2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Pool

They’re better than last season, but again, they have a very Kansas and Arizona-esque way of bowing out of the tournament early.

Two 4-seeds have lost to 13-seeds, and Auburn was almost the third one to go down. Damn, that was a nail biter!

I used to mistakenly think UMBC stood for UMass-Boston College, as though it were a sister school of the Boston College.

HOLY SHIT!!!

A 16 seed has just beaten a 1 seed for the first time EVER!

WOW.

Perhaps they were NOT better than last season.

Jeebus. Not only did UMBC win, they CRUSHED VA by twenty. Told you they were a tourney soft child, but I certainly didn’t anticipate this, nor did anyone else. Another bracket buster.

I originally had 2/3/4/5 seeds in my Final Four, realized I should have at least one #1 seed in there, so went back and put in Virginia thinking they’d rally after the injury to Hunter and might be a value pick from people shying away from them for that. Oops. Still glad to be around to see a historic upset though.

No 5-12 upsets, pretty rare. Two 13s-over-4s and the 16-over-1 though.

I’m tied for second from the bottom of the SDMB Bracketeers, but at least I didn’t pick Virginia or Arizona as my champion!

Damn…my UK squad looked pretty good in the second half taking down Buffalo. If they make it to the Elite 8, there’s a great chance they get to play Cincinnati! That would be awesome.

Tennessee loses a buzzer-beater to Loyola Chicago. There goes my bracket!

And the higher seeds just keep on falling. North Carolina, Michigan State… Nevada’s comeback win over Cincy! Are you kidding me?

It looks like at this point, less than half of the brackets in the pool have a National Champ pick that’s still alive. :eek:

I don’t think I have ever seen a tournament that’s been so wildly unpredictable.

Since most brackets are for shit now, best commercial of the tourmanemt is down to Turtle-rat or Broken Ankles. Challenges?

My main entry is in the 45th percentile. I think about half the entries are never filled out completely so somehow I have negative points. By far the worst entry I’ve ever had and I’ve been doing these since paper entries in the 1980’s.

How Sweet (16) it is! Go 'Noles!

And a 2nd #1 goes down. Xavier joins UVA on the long plane ride home.

In one of my brackets I have 13 of the 16 teams right so far. But I also had Wichita State in the championship game, sooo…

Man this tournament is blowing my mind. I’ve never seen so much parity.

Once again, here’s way more information than you ever needed to know about our pool.

According to 538, Frosted 1 is the bracket most likely to win at 21%; Jahiegel is the person most likely to win at 29%.

Interesting (to me) trivia:

  • 5 of 38 brackets have both of their finalists left.
  • One bracket has both Elite 8 teams from the South (aka Virginia, aka upper left) bracket.
  • Six brackets have both Elite 8 teams from the West (aka Xavier, aka lower left) bracket.
  • Loyola Chicago was picked for the Sweet 16 (4x) as often as Florida State (2x), Texas A&M (1x), Kansas State (1x), and Syracuse (0x) combined.
  • Most common wrong picks: Virginia over UMBC (everyone), Wichita State over Marshall (all but one), and Virginia, UNC, and Michigan State to the Sweet 16 (all but two).

Obligatory data dump (use the old forum skin for viewing):


