Color me surprised! Trump is already positioning himself not to be blamed for a Blue Wave: MSN
Republicans are peppering Florida voters (of which I am one) with claims that Andrew Gillum will implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum is not going to implement a state income tax. Andrew Gillum can’t implement a state income tax, and both he and the Republicans know it. It would require a public vote on a state constitutional amendment, and there isn’t one on the ballot. And Gillum has not at any point expressed any interest in a state income tax.
But that hasn’t stopped the GOP from lying their asses off to frighten the old people. Again.
Yeah, it turns out that when your agenda is fundamentally unpopular and dictated by plutocrats, all you have left is the option to lie your ass off and hope nobody notices.
Good heavens, if that were true and able to be true, it would be so very terrible that someone was trying to fix the 3rd most regressive state tax system in the country.
Interesting divergence between forecasters:
538, OTOH, currently is showing an average gain of 40 seats, with their 80% confidence interval running from a 20-seat gain to a 61-seat gain.
Perhaps, but not remotely the point.
I doubt there’s going to be a blue wave. I think the House barely goes to the Democrats, which is a turn of events that might end up helping Donald Trump’s presidency more than hurting it. If I were Donald Trump, I could see a Democratic House as a threat but also as a huge opportunity. Trump’s gladiatorial style needs an antagonist, and having House Democrats overplay their new political hand in the House - when they control virtually nothing else - would play right into Trump’s hands. He can still confirm new judges and other appointees up and down the government. He can put pressure on the House to pass budgets that he wants, and he can use the bully pulpit to jab a weak House majority that might very well end up fighting with each other over whether to impeach Trump.
How are you defining a ‘blue wave’?
Please quantify.
Not something that’s easy to define statistically, but IMO, a “blue wave” isn’t just control of the House, but also the Senate and governors’ races. It’s not clear at present that we can achieve this.
It’s extremely likely the DP cannot and never could, especially not defending this many Senate seats this year. Winning the Senate would be a huge victory. Personally if the DP were to break even in the Senate, I’d still consider that a solid victory. More likely they end up down a seat or two, but under the circumstances that = not all that bad. Personally I wouldn’t cry into my cheerios over that( quite likely )kind of result, though I’m sure many would. But you have to be realistic.
I think your definition is far too rigid under the circumstances. If that’s the only result you’ll settle for, I’d argue you are almost guaranteed to feed that pessimism of yours ;). Average midterm House seat loss for a popular president( over 50% approval )is purportedly 14. Average loss for an unpopular president( under 50% approval, i.e. Trump )is 37. If the Dems get more than ~40 seats, I think a blue wave claim is warranted. Taking the House at all( 23 seats or more )is a moderate win. Failure to win the House despite modest gains equals a moderate defeat. Lose seats and it is a catastrophic defeat.
Aw, what happened to that famous asahi optimism?
Pilot Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, who saved 155 lives during the “Miracle on the Hudson”:
I don’t recall him ever being so overtly political. Good for him for speaking out at such a crucial time.
The blue tsunami will be in 2020, when the Republicans have to defend all the seats gained in 2014 thanks to all their anti-ACA anti-Obama lies. Since Democrats vote in presidential years, not only will we maintain the House, Dems are sure to win the Senate and White House. Unless of course Hillary decides to run again.
Trump has his own Willie Horton ad
Trump shocks with racist new ad days before midterms | CNN Politics
surprised it took this long for that to roll out
Michael Cohen is running around town using his final days of freedom saying Trump told him that black people were “too dumb” to vote for Trump.
You have made a great deal of “Democrats are guaranteed to win” posts in the past that didn’t come true.
An election of truly historic significance, in which Truth and Justice are literally pitted versus Greed, Hatred and Ignorance, and 75% of young people don’t feel a need to vote. Wonderful.
This is no Greek tragedy we’re living through, nor a black comedy, nor even a sad sentimental story of unrequited love. It is a new genre: a nauseating fusion of slapstick and horror.
If 25% of that age group comes out for a midterm it would be an improvement over past performance anyway.
Previous midterms saw Millennials 18 to 24 voting at only 20% and 25 to 29 at 26%.
It has been a very sad fact that younger voters are not just voting less than older voters, but they are voting less than previous generations did when they were that age.
There is though good reason to think that younger voters will be more coming into their own this time. I’m not finding that Reuters poll but Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP) has come up with very different numbers, 40% as will “definitely vote” in the midterms.
Now note, it is not all Democratic youth; young GOP voters are more engaged too.
Data from Tufts, looking only at the younger 18 to 24 year old cohort of that group which usually votes the least, on average 20%, is consistent with that big increase, showing 34% as being “extremely likely” to vote.
I personally doubt it will hit that 40% mark. But given the hints seen in high younger voter early voting participation and in particular many young first time voters, it would not shock me. And not being significantly more than midterms past would.