So if today’s ignorant millennials are letting us down in the voting booth, who can save us? 
Wow! In 2010 that demographic was R+21; in 2014 R+16. And you’re now telling us this next election looks like D+22 ? [SIZE=“4”]D + Twenty-frigging Two!![/SIZE]
I’m calling out the band: ♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♬♬♬♩♩♩♩♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♩♫ ♩♩ ♩♩♫ ♬♬♩♩
I admit to prefering Jack Hylton over Mitch Miller’s version. But let’s do not encourage Barbra Streisand’s somber rendition. :smack:
I’m an optimist at heart, and a Democrat, but I’d encourage you not to count your chickens just yet, my friend…
I differ politically from various family members, in some cases by a long way, and yet I can’t imagine openly campaigning against any of them if they ran for office. I can only conclude that that guy must be a massive asshole if so many of his family members are doing this.
And if we win, what we’ve mostly won is the right to clean up after a crackhead chimpanzee made dinner.
You’ve not been following my posts if you mistake me for an optimist.
Nevertheless the chance that both Houses of Congress turn blue after November appears to be 25% or so. It behooves us to pick a rendition just on the off-chance that we have to dust off the Democratic merry-makers.
This is the saddest thing I’ve read all month.
It’s become absolutely clear that there is virtually no connection between a politician’s actions and their success.
The chance both stay red are probably about the same.
Chickens not yet hatched. Do not count.
Nelson pulling ahead of challenger Rick Scott in FL, up by 7. 'Twas tied 20 days ago.
How the GOP just might maintain control of the U.S. House: The Forecast: Republicans could keep the House. Here's how. | CNN Politics
I thought Harry Enten was at 538. Did CNN hire him away?
Because 538’s model currently gives the Dems an 84.6% chance of regaining the House. And Enten’s saying they’ve only got a 72% chance.
I thought I’d post the probabilities that 538 gives in races where the odds of the Dem winning are between 10% and 90%, with seats currently GOP-held in italics:
Manchin (D-WV) 88%
Tester (D-MT) 86%
Donnelly (D-IN) 85%
Nelson (D-FL) 64%
Sinema (D-AZ) 63%
McCaskill (D-MO) 61%
Rosen (D-NV) 45%
Heitkamp (D-ND) 35%
Bredesen (D-TN) 25%
Beto (D-TX) 21%
Espy (D-MS) 17%
Thoughts:
I saw a statistic somewhere that in wave years, 70-80% of the toss-up races go to one party.
Yep, back in February.
I’ve taken the liberty of color-coding according to the Wikipedia pundit’s consensus. Light blue is “Lean D”; Pink is “Lean R”; Gray is “Tossup.”
IIUC correctly, D’s need eight of these to get the magic 51, e.g. all the Tossups plus a single pink like Heitkamp or Beto. Is that correct?
That is correct. All 6 of the incumbent D’s on that list need to win, plus 2 pickups. Or 6-n incumbents need to win, and 2+n pickups, for some non-negative n. (Yes, I’m a math geek. This is how we talk. :))
Counting the number of seats isn’t the best metric, since they’re likely to be fairly strongly correlated. If one outperforms their polling, it’s likely that others will, too.
Krugman says Trump will try to claim fraud if Dems win the house. Not a shocking prediction
I don’t know how much reliance I’d put on that. Different states in different parts of the country with very different demographics, and all that. I’m sure changes between here and Election Day will be positively correlated, absent a major scandal involving a particular candidate. But how strongly? Hard to say.
Trump is polling slightly ahead of where Obama was at this point before his first midterms: MSN