Standings:                            PPR Points    Max
 1. Jahiegel                          840    440   1280
    Jahiegel 2                        840    440   1280
    Final                             520    440    960
 4. Fire Steve Alford                 800    430   1230
    cugel 1                           480    430    910
 6. Paul Casey                        480    420    900
 7. Frosted 1                        1080    410   1490
 8. Kansas All The Way                880    400   1280
    Kimble (0)                        840    400   1240
10. Kimble (-2)                       840    390   1230
    basset hound 1                    280    390    670
12. Shoeless                          480    370    850
    Hungry Hungry Haruspex            320    370    690
    espn80563733 1                    600    370    970
    FGIE GO UK3                       960    370   1330
16. Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.    480    360    840
    There Goes My Heart               400    360    760
    FGIE GO UK2                       320    360    680
    Eric70231 1                       520    360    880
    Lamar Mundane                     320    360    680
    Alas, still no Tigers :(          960    360   1320
    cugel 3                           200    360    560
    Frosty's FunZs                    120    360    480
24. Now, Voyager                      600    350    950
    FGIE GO UK!!                     1080    350   1430
26. ESPNFAN99052289 1                 320    340    660
    Kimble (2)                        160    340    500
    InGardWeTrust                     560    340    900
29. etv78 1                           520    330    850
    Happy Lendervedder               1040    330   1370
    rckrllh2 1                        440    330    770
32. Ponch8 1                          320    320    640
33. Frosty's Money Ball               920    310   1230
34. Alas, no Tigers :(                600    300    900
35. HoopsDawg235 2                    800    290   1090
    How Green Was My Valley           640    290    930
37. Purple Passion                    920    280   1200
38. Now 100% Collusion Free           400    270    670
Winning Shares (out of 32768)
-----------------------------
Fire Steve Alford                                    5098.000   15.558
Frosted 1                                            3958.000   12.079
Kansas All The Way                                   3592.800   10.964
Jahiegel 2                                           2976.467    9.083
FGIE GO UK3                                          2806.000    8.563
Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.                       2033.000    6.204
Jahiegel                                             2030.467    6.196
Alas, still no Tigers :(                             1498.000    4.572
Happy Lendervedder                                   1493.000    4.556
espn80563733 1                                       1223.000    3.732
Final                                                 974.467    2.974
Frosty's Money Ball                                   913.000    2.786
FGIE GO UK!!                                          766.000    2.338
Kimble (2)                                            608.000    1.855
basset hound 1                                        468.000    1.428
Paul Casey                                            448.000    1.367
Shoeless                                              420.000    1.282
Now, Voyager                                          418.000    1.276
Kimble (0)                                            344.000    1.050
Eric70231 1                                           168.000    0.513
Purple Passion                                        146.000    0.446
InGardWeTrust                                         145.000    0.443
Hungry Hungry Haruspex                                100.000    0.305
etv78 1                                                44.000    0.134
Alas, no Tigers :(                                     44.000    0.134
Lamar Mundane                                          40.800    0.125
rckrllh2 1                                             12.000    0.037
Now 100% Collusion Free                                 0.000    0.000
cugel 1                                                 0.000    0.000
cugel 3                                                 0.000    0.000
Ponch8 1                                                0.000    0.000
How Green Was My Valley                                 0.000    0.000
FGIE GO UK2                                             0.000    0.000
ESPNFAN99052289 1                                       0.000    0.000
Frosty's FunZs                                          0.000    0.000
Kimble (-2)                                             0.000    0.000
HoopsDawg235 2                                          0.000    0.000
There Goes My Heart                                     0.000    0.000
FiveThirtyEight Probabilities
-----------------------------
Frosted 1                                                         21.251
Jahiegel 2                                                        17.718
Kansas All The Way                                                12.861
FGIE GO UK3                                                       11.916
Jahiegel                                                           9.402
Fire Steve Alford                                                  6.263
FGIE GO UK!!                                                       4.366
Happy Lendervedder                                                 2.973
Alas, still no Tigers :(                                           2.869
Kimble (0)                                                         2.335
Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.                                     1.910
Final                                                              1.793
Frosty's Money Ball                                                1.216
Paul Casey                                                         0.892
Purple Passion                                                     0.639
espn80563733 1                                                     0.521
Now, Voyager                                                       0.245
Eric70231 1                                                        0.212
InGardWeTrust                                                      0.145
etv78 1                                                            0.113
Hungry Hungry Haruspex                                             0.095
basset hound 1                                                     0.092
Shoeless                                                           0.058
Alas, no Tigers :(                                                 0.044
Kimble (2)                                                         0.032
Lamar Mundane                                                      0.027
rckrllh2 1                                                         0.011
Frosty's FunZs                                                     0.000
Now 100% Collusion Free                                            0.000
ESPNFAN99052289 1                                                  0.000
Kimble (-2)                                                        0.000
FGIE GO UK2                                                        0.000
cugel 3                                                            0.000
HoopsDawg235 2                                                     0.000
Ponch8 1                                                           0.000
How Green Was My Valley                                            0.000
There Goes My Heart                                                0.000
cugel 1                                                            0.000
FiveThirtyEight Probabilities By Person
---------------------------------------
28.913  Jahiegel
22.467  Frosted
16.282  sgenetti77
12.919  62Shoeless
 6.263  magnusblitz
 3.552  divemaster1313
 2.973  ESPNFAN28919619
 2.367  KimbleSD
 1.910  Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.
 0.892  casey1505
 0.521  espn80563733
 0.245  asianmike
 0.212  Thing Fish
 0.145  ThatBuckyGuy
 0.113  etv78
 0.095  Jules Andre
 0.092  basset hound
 0.027  jcatcher43
 0.011  rckrllrh
 0      Chadtastic Sheldon
 0      cugel
 0      HoopsDawg235
 0      Ponch8
 0      zoog's pix
Outright Winner Chances
-----------------------
Fire Steve Alford                                        4972   15.173
Frosted 1                                                3662   11.176
Kansas All The Way                                       3448   10.522
FGIE GO UK3                                              2532    7.727
Jahiegel 2                                               2304    7.031
Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.                           1792    5.469
Alas, still no Tigers :(                                 1486    4.535
Happy Lendervedder                                       1474    4.498
Final, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 2                              1316    4.016
espn80563733 1                                           1080    3.296
Jahiegel                                                 1056    3.223
Frosty's Money Ball                                       837    2.554
FGIE GO UK!!                                              766    2.338
Final, Jahiegel                                           754    2.301
Kimble (2)                                                608    1.855
Final, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 2, Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.        
                                                          544    1.660
FGIE GO UK3, Frosted 1                                    476    1.453
basset hound 1                                            468    1.428
Paul Casey                                                448    1.367
Now, Voyager                                              368    1.123
Shoeless                                                  348    1.062
Kimble (0)                                                312    0.952
Eric70231 1                                               168    0.513
Jahiegel 2, Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.                162    0.494
Fire Steve Alford, Frosty's Money Ball                    152    0.464
Shoeless, espn80563733 1                                  144    0.439
InGardWeTrust                                             142    0.433
Purple Passion                                            104    0.317
Fire Steve Alford, Now, Voyager                           100    0.305
Hungry Hungry Haruspex                                     96    0.293
Kansas All The Way, Purple Passion                         84    0.256
Kansas All The Way, Lamar Mundane                          72    0.220
Frosted 1, espn80563733 1                                  70    0.214
Kansas All The Way, Kimble (0)                             64    0.195
FGIE GO UK3, Frosted 1, espn80563733 1                     48    0.146
Kansas All The Way, Squirrel's Stupendiferous Sel.         48    0.146
Alas, no Tigers :(                                         41    0.125
FGIE GO UK3, espn80563733 1                                40    0.122
etv78 1                                                    36    0.110
Alas, still no Tigers :(, Final, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 2      24    0.073
Final, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 2, Kansas All The Way            24    0.073
Happy Lendervedder, rckrllh2 1                             24    0.073
Final, Jahiegel, Jahiegel 2, Kansas All The Way, Lamar Mundane
                                                           24    0.073
Alas, still no Tigers :(, Final, Jahiegel                  18    0.055
Happy Lendervedder, etv78 1                                12    0.037
Frosted 1, Hungry Hungry Haruspex                           8    0.024
Alas, no Tigers :(, InGardWeTrust                           6    0.018
Frosted 1, etv78 1                                          4    0.012
Frosted 1, Happy Lendervedder                               2    0.006
How Green Was My Valley                                     0    0.000
cugel 1                                                     0    0.000
There Goes My Heart                                         0    0.000
Lamar Mundane                                               0    0.000
Ponch8 1                                                    0    0.000
HoopsDawg235 2                                              0    0.000
cugel 3                                                     0    0.000
FGIE GO UK2                                                 0    0.000
Frosty's FunZs                                              0    0.000
Now 100% Collusion Free                                     0    0.000
ESPNFAN99052289 1                                           0    0.000
Kimble (-2)                                                 0    0.000
Final                                                       0    0.000
rckrllh2 1                                                  0    0.000

