone who, while probably not really a white nationalist himself, still used white nationalism as a major galvanizing force in his campaign, emboldened them even more. I wasn’t being hyperbolic when I pointed out on election night that we could see the return of the Jim Crow era. Maybe not everywhere, but in certain parts of the country. People don’t see it yet because it’s still just rhetoric, but pretty soon, if unchecked, rhetoric will become devastating racist policy.
And it’s worth repeating: the progressives are splintering. There is no united opposition against them. Progressives and even independents are bound by disapproval of Trump but on little else. Factions create a vacuum that can be filled by groups on the fringes. America is more of a conservative country than a progressive one. The right wing fringes, if well organized and financed well enough, can win. And they can be terrifying.
I really am curious how tonight’s results will affect political calculus in DC.
Last night was a moment in time. A good sign for the democrats but a lot can happen between now and next November.
Last night was the first warning sign for the GOP and the first sign that made me even remotely hopeful. Also good to know that the progressive movement and Democrats can survive some infighting.
The Mueller investigation is going to force Trump’s hand. He will be tempted to shut it down but he is running out of time to do that without his party facing some serious political consequences. They’ll also need to pass tax reform and if they can’t even do that - and it’s looking less and less likely - then the GOP will go home next year with having total governmental control on the one hand while having accomplished absolutely nothing legislatively. That would be a titanic disaster for the GOP heading into next fall.