Composite predictions (asterisk = correct; hyphen = wrong):
-------- Final  1 ----------
10x  1 -Virginia
 5x  1  Villanova
 3x  1  Kansas
     2 -Cincinnati
     2  Duke
     2 -North Carolina
     4 -Arizona
 2x  3  Michigan
 1x  1 -Xavier
     2  Purdue
     3 -Michigan State
     3 -Tennessee
     5  Kentucky
     6 -Florida

-------- Final  2 ----------
15x  1 -Virginia
10x  1  Villanova
 9x  1  Kansas
 7x  2  Duke
     2 -North Carolina
     3 -Michigan State
 5x  4 -Arizona
 4x  2  Purdue
 3x  2 -Cincinnati
     3  Michigan
 2x  3 -Tennessee
     5  Kentucky
 1x  1 -Xavier
     6 -Florida

-------- Final  4 ----------
23x  1  Villanova
17x  2 -North Carolina
16x  1 -Virginia
14x  1  Kansas
11x  3 -Michigan State
10x  2  Duke
     2  Purdue
 9x  3  Michigan
 7x  4 -Arizona
 6x  2 -Cincinnati
     4  Gonzaga
 5x  1 -Xavier
 4x  5  Kentucky
 3x  4 -Auburn
 2x  3 -Tennessee
     6 -Florida
 1x  3  Texas Tech
     4 -Wichita State
     5  West Virginia
     6 -Houston
     6 -Miami (FL)
     7  Nevada
    10 -Texas

-------- Final  8 ----------
32x  1  Villanova
28x  1  Kansas
24x  1 -Virginia
     2  Purdue
22x  4  Gonzaga
21x  2 -North Carolina
20x  3 -Michigan State
17x  2  Duke
16x  2 -Cincinnati
14x  3  Michigan
13x  1 -Xavier
11x  3 -Tennessee
 9x  4 -Arizona
 7x  4 -Auburn
 6x  6 -Florida
 5x  3  Texas Tech
     5  Kentucky
 4x  4 -Wichita State
     6 -Miami (FL)
 3x  6 -Houston
    10 -Butler
    10 -Texas
 2x  5  Clemson
     5 -Ohio State
     5  West Virginia
     7  Nevada
 1x  8 -Missouri
    10 -Oklahoma
    11  Loyola (IL)
    12 -New Mexico State
    15 -Georgia State

-------- Final 16 ----------
38x  1 *Villanova
37x  1 *Kansas
36x  1 -Virginia
     2 -North Carolina
     3 -Michigan State
35x  1 -Xavier
33x  2 *Duke
     2 *Purdue
28x  2 -Cincinnati
     3 *Michigan
27x  3 -Tennessee
     4 *Gonzaga
23x  4 -Auburn
20x  5 *Kentucky
     6 -Florida
19x  4 -Wichita State
18x  4 -Arizona
15x  3 *Texas Tech
     5 *West Virginia
10x  5 -Ohio State
 8x  5 *Clemson
 7x  6 -Houston
    12 -New Mexico State
 6x  6 -Miami (FL)
 5x  7 *Nevada
 4x  7 -Rhode Island
    10 -Butler
    10 -Texas
    11 *Loyola (IL)
    12 -Murray State
 3x 11 -San Diego State
 2x  6 -Texas Christian
     9 *Florida State
    14 -Stephen F. Austin
 1x  7 -Arkansas
     7 *Texas A&M
     8 -Creighton
     8 -Missouri
     8 -Seton Hall
     9 *Kansas State
    10 -Oklahoma
    10 -Providence
    11 -St. Bonaventure
    12 -South Dakota State
    14 -Wright State
    15 -Georgia State

-------- Final 32 ----------
38x  1 *Kansas
     1 *Villanova
     1 -Virginia
     1 *Xavier
     2 *Duke
37x  2 *Cincinnati
     2 *North Carolina
     2 *Purdue
     3 *Michigan State
     4 -Wichita State
36x  3 *Tennessee
     4 *Auburn
     4 *Gonzaga
34x  3 *Michigan
     4 -Arizona
33x  6 *Florida
32x  3 *Texas Tech
     5 *Kentucky
31x  6 -Texas Christian
29x  5 *Ohio State
28x  5 *West Virginia
     7 *Rhode Island
    10 *Butler
27x  6 *Houston
26x  8 -Virginia Tech
25x  8 -Creighton
23x  5 *Clemson
     9 *Florida State
21x  6 -Miami (FL)
     8 *Seton Hall
20x  7 *Texas A&M
    10 -Texas
18x  7 *Nevada
    10 -Providence
17x  9 -North Carolina State
    11 *Loyola (IL)
15x  8 -Missouri
    12 -New Mexico State
13x  9 *Kansas State
12x  9 *Alabama
11x 11 -San Diego State
10x  7 -Arkansas
    10 -Oklahoma
    12 -Murray State
 9x 12 -South Dakota State
 7x 11 *Syracuse
 6x 12 -Davidson
    14 -Stephen F. Austin
 5x 11 -St. Bonaventure
 4x 13 *Buffalo
    14 -Montana
 2x 13 -College of Charleston
    13 -North Carolina-Greensboro
    14 -Wright State
 1x 13 *Marshall
    14 -Bucknell
    15 -Cal State Fullerton
    15 -Georgia State
    15 -Lipscomb

I am currently #1 in my office pool 25/32 and 10/16 correct picks. Pretty good for someone who does not follow basketball and has watched < 10 min of it this year.
(I was at UW-Platteville at the same time as Bo Ryan but thats it for any basketball connection)

Brian

My bracket (Fire Steve Alford) is sitting pretty for the moment, but missing two of my Final Four (UVa and Mich St) as well as one finalist (UVa) really hurts.

I guess this has kinda morphed into the 2018 NCAA tourney omnibus thread in addition to our brackets, so…

WOW. What an exciting second half of the Nevada/Loyola game. And the Ramblers advance again! I hadn’t looked it up, but the announcers said that Loyola has now won three tournament games by a total of FOUR points! Incredible! Can this last?

I feel like if UK advances that it won’t come down to the wire like that but who knows anymore. Plus UK has to beat K-State first. Many consider this part of the bracket as fortuitous for UK to walk into the Final Four, but the way this thing is going, I am no longer sure about anything.

Texas A&M is getting schooled, though.